Frontier Agriculture
Member
World markets
Chicago wheat was lower again yesterday pressured by cooler weather across the US corn belt and reports of improved yields and rising crop estimates from the FSU. However, hot and dry conditions remain across the US Plains and Canada, bringing further bad news for spring wheat crops which have been downgraded again to just 33% good to excellent. Corn ratings also fell 2% to 62% good to excellent in last night's crop ratings, down from 76% this time last year.
The hot weather and dry conditions across the US, Canada and Australia have been well documented but as crop estimates in these areas have been decreasing, estimates for Russia and Ukraine have been creeping up. Russia has had some harvest delays but the crop size is likely to be close to last year's record crop of 72.5mmt. Russian yield estimates have been increased by 5% on a week ago and by 8% from last year. Ukraine estimated a crop of 22mmt last week and with yields looking promising this week, the government talks of a potential 23mmt crop (USDA 24mmt).
EU wheat futures were lower yesterday following the US down. Despite a very wet weekend for Northern Europe, crop analyst MARS has left EU yields unchanged this week so any concern seems to be around quality rather than crop size. Data from France suggests that most of the crop is of adequate quality for normal export businesses; the country is well through harvest now at over 70% cut. Germany, however, will have a lot of wheat ready to be combined before this heavy rain and quality for the estimated two thirds of wheat still to harvest could be impacted.
UK market
London wheat closed down £1.75/t yesterday at £146.80/t Nov 17. Lower US markets pressured values downwards.
OSR market
Chicago is higher today after turning around overnight on lower crop ratings. The market will remain volatile through this period on each forecast or crop report. Good to excellent ratings for soybeans dropped 4 points from last week's 61% and are now 14 points lower than last year's 71%.
Global stocks of oilseeds remain plentiful and while sentiment may chop and change with the weather, fundamentals remain bearish.
Canada's weather outlook is improving which will limit further crop losses. Its crop is estimated at 18-19mmt compared to last year's 19mmt.
Chicago wheat was lower again yesterday pressured by cooler weather across the US corn belt and reports of improved yields and rising crop estimates from the FSU. However, hot and dry conditions remain across the US Plains and Canada, bringing further bad news for spring wheat crops which have been downgraded again to just 33% good to excellent. Corn ratings also fell 2% to 62% good to excellent in last night's crop ratings, down from 76% this time last year.
The hot weather and dry conditions across the US, Canada and Australia have been well documented but as crop estimates in these areas have been decreasing, estimates for Russia and Ukraine have been creeping up. Russia has had some harvest delays but the crop size is likely to be close to last year's record crop of 72.5mmt. Russian yield estimates have been increased by 5% on a week ago and by 8% from last year. Ukraine estimated a crop of 22mmt last week and with yields looking promising this week, the government talks of a potential 23mmt crop (USDA 24mmt).
EU wheat futures were lower yesterday following the US down. Despite a very wet weekend for Northern Europe, crop analyst MARS has left EU yields unchanged this week so any concern seems to be around quality rather than crop size. Data from France suggests that most of the crop is of adequate quality for normal export businesses; the country is well through harvest now at over 70% cut. Germany, however, will have a lot of wheat ready to be combined before this heavy rain and quality for the estimated two thirds of wheat still to harvest could be impacted.
UK market
London wheat closed down £1.75/t yesterday at £146.80/t Nov 17. Lower US markets pressured values downwards.
OSR market
Chicago is higher today after turning around overnight on lower crop ratings. The market will remain volatile through this period on each forecast or crop report. Good to excellent ratings for soybeans dropped 4 points from last week's 61% and are now 14 points lower than last year's 71%.
Global stocks of oilseeds remain plentiful and while sentiment may chop and change with the weather, fundamentals remain bearish.
Canada's weather outlook is improving which will limit further crop losses. Its crop is estimated at 18-19mmt compared to last year's 19mmt.