- Location
- S E Glos
I'll second that, though the TFF forecast isn't too bad either, better than met office/BBC.
Drought
- Thread starter shakerator
- Start date
yellow belly
Member
- Location
- south west lincolnshire
since meteo group now supply forecast to the bbc the reliability of their forecasts is far worse than the met office forecast
the problem is computer generated forecast on an app changes every time the computer does a programme run
they have been forecasting rain in a week or 10 days for the past month but when it gets to it there has been non
I now just use the met office forecast animation
- Location
- East yorks
I find the met office app does similar puts a particular weather then changes it, the best part of the app is the animation as it seems fairly accurate as to what will come in the next 24hrs and very often shows a completely different picture to the little icons for a particular location.
- Location
- West Suffolk
Well the beeb has erased the rain for the 1st/2nd.
Put a little shower in for this Wednesday though
Put a little shower in for this Wednesday though
- Location
- south norfolk, uk
Same as us....Well the beeb has erased the rain for the 1st/2nd.
Put a little shower in for this Wednesday though
That will change Tuesday afternoon
- Location
- NSW, Newstralya
I see your drought thread has dried up . . .
NSW towns quietly suffer through drought Tom Rabe
15 Aug 2018, 10:30 a.m.
For the first time in a generation, crop farmers are facing the prospect of harvesting nothing at all.
As NSW farmers battle through a record-breaking drought, the small towns that service the region's agriculturalists are also quietly suffering.
David Thompson, who services and sells farm machinery in Parkes, says his business has dried up by around 90 per cent this year as farmers stop spending.
"It has had a dramatic effect on our business," Mr Thompson told AAP.
"We usually prepare up to 50 or 60 headers (edit - combines for the Poms ) a year, we've done five."
Parkes Chamber of Commerce president Geoff Rice says the entire town is feeling the pinch of the drought.
"It's basically an unseen struggle in the rural towns," Mr Rice said.
"It's an economic cost that we wear as businesses in the town, that's for sure."
The 47-year-old said not only were sales slowing, but businesses were also having to wait longer for their money as farmers struggle to find money to feed their livestock.
"Talking to a lot of businesses in town, they are wearing a lot of debt," Mr Rice said.
"There's not much we can do, you just sit there and know eventually they will pay."
Farmers across NSW are paying hefty sums for fodder to be trucked in from as far as South Australia and Victoria, so they can feed their animals.
Meanwhile, for the first time in a generation, crop farmers are facing the prospect of harvesting nothing at all.
Mr Thompson said he and his staff knew firsthand how hard some farmers were struggling through the drought.
"Farmers are very proud people and they won't generally open up to a lot of people, but they do trust mechanics," he said.
"We're big on mental health here and we've had discussions saying 'if a farmer needs to talk to you because he's got no one else to talk to, I don't care how long you're out there, just talk to him'."
More than 80 per cent of the state is suffering rainfall deficiencies, the Bureau of Meteorology says.
NSW towns quietly suffer through drought Tom Rabe
15 Aug 2018, 10:30 a.m.
For the first time in a generation, crop farmers are facing the prospect of harvesting nothing at all.
As NSW farmers battle through a record-breaking drought, the small towns that service the region's agriculturalists are also quietly suffering.
David Thompson, who services and sells farm machinery in Parkes, says his business has dried up by around 90 per cent this year as farmers stop spending.
"It has had a dramatic effect on our business," Mr Thompson told AAP.
"We usually prepare up to 50 or 60 headers (edit - combines for the Poms ) a year, we've done five."
Parkes Chamber of Commerce president Geoff Rice says the entire town is feeling the pinch of the drought.
"It's basically an unseen struggle in the rural towns," Mr Rice said.
"It's an economic cost that we wear as businesses in the town, that's for sure."
The 47-year-old said not only were sales slowing, but businesses were also having to wait longer for their money as farmers struggle to find money to feed their livestock.
"Talking to a lot of businesses in town, they are wearing a lot of debt," Mr Rice said.
"There's not much we can do, you just sit there and know eventually they will pay."
Farmers across NSW are paying hefty sums for fodder to be trucked in from as far as South Australia and Victoria, so they can feed their animals.
Meanwhile, for the first time in a generation, crop farmers are facing the prospect of harvesting nothing at all.
Mr Thompson said he and his staff knew firsthand how hard some farmers were struggling through the drought.
