ELM Scheme

N.Yorks.

Member
S
going to be a disaster i think.....food production is going to plummet as it'll have to compete with env. options just as lower standard imports turn up....you can't suck £3billion out of an industry without consequences
It'll be sustainable intensification........ integrating diversity into the farmed environment increases output, so part of that diversity will be provided through CS/ELM (tier 2??) if you do the research and figure it out.

There'll be serious questions asked about land use/profitability and identification of crap land that doesn't actually make any money - that all needs to go into some type of non ag scheme to make a financial return.

It won't be a case of doing whats always been done for years, and being told to 'buy this' and 'buy that' because 'it'll make you more money'....... I know these are general statements that don't apply to all.
Stand back, get your head around it all and look carefully at what to do in the future. Business as usual may not be the best policy...... all depends on the specific resources available on individual farms. IMHO..
 

N.Yorks.

Member
That would be fine if all of the EU were following the same path as the delusional UK government, all that will happen is floods of imports will in time undercut UK farms & we will all have to get bigger & more intensive to compete, exactly the opposite to what environmentalists say they want!
All depends doesn't it on the financial incentives provided by ELM? Too low and nobody bothers....... too high and nobody grows food (unlikely I think!)....... so we wait and see.
 

BrianV

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Dartmoor
S

It'll be sustainable intensification........ integrating diversity into the farmed environment increases output, so part of that diversity will be provided through CS/ELM (tier 2??) if you do the research and figure it out.

There'll be serious questions asked about land use/profitability and identification of crap land that doesn't actually make any money - that all needs to go into some type of non ag scheme to make a financial return.

It won't be a case of doing whats always been done for years, and being told to 'buy this' and 'buy that' because 'it'll make you more money'....... I know these are general statements that don't apply to all.
Stand back, get your head around it all and look carefully at what to do in the future. Business as usual may not be the best policy...... all depends on the specific resources available on individual farms. IMHO..
And still the Drax power station continues to burn 800,000 dried chipped trees every single day whilst being paid hundreds of millions in subsidy to do so, funny old world isn't it
 

Frank-the-Wool

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
East Sussex
going to be a disaster i think.....food production is going to plummet as it'll have to compete with env. options just as lower standard imports turn up....you can't suck £3billion out of an industry without consequences

It may of course have the opposite effect.
If you look at the "unsubsidised" countries of the world which are also the least "regulated" then the effect will be to increase production in the short term.
My thinking is that there will be significant changes in the livestock sector and less in the arable areas.
Arable farming will continue to move into very large units with full economies of scale. The best land will be put into maximum production using every tool in the box, including robots. The less productive will be assessed for planting trees or using for growing crops for wildlife. ELMS will not be a high priority for the large arable units.

Livestock will go to two extremes, the highly intensive using very little land and so not bothered by ELMS, Dairying, Pig production and feedlot beef. The extensive which will use the land as a resource for water storage and landscape enhancement which will keep livestock on as scenic benefit. There will be better management of the access routes and those farmers who provide this service for the people to go into the countryside will be well paid to maintain the footpaths and offer additional areas for horse riding and dog exercise. This will be in areas which are already grassland, such as hills and downland and some designated sites.
 

holwellcourtfarm

Member
Livestock Farmer
It may of course have the opposite effect.
If you look at the "unsubsidised" countries of the world which are also the least "regulated" then the effect will be to increase production in the short term.
My thinking is that there will be significant changes in the livestock sector and less in the arable areas.
Arable farming will continue to move into very large units with full economies of scale. The best land will be put into maximum production using every tool in the box, including robots. The less productive will be assessed for planting trees or using for growing crops for wildlife. ELMS will not be a high priority for the large arable units.

Livestock will go to two extremes, the highly intensive using very little land and so not bothered by ELMS, Dairying, Pig production and feedlot beef. The extensive which will use the land as a resource for water storage and landscape enhancement which will keep livestock on as scenic benefit. There will be better management of the access routes and those farmers who provide this service for the people to go into the countryside will be well paid to maintain the footpaths and offer additional areas for horse riding and dog exercise. This will be in areas which are already grassland, such as hills and downland and some designated sites.
You are probably not far off the way the "leaders" see it. Where does that leave lowland peat (lincolnshire etc, some of the most productive soils in the country but hemorrhaging carbon under cultivation) and the river flood meadows that were ripped out in the '47 Ag Act push for productivity to grow cereals?
 

