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Dr Robert Goldman: Future predictions

Discussion in 'Agricultural Matters' started by JP1, Jun 4, 2016.

  1. JP1

    JP1 Member


      In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people don't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again? Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.


      Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.

      Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

      Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

      Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. By 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

      Autonomous Cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000 km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year.

      Most car companies may become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.

      Insurance Companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

      Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

      Electric cars won’t become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.

      With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

      Health: There will be companies that will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breathe into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.

      3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large number of spare parts they used to have in the past.

      At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

      Business Opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed in to failure in the 21st century.

      Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

      Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields. Agroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow-produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups that will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

      There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.

      Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.

      Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.

      Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.

      Robert M. Goldman MD, PhD, DO, FAASP


      World Chairman-International Medical Commission

      Co-Founder & Chairman of the Board-A4M

      Founder & Chairman-International Sports Hall of Fame

      Co-Founder & Chairman-World Academy of Anti-Aging Medicine

      President Emeritus-National Academy of Sports Medicine (NASM)

      Chairman-U.S. Sports Academy’s Board of Visitors

  2. nick...

    nick... Member

    south norfolk
    Certainly makes you think.id like to look at this in ten years and see whatvwas right or wrong.as for britcoin i thought they were just about bankrupt already
    Jackov Altraids likes this.
  3. Muck Spreader

    Muck Spreader Member

    I look a Bitcoin the same way as a do Western Union, Nigerian Princes, and PPI something for a virus checker to deal with. If 80% of all jobs disappear the whole world will probably descend into a new dark age similar to the fall of the Roman empire. With a total breakdown in civilised society and where mass starvation and warlords will be the new order of the day. :(
  4. JP1

    JP1 Member

    All those plastic veal petri dishes and insect ready meals may mean I can have my pick of a lovely hill farm in Galloway for my cows ........
    MickMoor likes this.
  5. Poorbuthappy

    Poorbuthappy Member

    Interesting the one about longevity.
    I read that if you strip out child mortality, the increase in longevity is actually quite slow, even compared to several hundred years ago.
  6. 3D printing is becoming mainstream, imagine that part you need so urgently and the parts house is closed.................into the workshop and make it yourself.
  7. Pasty

    Pasty Member

    The thing that sticks out for me is that he expects 10% of everything to be printed by 2027. I think that is way over cautious.

    I think we are in the 4th revolution. EV cars like the Nissan Leaf are now affordable and actually, pretty decent. Nissan are now designing a system where you car will act as a battery for your home. Apparently the current Leaf can power a house for 2 days on full charge and most drivers never use more than 30% or something. We have PV panels getting cheaper and more efficient to the point where the FITs don't matter any more. You can get a battery the size of a fridge (like the Tesla Powerwall or whatever it's called) that can store your PV harvest to use when the sun goes in.

    Tesla is an interesting thing. The Model S is a proper car with a good range and although expensive, they are bringing this to the Model X and a new family car, the 3 soon. The big car makers better get on board soon as this is changing FAST.

    Video below has some bad language so don't watch if you are easily offended.

    Feldspar likes this.
  8. lazy farmer

    lazy farmer Member

    som/dor border
    Your already starting to see the effects of this in for example the USA. 8yrs after the great depression the labour participation rate is still only 62.7%. Retail jobs are being replaced my amazon warehouses amazon delivery drivers will be replaced by drones. hence the moves to extreme politics the world over as show by the rise of populist governments leaders etc as centrist polices and monetary policies fail. which goes a long way to explain the rise of Trump and socialist Clinton. IT will be interesting to see these two political idealogises battle it out over the next 5 months.
    I really don't think governments have a handle on automation at all and the corperate world really needs to work on who will be their customers in decades to come. all very very scary, especially when you think that a majority of jobs created in America since the slump have been in oil and gas extraction pipelines etc. an industry the world is supposed to be moving away from.
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2016
  9. More to life

    More to life Member

    However interesting predictions are they are almost always wrong long term. Someone can always say they saw the next big thing coming in the main it's just luck 99% of us just get it wrong.
  10. spin cycle

    spin cycle Member

    north norfolk
    i think there may well be a retail collapse....posh expensive shops no match for internet shopping....already bhs has fallen 11k jobs and not a whimper...compare that to port talbot:scratchhead:
  11. A lot of hot air in those predictions. About 5% of this will be true by 2026. Why 5%, well it's about as accurate as many of Dr Goldmans guesses.
    Robigus and Tarw Coch like this.
  12. Y Fan Wen

    Y Fan Wen Member

    N W Snowdonia
    When I got the little one to help me set up my paypal account linked to ebay, I had no idea how it was going to change my shopping habits. Used to cruise round the farmers co ops and builders merchant trying to get something, failing, and ending up with something else that just about does the job. Now my first port of call is ebay where I get 'exactly' what I want and delivered in a day or 2. I ordered something yesterday afternoon and it was in my box waiting when I got home this teatime.
  13. betweenthelines

    Why worry/

    25 years ago the media was full of that Professor (Lacey was it?)happily predicting that BSE would wipe out all the meat eating population. that was if the Salmonella in eggs didn't get us first.
  14. betweenthelines

    As an aside, wouldn't it be nice if Prof Lacey came on Countryfile to explain how and why he got it soooo wrong?
    KMA, peclova and Tarw Coch like this.
  15. peclova

    peclova Member

    As terribly unfortunate as it maybe for those 11,000 BHS employees, they do not actually contribute anything to the real wealth of this country. Although there are some exceptions. most of which BHS sold was imported. Whilst the sale of those imported products added to GDP, as does a pyramid sales scheme, there is nothing tangible for the underlying UK economy. Port Talbot makes something, adds real value and reduces our dangerously high balance of payments deficit.
  16. peclova

    peclova Member

    Robert M. Goldman MD, PhD, DO, FAASP

    World Chairman-International Medical Commission

    Co-Founder & Chairman of the Board-A4M

    Founder & Chairman-International Sports Hall of Fame

    Co-Founder & Chairman-World Academy of Anti-Aging Medicine

    President Emeritus-National Academy of Sports Medicine (NASM)

    Chairman-U.S. Sports Academy’s Board of Visitors

    Chairman of the Egotistic & Big-heads Association!
  17. milkloss

    milkloss Member

    East Sussex
    It won't be allowed with all the extra health and safety and security that goes with 'robot' machinery. Besides 3d printers will be restricted so you don't use them to make a weapon.
  18. spin cycle

    spin cycle Member

    north norfolk
    i agree with you about manufacturing but our economy is geared to buying in goods....selling them to ourselves and paying for it buy selling expensive property....can it go on:scratchhead:..well it seems to:scratchhead:

    retail is 9 times bigger than ag. in gdp terms and is part of the service side of the economy that generates 77% of gdp

    sad fact is port talbot is loosing about £180/day per employee...for all the brave talk it can't be saved IMO

    i reckon ag subsidies are worth about £450/yr per employee
  19. 7610 super q

    7610 super q Member

    I'm thinking of buying a 3D printer, using it to print another 3D printer, then sending the original back to get my money back.:D
  20. The poor will probably be richer and the rich will also be richer

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