"Farmers are very proud people and they won't generally open up to a lot of people, but they do trust mechanics," he said.
"We're big on mental health here and we've had discussions saying 'if a farmer needs to talk to you because he's got no one else to talk to, I don't care how long you're out there, just talk to him'."
More than 80 per cent of the state is suffering rainfall deficiencies, the Bureau of Meteorology says.
Honest john
Member
- Location
- Fenland
We have had about 30-60mm though the fenland. With cooler temperatures green crops are growing again. A lot of damage done but it loooks like there will be a harvest now albeit a poor one. Currently raining but a big high pressure building in south west.
Roy our thoughts with our you all.
Roy our thoughts with our you all.
- Location
- NSW, Newstralya
d williams
Member
What do the miners think of that? Aus has exported a lot of coal over the years
TelesnaAg
Member
- Location
- Portland, Victoria - Australia
Climate change and global warmibg are two different things.
1. The climate always changes, africa and sth america were joined at one stage...think about that. The assumption that our environments will stay the same forever just because we are farmers is foolish.
2. Paris climate accord will do zero for climate change. Global population growth and an increase in middle class% is where environmental polution comes from
3. Carbon foot prints of each industry in power generation have not been assessed, thoroughly enough to make informed decisions.
4. In australia we have 100 years of climate records...not even close enough to make any assesment on whats normal whats not...is this the first time in the last 1000 the brezza plains has gone dry?
5. Portland Vic has above average rainfall so does tassie, nth of Perth also ok...why did the paris accord work for me but not Gunnedah?
6. Last year Australia had record grain production...
7. Developing nations are banging in coal fired power stations at a rapid rate, where is the paris accord to stop this?
8. Australia is drifting 70mm a year to the nth east.
The video is propaganda, and some may have to accept in many parts of the world that climates are changing as mother earth evolves...and human population growth is not stopping...
Ant...
1. The climate always changes, africa and sth america were joined at one stage...think about that. The assumption that our environments will stay the same forever just because we are farmers is foolish.
2. Paris climate accord will do zero for climate change. Global population growth and an increase in middle class% is where environmental polution comes from
3. Carbon foot prints of each industry in power generation have not been assessed, thoroughly enough to make informed decisions.
4. In australia we have 100 years of climate records...not even close enough to make any assesment on whats normal whats not...is this the first time in the last 1000 the brezza plains has gone dry?
5. Portland Vic has above average rainfall so does tassie, nth of Perth also ok...why did the paris accord work for me but not Gunnedah?
6. Last year Australia had record grain production...
7. Developing nations are banging in coal fired power stations at a rapid rate, where is the paris accord to stop this?
8. Australia is drifting 70mm a year to the nth east.
The video is propaganda, and some may have to accept in many parts of the world that climates are changing as mother earth evolves...and human population growth is not stopping...
Ant...
RushesToo
Member
- Location
- Fingringhoe
@TelesnaAg You have bundled a lot of stuff in there.
1. Gondwana [500M years ago] was the start of the continents, Africa / America was joined - so was most of everything, but we live only three score years and ten..
2. Paris Climate change is causing people to at least think about CO2, if that is all it achieves it may give your children a chance. Yes the increasing middle class is a problem, but if they grew solar panels instead of burning coal, in fact even nuclear there is some hope for another generation after this.
3. I can't agree enough that there is not enough investigation into total carbon cost of energy production, but I bet a more favourable outcome from wind and solar than coal.
4. 100 years of climate is not enough to consider the climate change strange, but 2010, 2011, 2017, 2018 seem a little close for setting UK extremes, I expect 100 year extremes to be mostly more spread out than this.
5. You have had more rainfall, they less. This is odd, maybe not statistically odd, but it is beginning to look so as it is happening too often.
6. Is Oz having record grain highs / lows in the expected range or are there too many extremes? How many is "too many" extremes for an individual to know. When they become statistically significant - this is where is is anomalous. Once in a while you should have strange results, they should not keep happening.
7. Poor nations are making carbon, it is the cheapest way to do it, it may not be long term thinking. Getting electricity and internet to a village needs to be done quickly and for many governments this is their way of powering this quickly. All governments must answer to their electorates. Some electorates are thinking about their next meal, some are thinking about their children and grand children. The governments and electorates of these two will seek different solutions
8. I will take your word for Australia is still in motion across the World - the leading edge of the plate you are on would probably be new Zealand which is cutting it's way through the Earth's mantle and creating some quakes along the way as it ice breaks it way through. It will always be like this - but it is slow, very slow
I answered this because I wanted to try and show this another way:
We don't live long, most changes we see should be small try this:
In our short lives we are seeing extremes of change:
I have taken a lot of words to say, your arguments have merit my observations are:
Think long term, extremes happen occasionally, more often is not normal.The examples given are from history, we are possibly seeing it again.
