Frontier Agriculture
Member
World markets
Chicago wheat traded at a two week high yesterday before ending slightly weaker on the day. US exports were in line with expectations at 395’000mt, taking the total pace to 28% up on this time last year. Funds remain short around 105’000 contracts which, along with the ongoing watch on winter weather conditions, could keep a floor under wheat until the USDA updates acreage next week. Rain in the Plains remains limited in the short term forecast meaning that drought conditions are still a concern in the Western Plains. Temperatures this week are below normal and snow cover is also limited in the west, so there is potential for some crop stress. With record stocks creating a cushion against any crop issues, this weather remains only a watch point unless it becomes significant.
Western Australia had another bout of heavy rain over the Christmas period, making it likely that any wheat remaining in the field will be poor quality feed wheat by now. Talk of quality issues in Argentina is also apparent.
Matif wheat traded at a 6 week high yesterday but the CME contract remained flat, giving a mixed indication of EU wheat. Temperatures across Europe are well below seasonal averages and there is a lack of snow cover in Western Europe which is potentially an issue for wheat crops there. Russia is still in its holiday period but based on the export pace achieved in the first half of the season, will be looking at a large stock build of up to 10mmt when it returns. Algeria will tender tomorrow for March shipment which will be the first indication of 2017 quality offers. Quality variations have been talked of through the year from France, Russia, Argentina and Australia.
UK market
The UK market got off to a slow start for the year. London wheat saw volume gradually pick up through the day, with the last few trades pushing values up to close £0.45/t higher on the day and Jan 17 ending at £139.35/t.
OSR market
Matif OSR rallied €5/t yesterday as the lack of snow cover in Europe has raised fears that the Arctic blast moving in may damage OSR crops in the ground. However, Canadian canola went the other way, indicating that if crops are not damaged by the cold we could see a sharp fall in prices.
Argentina has received more rain in central regions but other areas remain dry with soil moisture deficits building.
Brazilian soybean yields are coming in above expectations in Mato Grosso. The USDA expects the Brazilian crop to break 100mmt for the first time ever.
Chicago wheat traded at a two week high yesterday before ending slightly weaker on the day. US exports were in line with expectations at 395’000mt, taking the total pace to 28% up on this time last year. Funds remain short around 105’000 contracts which, along with the ongoing watch on winter weather conditions, could keep a floor under wheat until the USDA updates acreage next week. Rain in the Plains remains limited in the short term forecast meaning that drought conditions are still a concern in the Western Plains. Temperatures this week are below normal and snow cover is also limited in the west, so there is potential for some crop stress. With record stocks creating a cushion against any crop issues, this weather remains only a watch point unless it becomes significant.
Western Australia had another bout of heavy rain over the Christmas period, making it likely that any wheat remaining in the field will be poor quality feed wheat by now. Talk of quality issues in Argentina is also apparent.
Matif wheat traded at a 6 week high yesterday but the CME contract remained flat, giving a mixed indication of EU wheat. Temperatures across Europe are well below seasonal averages and there is a lack of snow cover in Western Europe which is potentially an issue for wheat crops there. Russia is still in its holiday period but based on the export pace achieved in the first half of the season, will be looking at a large stock build of up to 10mmt when it returns. Algeria will tender tomorrow for March shipment which will be the first indication of 2017 quality offers. Quality variations have been talked of through the year from France, Russia, Argentina and Australia.
UK market
The UK market got off to a slow start for the year. London wheat saw volume gradually pick up through the day, with the last few trades pushing values up to close £0.45/t higher on the day and Jan 17 ending at £139.35/t.
OSR market
Matif OSR rallied €5/t yesterday as the lack of snow cover in Europe has raised fears that the Arctic blast moving in may damage OSR crops in the ground. However, Canadian canola went the other way, indicating that if crops are not damaged by the cold we could see a sharp fall in prices.
Argentina has received more rain in central regions but other areas remain dry with soil moisture deficits building.
Brazilian soybean yields are coming in above expectations in Mato Grosso. The USDA expects the Brazilian crop to break 100mmt for the first time ever.