Dry and cold market support - daily market commentary

CRM AgriCommodities

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Arable Farmer
Location
UK
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Dry and Cold Market Support

Freezing conditions in the US continue to dominate the headlines with a surge in global markets again today, further supported by ongoing dry conditions for Brazilian Safrina corn.

Wheat

The freezing conditions are continuing in the US, leading to concerns for winter wheat. In the EU rain will be needed soon, especially for spring crops.

The latest USDA crop progress report maintained their assessment of winter wheat condition at 46% good and 7% excellent last week. US spring planting reached 19% complete, ahead of the 12% long term average. Fast progress has been made in Idaho, South Dakota and Washington, however, dry conditions persist for North Dakota, with 78% of topsoil moisture either very short or short of moisture.

Corn

In the USDA Crop Progress Report, corn planting progress reached 8% complete last week, in line with average and 2% ahead of last year. This week's cold weather is likely to delay planting and presents a concern for germination.

In Brazil, the ongoing dryness concerns for Safrina corn crop are leading to smaller production estimates. Rabobank have trimmed their full-season estimate to 105MT, down from 107MT. Although with a 79.45MT estimate for Safrina corn, in our opinion, remains optimistic.

Soybeans

The soybean planting campaign in the US is just getting underway, with planting reaching 3% complete last week, however, like with corn, the cold weather is likely to cause some delays, but there remains plenty of time to catch up.
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