Others may be crap about CO2 - don't lower your standards - demand they raise theirs.
Make your lifestyle secure from these extremes that appear to be happening, Spread risk, it might be reservoirs, better drainage,
Have fewer children.
I have a science background so cannot say that what we are seeing now is similar to the sunspot or volcano events descried,. I can say I am looking for triggers for the extremes I am living; the only measurable difference so far is CO2 - it could well be something else, but I would ask what is this unmeasurable thing that has not been spotted?
Rushes
* I know these are different cylinders, please run with it
1. Gondwana [500M years ago] was the start of the continents, Africa / America was joined - so was most of everything, but we live only three score years and ten..
2. Paris Climate change is causing people to at least think about CO2, if that is all it achieves it may give your children a chance. Yes the increasing middle class is a problem, but if they grew solar panels instead of burning coal, in fact even nuclear there is some hope for another generation after this.
3. I can't agree enough that there is not enough investigation into total carbon cost of energy production, but I bet a more favourable outcome from wind and solar than coal.
4. 100 years of climate is not enough to consider the climate change strange, but 2010, 2011, 2017, 2018 seem a little close for setting UK extremes, I expect 100 year extremes to be mostly more spread out than this.
5. You have had more rainfall, they less. This is odd, maybe not statistically odd, but it is beginning to look so as it is happening too often.
6. Is Oz having record grain highs / lows in the expected range or are there too many extremes? How many is "too many" extremes for an individual to know. When they become statistically significant - this is where is is anomalous. Once in a while you should have strange results, they should not keep happening.
7. Poor nations are making carbon, it is the cheapest way to do it, it may not be long term thinking. Getting electricity and internet to a village needs to be done quickly and for many governments this is their way of powering this quickly. All governments must answer to their electorates. Some electorates are thinking about their next meal, some are thinking about their children and grand children. The governments and electorates of these two will seek different solutions
8. I will take your word for Australia is still in motion across the World - the leading edge of the plate you are on would probably be new Zealand which is cutting it's way through the Earth's mantle and creating some quakes along the way as it ice breaks it way through. It will always be like this - but it is slow, very slow
I answered this because I wanted to try and show this another way:
We don't live long, most changes we see should be small try this:
- An engine undergoes compression and expansion at rest at about 600 reversals a minute, 10 a second*. The earth has traditionally gone into an ice age every 15,000 years. Assume that you live about 25 compression and expansions with a gradually failing seal on the piston you would hardly notice it - however this would be the oncoming ice age. We would normally see very little change - but over a life it might just be measurably different. As far as the engine is concerned the seal is a little less good every cycle.
In our short lives we are seeing extremes of change:
- It appears that instead of this general trend in a small almost unmeasurable change of "the failing seal" all of a sudden the engine is starting to run away like a diesel. They go quickly in our lifetime a few seconds or minutes, but scale this to the World and it will be the equivalent of a number of years. I think that we might be seeing this. Examples of things that cause changes in a life time would be:
- The maunder minimum - when sunspots went "wrong" a famine followed [1645-1715] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum
- Extreme famine from cold caused by dust from a volcano [1815] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer
I have taken a lot of words to say, your arguments have merit my observations are:
Think long term, extremes happen occasionally, more often is not normal.The examples given are from history, we are possibly seeing it again.
Others may be crap about CO2 - don't lower your standards - demand they raise theirs.
Make your lifestyle secure from these extremes that appear to be happening, Spread risk, it might be reservoirs, better drainage,
Have fewer children.
I have a science background so cannot say that what we are seeing now is similar to the sunspot or volcano events descried,. I can say I am looking for triggers for the extremes I am living; the only measurable difference so far is CO2 - it could well be something else, but I would ask what is this unmeasurable thing that has not been spotted?
Rushes
* I know these are different cylinders, please run with it
TelesnaAg
Member
- Location
- Portland, Victoria - Australia
@TelesnaAg You have bundled a lot of stuff in there.
1. Gondwana [500M years ago] was the start of the continents, Africa / America was joined - so was most of everything, but we live only three score years and ten..