N.Yorks.

Member
It may of course have the opposite effect.
If you look at the "unsubsidised" countries of the world which are also the least "regulated" then the effect will be to increase production in the short term.
My thinking is that there will be significant changes in the livestock sector and less in the arable areas.
Arable farming will continue to move into very large units with full economies of scale. The best land will be put into maximum production using every tool in the box, including robots. The less productive will be assessed for planting trees or using for growing crops for wildlife. ELMS will not be a high priority for the large arable units.

Livestock will go to two extremes, the highly intensive using very little land and so not bothered by ELMS, Dairying, Pig production and feedlot beef. The extensive which will use the land as a resource for water storage and landscape enhancement which will keep livestock on as scenic benefit. There will be better management of the access routes and those farmers who provide this service for the people to go into the countryside will be well paid to maintain the footpaths and offer additional areas for horse riding and dog exercise. This will be in areas which are already grassland, such as hills and downland and some designated sites.

I think you are overlooking the benefits from managing/integrating the farmed environment with natural systems that provide better soil health, natural pest/pathogen reduction, weed control through more considered rotations, IPM. Of course there will be some crop management tech that will aid in finer tuning systems - GPS systems for example.

Maximum production will not lead to the best gross margin as we already know. You cannot push the soil beyond it's natural capacity to sustain output - moving to vertical hydroponics is another thing completely.

The benefits from diversity are massive - monocultures high risk! Irish potato famine took down a country - they relied on the potato for nutrition but the late blight fungal disease wiped out huge chunks of crop over 5 years. No diversity in potato varieties and no diversity in cropping therefore massive failure.
 

holwellcourtfarm

Member
Livestock Farmer
The benefits from diversity are massive - monocultures high risk! Irish potato famine took down a country - they relied on the potato for nutrition but the late blight fungal disease wiped out huge chunks of crop over 5 years. No diversity in potato varieties and no diversity in cropping therefore massive failure.
We all know that but just keep making the same mistake. 5 species account for something like 90% of crop food production (Wheat, maize, soya, potatoes, rice). The world's coffee is grown using 2 species from the hundreds naturally occurring. Resilience, what resilience? :facepalm:
 

N.Yorks.

Member
You are probably not far off the way the "leaders" see it. Where does that leave lowland peat (lincolnshire etc, some of the most productive soils in the country but hemorrhaging carbon under cultivation) and the river flood meadows that were ripped out in the '47 Ag Act push for productivity to grow cereals?

It's really interesting thinking about the what drivers for change were back in the late '40's and what that stimulated out on the ground.

I presume (as I'm no historian) that the post war period was a drive for greater self sufficiency as Hitlers U-boat campaign demonstrated how fragile we were as an island`? Then the population increased so, with a better standard of living and further industrial innovation and cheap food, drove wealth? Fast forward 60 years we have a huge population all hooked on cheap food and some desire to purchase the latest 'whatever' that drives the economy?

Looks like we really got lost a bit..... but things change as we realise past miscalculations and unintended consequences?
 

holwellcourtfarm

Member
Livestock Farmer
It's really interesting thinking about the what drivers for change were back in the late '40's and what that stimulated out on the ground.

I presume (as I'm no historian) that the post war period was a drive for greater self sufficiency as Hitlers U-boat campaign demonstrated how fragile we were as an island`? Then the population increased so, with a better standard of living and further industrial innovation and cheap food, drove wealth? Fast forward 60 years we have a huge population all hooked on cheap food and some desire to purchase the latest 'whatever' that drives the economy?

Looks like we really got lost a bit..... but things change as we realise past miscalculations and unintended consequences?
If you've got time to read 400 or so pages then Prof. Tim Langs' new book is a reasonable analysis of what's gone wrong in our food system, why and what needs doing about it. I'm disappointed that he gives significant weight to the "EAT-LANCET report" and the "EATWELL Plate food recommendations", both of which have been proven to be based on flawed science, but most farmers would still gain insight into our current food system from reading it.

Sadly I can't see any government having the balls to enact his recommendations though in the face of all the powerful vested political interests.
 

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GeorgeK

Member
Location
Leicestershire
I worry the eco brigade will shout loudest and assume control of ELMS, getting outraged on Tw*tter and forcing u-turns on anything that doesn't suit them. Nothing will ever be good enough and when a few trees and a beaver fail to stop flooding it will of course be the farmer's fault not the impractical scheme. I think ELMS could end up in a state of constant flux, criticism and moving goal posts with farmers who committed left high and dry having planted 'the wrong type of trees' or whatever else hasn't worked like the experts said it would
 

N.Yorks.

