- Location
- Wormingford, Essex
Probably very dense populations, huge amount and speed of travelSo where does Farr's law of Epidemics fit into all this? Basically in 1840 he proposed that epidemics follow a bell shaped curve and die out of their own accord. Is there something special about Covid -19 which excuses it from this usual prognosis?
Did he say what proportion of people die in the process?So where does Farr's law of Epidemics fit into all this? Basically in 1840 he proposed that epidemics follow a bell shaped curve and die out of their own accord. Is there something special about Covid -19 which excuses it from this usual prognosis?
No. It will follow the bell shaped curve. We just might hopefully make it smaller and narrower through management and vaccination, as opposed to population reduction and herd immunity.So where does Farr's law of Epidemics fit into all this? Basically in 1840 he proposed that epidemics follow a bell shaped curve and die out of their own accord. Is there something special about Covid -19 which excuses it from this usual prognosis?
Yes, there are bells and there are bells....No. It will follow the bell shaped curve. We just might hopefully make it smaller and narrower through management and vaccination, as opposed to population reduction and herd immunity.
You might not be aware of it but Farr's law does in fact predict a bell shaped curve. He developed the idea during a smallpox outbreak in the 1830's, a disease far more devastating than covid 19, and it would appear that all such events follow the same pattern with or without intervention.No. It will follow the bell shaped curve. We just might hopefully make it smaller and narrower through management and vaccination, as opposed to population reduction and herd immunity.
That’s what I have said is that it will follow a bell shaped curve. It’s the size of the curve that we can affect. If we left it to nature it would be a narrow and tall. We are trying to widen and flatten the curve so the NHS can cope.You might not be aware of it but Farr's law does in fact predict a bell shaped curve. He developed the idea during a smallpox outbreak in the 1830's, a disease far more devastating than covid 19, and it would appear that all such events follow the same pattern with or without intervention.
I was rather hasty in interpreting the intent of your post.That’s what I have said is that it will follow a bell shaped curve. It’s the size of the curve that we can affect. If we left it to nature it would be a narrow and tall. We are trying to widen and flatten the curve so the NHS can cope.
It will be interesting to see which proves to be the more deadly.