2. Paris Climate change is causing people to at least think about CO2, if that is all it achieves it may give your children a chance. Yes the increasing middle class is a problem, but if they grew solar panels instead of burning coal, in fact even nuclear there is some hope for another generation after this.
3. I can't agree enough that there is not enough investigation into total carbon cost of energy production, but I bet a more favourable outcome from wind and solar than coal.
4. 100 years of climate is not enough to consider the climate change strange, but 2010, 2011, 2017, 2018 seem a little close for setting UK extremes, I expect 100 year extremes to be mostly more spread out than this.
5. You have had more rainfall, they less. This is odd, maybe not statistically odd, but it is beginning to look so as it is happening too often.
6. Is Oz having record grain highs / lows in the expected range or are there too many extremes? How many is "too many" extremes for an individual to know. When they become statistically significant - this is where is is anomalous. Once in a while you should have strange results, they should not keep happening.
7. Poor nations are making carbon, it is the cheapest way to do it, it may not be long term thinking. Getting electricity and internet to a village needs to be done quickly and for many governments this is their way of powering this quickly. All governments must answer to their electorates. Some electorates are thinking about their next meal, some are thinking about their children and grand children. The governments and electorates of these two will seek different solutions
8. I will take your word for Australia is still in motion across the World - the leading edge of the plate you are on would probably be new Zealand which is cutting it's way through the Earth's mantle and creating some quakes along the way as it ice breaks it way through. It will always be like this - but it is slow, very slow
I answered this because I wanted to try and show this another way:
We don't live long, most changes we see should be small try this:
- An engine undergoes compression and expansion at rest at about 600 reversals a minute, 10 a second*. The earth has traditionally gone into an ice age every 15,000 years. Assume that you live about 25 compression and expansions with a gradually failing seal on the piston you would hardly notice it - however this would be the oncoming ice age. We would normally see very little change - but over a life it might just be measurably different. As far as the engine is concerned the seal is a little less good every cycle.
In our short lives we are seeing extremes of change:
- It appears that instead of this general trend in a small almost unmeasurable change of "the failing seal" all of a sudden the engine is starting to run away like a diesel. They go quickly in our lifetime a few seconds or minutes, but scale this to the World and it will be the equivalent of a number of years. I think that we might be seeing this. Examples of things that cause changes in a life time would be:
- The maunder minimum - when sunspots went "wrong" a famine followed [1645-1715] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum
- Extreme famine from cold caused by dust from a volcano [1815] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer
I have taken a lot of words to say, your arguments have merit my observations are:
Think long term, extremes happen occasionally, more often is not normal.The examples given are from history, we are possibly seeing it again.
Others may be crap about CO2 - don't lower your standards - demand they raise theirs.
Make your lifestyle secure from these extremes that appear to be happening, Spread risk, it might be reservoirs, better drainage,
Have fewer children.
I have a science background so cannot say that what we are seeing now is similar to the sunspot or volcano events descried,. I can say I am looking for triggers for the extremes I am living; the only measurable difference so far is CO2 - it could well be something else, but I would ask what is this unmeasurable thing that has not been spotted?
Rushes
* I know these are different cylinders, please run with it
Thank you for your insight...but i disagree on many points.
The paris accord is a load of lies, people latch onto it as if it will be there saviour...BS...climate change will always occur, can you provide evidence from.lets say the last 10,000 years that there has not been accelerated change periods, you are assuming that the change occurred at the same rate every year...and now that change seems quick? So where is the evidence that states the previous rates of change where identical in value year in tear out?
If carbon levels need to be lowered it will need a paradyme shift in the way we live and consume...paris accord is just another reason to promote carbon tax..another nil affect measure.
Next time yr at the supermarket, gi and look at a colgate toothpaste packet...thinl about how much ink the pumped into that small box to sell toothpaste...then think of the expanding middle class world wide and expect that there sales will climb...until the govt and the consumer make massive changes to products...and global population expansion is discussed we are pi**ing in the wind. The use of plastics and chemicals to sell nearly every item needs to change, the rate in which we consume cars needs to change...everything is throw away...yet coal gets the blame? Coal is the last peiece of the puzzle..its merely satisfying the human consumption that the very governments try to drive that grandstand on the paris accord....any idiot can see this is as hypocritical as it comes...which suits the leftist as they cant put 2 and 2 together...#libtard.
