holywell farmer
Member
- Location
- holywell, north wales
tories 398
Labour 170
Lib dem 20
Snp 45
Plaid 6
UKIP 0
Green 2
Labour 170
Lib dem 20
Snp 45
Plaid 6
UKIP 0
Green 2
Election 2017 seat guesses
- Thread starter holywell farmer
- Start date
kfpben
Member
- Location
- Mid Hampshire
Think I'm going to put a tenner on the biggest majority since WWII.
I can't see how Labour are going to win anywhere but the multi-ethnic inner cities with Corbyn in charge.
I can't see how Labour are going to win anywhere but the multi-ethnic inner cities with Corbyn in charge.
Boohoo
Member
- Location
- Newtownabbey
Surely not, 5 constituencies with a majority of people who are stupid enough to vote for someone who refuses to represent them?
I am assuming that both the DUP and SF will pick up a seat from the UUP and SDLP respectively.
DUP will campaign on a pro union ticket along with the bogey man argument that we could not possibly want SF as the largest party. The second argument will maybe work after the last Assembly election result.
SF have already said they will campaign as if this is a re-run of the Brexit referendum and argue that only a vote for them will result in NI staying in the EU.
The middle ground will be squeezed.
Boohoo
Member
- Location
- Newtownabbey
You're probably right, I just can't understand why people vote for someone who refuses to take their seat. How can any politician deliver on their promises if they aren't in parliament to argue their case and vote on the issues that matter? Surely a vote for the SDLP has a better chance of achieving something than a vote for SF? Maybe I'm putting too much thought into it.
holywell farmer
Member
- Location
- holywell, north wales
Sorry
Its politics we are talking about. Rational thought goes out the window when that subject is discussed.
The politicians don't have too many brains either!!
TheRanger
Member
- Location
- SW Scotland
Prediction for Scotland
SNP - 51
Conservative - 3 (Probably Dumfriesshire, Dumfries and Galloway, Berwickshire)
Labour - 2 (Edinburgh South, possibly Glassgow East as the Nationalist vote looks like it will be split between the suspended incumbent and whoever gets the SNP nod)
Lib Dems - 3 (Edinburgh West, Northern Isles, Dunbartonshire East)
There will probably also be the largest swing towards the Tories Scotland-wide since god knows when. The are gaining more and more votes by the day from those disillusioned by the SNP's single issue politics and their continuing failure to improve the Scottish economy, education and health sector.
The main factors will be the following:
IndyRef2:
1st and foremost will be the issue of a second referendum. Sturgeon has pledged to make it her number one election issue. The SNP got an all time high vote share and seat share in GE2015, although they still got less than half of all votes cast. Since then their standing in the polls has dropped and continues to drop, albeit slowly. They lost their majority in the devolved administration last year. Opinion against holding a second referendum is in a majority and is rising. Labour/Lib Dems are the middle ground on this issue and will be squeezed on both sides.
Tactical voting:
Last time around (2015GE), polls have shown many Tories tactically voted for Labour. This tactical voting seemed to be an abject failure in the vast majority of cases and wasn't anywhere near strong enough to stem the flow of Labour voters to the SNP. Conservative voters seem much keener this time to just vote for the Conservatives. This will probably lead to medium sized swings from Labour to the Tories in many seats, and a Scotland-wide swing to the Conservatives.
Brexit:
The majority of Scots voted against Brexit, but all recent polls show that a majority of Scots are now in favour of getting on with it and getting out. This probably wont be as big of an election issues as in the rUK due to the overriding IndyRef2 issues. Worth also pointing out that many of those voting in favour of Brexit were actually SNP voters up here. Labour and Lib Dem voters were massively in favour of Remain, and with Corbyn in charge there should be quite a swing from Labour Remainers to the Lib Dems, which should put them over the line in some of the big three and four way marginals.
Toxic Tories?:
Net Satisfaction of Ruth Davidson and Theresa May to Scottish voters, were both recently polling above Nicola Sturgeon. Davidson's Net Satisfaction was polling at +31, with +16 for May, and +14 for Sturgeon. Sturgeons Net Satisfaction rating has been gradually dropping among Scottish voters these last 18 months, that could be telling in 7 weeks time.
