Exodus

[Walterp]

Two of my neighbours have now called time on their dairy herds, deciding to sell up whilst their herds still have some value.

Both quality herds of 150 or so cows, bred up over half a lifetime, and both very well-run, well-established family units that could easily stay the course in the dairy industry if they thought it was worthwhile.

Does this mean that the eventual upturn in prices will now happen quicker than expected, because people are making prompt decisions to exit? Or does it mean that these farmers might be correct in thinking it'll take 5 years of hard, fruitless, slog before we see a recovery?

 

[WillM]

Sadly the latter, probably. The cows will be bought by larger farms riddled with debt as their consultant told them "expand further to be more efficient!" Or go to a farmer with an aligned contract... Either, or.

 

[Princess Pooper]

Thought you were always going on about how all the greedy dairy farmers round you were massive cow units who had expanded greatly?

 

[Walterp]

Thought you were always going on about how all the greedy dairy farmers round you were massive cow units who had expanded greatly?

Big dairy area in Pembrokeshire - next door milks 1500 cows, one across the valley milks 1200 cows, my neighbour on the off farm milks 400 cows, but the rest of my neighbours are more typical of the average family unit, being about 150 to 200 cows.

Another neighbour, until recently, milked 40 cows in an abreast parlour. Another still uses a Hosier milking bail (thru' which he puts an amazing 190 cows).

So we get to see a very wide variety down here.

Even so, it's hard to discern future trends.

 

[DaveGrohl]

I'm not sure you could describe them as "exiting early" really. The current crisis has been coming for at least a year and a half to anyone that actually takes note of the outside world and is reasonably savvy.

This slump really isn't going to disappear any time soon, there is nothing on the horizon to come to the rescue. Yest's NZ auction was down 7.4% on the back of what many thought were already rock bottom prices. Just look at the price of oil for clues as to what's happening to demand for all commodities worldwide despite what govts try to tell you.

There's a lot of sadness and horrible decisions ahead for many dairy farmers in this country in the coming months and years. Two decent sized dairy farmers have thrown the towel in around here in the last couple of weeks. It will indeed be the haves on aligned contracts that stay the course. Anyone else who manages to stay the course on a poor contract deserves total admiration. Sadly the banks will prob be the ones demanding sales in a lot of cases. Awful decision to make but this isn't going away.

 

[coomoo]

I'm not sure you could describe them as "exiting early" really. The current crisis has been coming for at least a year and a half to anyone that actually takes note of the outside world and is reasonably savvy.

This slump really isn't going to disappear any time soon, there is nothing on the horizon to come to the rescue. Yest's NZ auction was down 7.4% on the back of what many thought were already rock bottom prices. Just look at the price of oil for clues as to what's happening to demand for all commodities worldwide despite what govts try to tell you.

There's a lot of sadness and horrible decisions ahead for many dairy farmers in this country in the coming months and years. Two decent sized dairy farmers have thrown the towel in around here in the last couple of weeks. It will indeed be the haves on aligned contracts that stay the course. Anyone else who manages to stay the course on a poor contract deserves total admiration. Sadly the banks will prob be the ones demanding sales in a lot of cases. Awful decision to make but this isn't going away.

Went to H and H's monthly dairy sale for a nose today and I'd say trade was really back have to agree @DaveGrohl I'd worry too many herds going to come together flooding market.

 

[Beef farmer]

Went to H and H's monthly dairy sale for a nose today and I'd say trade was really back have to agree @DaveGrohl I'd worry too many herds going to come together flooding market.

Then we can all expand on the cheap.

 

[coomoo]

Then we can all expand on the cheap.

Tin hat on

 

[tanker]

I'm surprised that more haven't said sod it.I don't mean farmers being forced out,I mean the producers who are old enough to retire with nobody keen to follow and could come out still fairly ahead if they pulled the plug...Maybe there aren't as many as I think there are..

 

[Hilly]

I dont think think it would take that much for for an exodus in all sectors, and as the years roll on it gets closer as farmers get older its easier to say fek it im out !

 

[Beef farmer]

Tin hat on

No hiding away from it, for a flying herd, a cheap replacement helps a lot. Last lot only cost £35 more than the culls. Pd+ . Won't be able to that forever.

 

[gone up the hill]

Went to H and H's monthly dairy sale for a nose today and I'd say trade was really back have to agree @DaveGrohl I'd worry too many herds going to come together flooding market.

Very few will be forced sales!

Also it looks the Government are going to lose the Euro vote by a long mile ( unless Cameron can pull a rabbit out of the bag next month ) and when its a vote to pull out the £ will dive like a stone ( if it doesn't before election day ) which will help farm gate prices a lot and quick!

 

[Dr. Alkathene]

No hiding away from it, for a flying herd, a cheap replacement helps a lot. Last lot only cost £35 more than the culls. Pd+ . Won't be able to that forever.

I was talking to a farmer a couple of weeks ago that had been buying HF bulling heifers, 14 / 15 month old nowt special for £450 - £475 a piece.

 

[endeavour]

@BF
Initials say it all unless you've got your tongue in cheek.

 

[Beef farmer]

I was talking to a farmer a couple of weeks ago that had been buying HF bulling heifers, 14 / 15 month old nowt special for £450 - £475 a piece.

Fair ease on cash flow, but..... They will be £900 when all the beef calves come through the system and there's very few heifers available.

 

[Beef farmer]

@BF
Initials say it all unless you've got your tongue in cheek.

If your talking to me, please explain?

 

[coomoo]

Forced or not the decision is now. We're all planning for the year ahead fert to be bought slurry spread etc @Beef farmer have had some 8 wk blues away at 410 n watched out wintered in calf tiergans at about 5/6/700

 

[Beef farmer]

Forced or not the decision is now. We're all planning for the year ahead fert to be bought slurry spread etc @Beef farmer have had some 8 wk blues away at 410 n watched out wintered in calf tiergans at about 5/6/700

Would love to sell some, but tb is keeping me closed. My concern is, it's either less than 12weeks or over 12 months to realise the best money.so gonna have to wait for a few months. Refuse to give them away, would sooner finish them myself.

 

[endeavour]

Was referring to your post 7 but you went to go on about replacement cost in latter posts are you genuinely considering expansion into a period of declining milk prices and if slaughter cow nos rise price will get depressed I admire your fortitude but still question your wisdom, but then its a free world.

 

[Beef farmer]

Was referring to your post 7 but you went to go on about replacement cost in latter posts are you genuinely considering expansion into a period of declining milk prices and if slaughter cow nos rise price will get depressed I admire your fortitude but still question your wisdom, but then its a free world.

Will actually be shrinking the milking cows by 120 this year.only because I've bought to many replacements!! And can't house them all next winter.