Ant...
oil barron
Member
- Location
- Aberdeenshire
If global warming is a thing and it is caused by carbon, then the trade sanctions on China will have a much bigger effect than any piece of paper in Paris.
TelesnaAg
Member
- Location
- Portland, Victoria - Australia
Skip the intro and watch this vid, many will not like alex jones but hes has reported on this for a long time and has had some very good experts on talking about it.
So what part does climate change, carbon and weather modification i.e. cloud seeding etc each play?
With all 3 going on at once it makes it very hard to know who to believe? who can divide all 3 and do accurate research?
Who can provide a solution?
The paris accord is designed to pacify the masses thinking that they are taking care of the environment, its easy to swallow.
Birth control, no one will touch that...
Ant...
So what part does climate change, carbon and weather modification i.e. cloud seeding etc each play?
With all 3 going on at once it makes it very hard to know who to believe? who can divide all 3 and do accurate research?
Who can provide a solution?
The paris accord is designed to pacify the masses thinking that they are taking care of the environment, its easy to swallow.
Birth control, no one will touch that...
Ant...
Well, that’s a big conspiracy theory!
Whether or not someone has been trying to alter the weather or not is a topic by itself. I believe that we do not yet fully understand existing weather patterns and the cycles within those patterns either. The Climate Change doom mongers fail to acknowledge physical evidence of crop cultivation in Greenland on what is currently permafrost so I remain sceptical about global warming. We can’t keep burning hydrocarbons and oxidising soil carbon without having some effect on CO2 levels so any minor attempts like Kyoto or Paris have to be a starting point IMO.
Whether or not someone has been trying to alter the weather or not is a topic by itself. I believe that we do not yet fully understand existing weather patterns and the cycles within those patterns either. The Climate Change doom mongers fail to acknowledge physical evidence of crop cultivation in Greenland on what is currently permafrost so I remain sceptical about global warming. We can’t keep burning hydrocarbons and oxidising soil carbon without having some effect on CO2 levels so any minor attempts like Kyoto or Paris have to be a starting point IMO.
TelesnaAg
Member
- Location
- Portland, Victoria - Australia
Cloud seeding and altering weather is not a conspiracy, its being done. People who have worked in this field have talked about it...research.
Ant...
Ant...
RushesToo
Member
- Location
- Fingringhoe
Climate change will always occur, here is present to last 800,000 years for temp.co2 and dust from ice cores, this is from 1950 when the big concern was entering a new ice age :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleoclimatology#/media/File:"EDC_TempCO2Dust".svg
The page here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleoclimatology
What it doesn't show is if CO2 is cause or effect, if CO2 and temperature act together and becoming a runaway process until something stops it.
Problem is that the last time we saw CO2 at 400ppmv is never from the ice record. It may well have been higher 200-150M years ago.
So do you feel lucky? is it effect not cause....
I cannot disagree with your observations about the complexity and interconnectedness of the World - demonstrated well be a toothpaste tube - or almost anything else in daily use, but we may well be able to provide the power to support this complexity and let the World get on doing what it normally will with CO2 without our nudging / kicking it to an extreme.
I am not certain that CO2 is or isn't the cause, and I believe that no one knows categorically. It looks reckless to carry on changing things without understanding what might happen - not particularly for our generation but for future ones.
Also - like land no one is making more coal and oil, it's going to be a long wait so let's not waste it on power which is easily replaced with alternatives.
shakerator
Member
- Location
- LINCS
The subsoil is going to take some recharging now- more high pressure blocking forecast .....
It is drier at depth than 2011 now yes I know what happened in 2012 ! But somehow this feels more severe ....?
Rainfall hasn’t been that far below average, it’s just the consistent evapor transpiration has been akin to more dryland / plains type climate with more rain than us !
Crops look great with all the air in the soil and N from last year. Potential is there for extreme high or low yields .
It is drier at depth than 2011 now yes I know what happened in 2012 ! But somehow this feels more severe ....?
Rainfall hasn’t been that far below average, it’s just the consistent evapor transpiration has been akin to more dryland / plains type climate with more rain than us !
Crops look great with all the air in the soil and N from last year. Potential is there for extreme high or low yields .
- Location
- West Suffolk
ATM with how the forecast is looking,irrigation next year is going to more restricted than this. This weather patten is effecting Northern Europe too I assume?
A lot can happen between now and then I know.
A lot can happen between now and then I know.