SNP - 51
Conservative - 3 (Probably Dumfriesshire, Dumfries and Galloway, Berwickshire)
Labour - 2 (Edinburgh South, possibly Glassgow East as the Nationalist vote looks like it will be split between the suspended incumbent and whoever gets the SNP nod)
Lib Dems - 3 (Edinburgh West, Northern Isles, Dunbartonshire East)
There will probably also be the largest swing towards the Tories Scotland-wide since god knows when. The are gaining more and more votes by the day from those disillusioned by the SNP's single issue politics and their continuing failure to improve the Scottish economy, education and health sector.
The main factors will be the following:
IndyRef2:
1st and foremost will be the issue of a second referendum. Sturgeon has pledged to make it her number one election issue. The SNP got an all time high vote share and seat share in GE2015, although they still got less than half of all votes cast. Since then their standing in the polls has dropped and continues to drop, albeit slowly. They lost their majority in the devolved administration last year. Opinion against holding a second referendum is in a majority and is rising. Labour/Lib Dems are the middle ground on this issue and will be squeezed on both sides.
Tactical voting:
Last time around (2015GE), polls have shown many Tories tactically voted for Labour. This tactical voting seemed to be an abject failure in the vast majority of cases and wasn't anywhere near strong enough to stem the flow of Labour voters to the SNP. Conservative voters seem much keener this time to just vote for the Conservatives. This will probably lead to medium sized swings from Labour to the Tories in many seats, and a Scotland-wide swing to the Conservatives.
Brexit:
The majority of Scots voted against Brexit, but all recent polls show that a majority of Scots are now in favour of getting on with it and getting out. This probably wont be as big of an election issues as in the rUK due to the overriding IndyRef2 issues. Worth also pointing out that many of those voting in favour of Brexit were actually SNP voters up here. Labour and Lib Dem voters were massively in favour of Remain, and with Corbyn in charge there should be quite a swing from Labour Remainers to the Lib Dems, which should put them over the line in some of the big three and four way marginals.
Toxic Tories?:
Net Satisfaction of Ruth Davidson and Theresa May to Scottish voters, were both recently polling above Nicola Sturgeon. Davidson's Net Satisfaction was polling at +31, with +16 for May, and +14 for Sturgeon. Sturgeons Net Satisfaction rating has been gradually dropping among Scottish voters these last 18 months, that could be telling in 7 weeks time.
jockthethistle
Member
SNP. 42. seats. jtt
- Location
- Beragh, Co Tyrone, Northern Ireland
The irony of course is that the SF/IRA abstentionism reduces the number of MPs either labour or the Conservatives require for a majority in the Commons. So in effect the Shiners are helping Tories in government.
Seems to be moves towards an electoral pact between the unionist parties in NI to maximise unionist representation at Westminster, plus certain westminster seats are vulnerable if there is no agreed candidate.
Seems to be moves towards an electoral pact between the unionist parties in NI to maximise unionist representation at Westminster, plus certain westminster seats are vulnerable if there is no agreed candidate.
- Location
- Northern Ireland
- Location
- Beragh, Co Tyrone, Northern Ireland
NI seats could dependant on whatever pacts are arranged in coming days, Fermanagh and South Tyrone currently held by T Elliott UUP as part of a deal with DUP could be very vulnerable, probably one of the key SF target seats and reawakened nationalist electorate.
- Location
- Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland
Fully expect Sinn Fein to win back Fermanagh even with an election pact they mobilised their voters unionists haven't and are behind the ball
Fully expect Sinn Fein to win back Fermanagh even with an election pact they mobilised their voters unionists haven't and are behind the ball
- Location
- Beragh, Co Tyrone, Northern Ireland
True, there has been some effort by unionists to start electoral registration clinics etc, but very much behind the sinner machine.
Soun
Theres very little polling evidence to go on.If the FMs popularity has waned it will only be among unionists who had a bit of a sneaky admiration for her.I think the SNP will get a lot more seats than anyone else,unless the unionist parties agree to only stand one candidate between them in each seat.
holywell farmer
Member
- Location
- holywell, north wales
How wrong was i