Member
I worry the eco brigade will shout loudest and assume control of ELMS, getting outraged on Tw*tter and forcing u-turns on anything that doesn't suit them. Nothing will ever be good enough and when a few trees and a beaver fail to stop flooding it will of course be the farmer's fault not the impractical scheme. I think ELMS could end up in a state of constant flux, criticism and moving goal posts with farmers who committed left high and dry having planted 'the wrong type of trees' or whatever else hasn't worked like the experts said it would


It won't be the farmers fault, nor the trees or the odd beaver it'll be the amount of rain falling from the sky. But if we've done jack sh!t to try and mitigate the effects then who are the idiots? Some stuff will work some won't.... that's life.... live and learn.


You seem to have surrendered before you've even had a go!! Come on the sun is shining, time to look forward..........
 

DrWazzock

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
There are already many publicly funded organisations and projects presently being done on a limited scale just waiting to go full throttle when ELMS kicks in. River catchment management is just one area where I can see possibilities of farmers being “encouraged” to perhaps sacrifice crop production to creation of wetlands and seasonal flood plain as it was in pre drainage days. Whether it will actually please anybody is yet to be seen. When the public footpath becomes impassable due to flooding or the bridge floating away as happened here then maybe the public won’t be so keen. And I can’t really see how we can hold much more water here without having to stop farming it entirely. But I’m not actually against that idea in principle if you make it worth my while or give me a serious offer.
Bit of an aside but we find quite bad fluke problems arise with wet grazing and sheep tread banks badly without a big fenced off margin.
All interesting stuff though....till the money runs out.
 

BrianV

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Dartmoor
It won't be the farmers fault, nor the trees or the odd beaver it'll be the amount of rain falling from the sky. But if we've done jack sh!t to try and mitigate the effects then who are the idiots? Some stuff will work some won't.... that's life.... live and learn.


You seem to have surrendered before you've even had a go!! Come on the sun is shining, time to look forward..........
So the answer is plant a few token trees, grow far less of our own food & import more from the rest of the world whilst half the world is starving. If as the environmentalists claim the Earth's temperatures are going to rise then a whole lot of the Earth will not be able to feed it's self in which case as our country is one of the lucky few not quite so badly affected then surely we should be producing more to make up the earth's shortfall or is it a just case of sod the rest & each country to it's own
 

DrWazzock

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
I think realistically a lot of grade 3 with knackered underdrains is already struggling with wetter winters. With no real encouragement to produce food on it, no drainage grants etc, I can see swathes of it reverting to scrub without BPS, with or without help from ELMS. I’m expecting a big reduction in income here, even if the whole place is in ELMS. As said, it’s not a subsidy, it’s a crop, and not a very brilliant one. The subsidy is going.
 

DrWazzock

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
Fact is they have a much lower cost base abroad. Bigger fields, cheaper labour, willing workforce, less regulation, agriculturally benign governments a climates more suited to cereal growing than here in “Blighty”.
 

Hindsight

Member
Location
Lincolnshire
I think realistically a lot of grade 3 with knackered underdrains is already struggling with wetter winters. With no real encouragement to produce food on it, no drainage grants etc, I can see swathes of it reverting to scrub without BPS, with or without help from ELMS. I’m expecting a big reduction in income here, even if the whole place is in ELMS. As said, it’s not a subsidy, it’s a crop, and not a very brilliant one. The subsidy is going.

Todays announcement of E10 fuel is relevant. BPS is going. But Government is expecting that the UK Agriculture will become price sensitive and competitive. So E10 fuel may and is expected by government to increase price of wheat and thus allow an increase income to offset reduced BPS. That is the theory. Wheat at £160 and their will be folk happy to min till Grade 3 land with dodgy wet areas. At £110 not as much. AT £200 tonne folk will be falling over themselves to farm that wet old Grade 3 farm with knackered drainage.

As I said a few weeks ago on one of these thread it Commodity prices - stupid - to coin that phrase from I think George Bush.

You will continue to rail against ELMS DrW and am sure you will be on here in a few years chuntering about that wet patch in the Winter wheat and why do you carry on.

With the very best of wishes, H
 

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