Extinction Rebellion and Farming

[farmerm]

1 stuck ship, in the suez canal, has caused a rise in oil price. The world relies on a system of 'just' in time deliveries, try going to your tractor dealer, and ask for a spare part, it's, it will be here tomorrow, or it's in germany, 48 hours delivery.
No one carries large stocks of anything any longer, the bean counters have worked it out, stock doesn't earn money, sat on shelves in dealers yards, s/mkts, computer reads sales, those sales are then sent to central depots, which then compute which shop needs what, robot sorted to lorry, then to store. It takes very little to upset that chain, snow, floods etc, multiply on a global scale, then breakdown, piracy in indian ocean, illness, terrorism, strikes, embargoes etc, all interfere with delivery times, delays cost money. Everything has been worked out to the n'th degree, all the slack has gone. It would take very little to disrupt those supply lines, then it definitely supply and demand prices. And that is the big problem for farmer, we are a long term industry, trying to cope in a short time world, the two don't mix well.

With our food commodity prices becoming increasingly driven by global supply and demand events we can expect ever increasing volatility in our domestic values. Short term volatility may be some stock traders dream but its not good for investment confidence in industries that operate over long terms like agriculture.

 

[Henarar]

Any dip in UK production will have little to no bearing on global supplies and like you say, price is linked to supply...

In that case a dip in UK production will have a bearing on global supplies given level production everywhere else a dip here would mean lower supplies and if price is linked to supply then it will change given the same demand

 

[farmerm]

In that case a dip in UK production will have a bearing on global supplies given level production everywhere else a dip here would mean lower supplies and if price is linked to supply then it will change given the same demand

Lets take wheat, the UK contributes less than 2% of global wheat production, even if 90% of farmers in the UK quit growing wheat and planted trees as BPS reductions take effect, the impact on global wheat supply and price uplift for the 10% of producers that remain would be next to nothing.

 

[wanton dwarf]

Lets take wheat, the UK contributes less than 2% of global wheat production, even if 90% of farmers in the UK quit growing wheat and planted trees as BPS reductions take effect, the impact on global wheat supply and price uplift for the 10% of producers that remain would be next to nothing.

What you say doesn't match this year does it ? And that's a 30% reduction. And look at the price of straw.

 

[Swarfmonkey]

Putting price uplifts to one side for a minute, what concerns me is food security. A quick google search shows that 15% of milling wheat is already imported (according to ukflourmillers.org). Is it sensible to increase that?

 

[farmerm]

What you say doesn't match this year does it ? And that's a 30% reduction. And look at the price of straw.

I think this year matches exactly what I am saying, we are now on a roller coaster where the highs will be very high and the lows very low... Straw is bulky to transport, values are much more localised, its not really in the same category as grain or meat. Who folds first without BPS and with the increased import pressures, the straw producer or the straw consumer?

 

[som farmer]

In that case a dip in UK production will have a bearing on global supplies given level production everywhere else a dip here would mean lower supplies and if price is linked to supply then it will change given the same demand

certainly stock prices in the UK, are at an all time high, i would really like to know why, is it a bubble getting ready to pop, a genuine shortage, or a brexit thing. If it is a result of brexit, wish we'd left years ago ! Quite like the sound of a genuine shortage too. But worried it's a bubble, when/if it pops, with the price of stores, to the value of prime, there doesn't look a lot left, sheep, that's phenomenal, and have been told exports to EU are well down, sucks got to £169 locally, this week.
We live in very different times, at the present, no-one saw covid coming, on top of brexit as well, things wont ever return to the 'normal', and nobody knows where/when/how things are going to turn out. However, it may be the reason buyers are sourcing home product, guaranteed supply. There may be problems importing beef from Ireland, i see the UK officials, have slowed down the granting of licences, to french and other EU fishing fleets, to something half speed of a slow snail, 39 granted, since jan, 850 waiting, and the french are demanding the EU sort it out, perhaps there may be a reason for that......... and there may be more 'problems'.

 

[wanton dwarf]

I think this year matches exactly what I am saying, ...

Lets take wheat, the UK contributes less than 2% of global wheat production, even if 90% of farmers in the UK quit growing wheat and planted trees as BPS reductions take effect, the impact on global wheat supply and price uplift for the 10% of producers that remain would be next to nothing.

That's what you said. And as I have stated .. 30% reduction has yielded higher Wheat prices and high straw prices. If what you said was true there would be no difference .. there is, we can all see it and feel it.

 

[wanton dwarf]

certainly stock prices in the UK, are at an all time high, i would really like to know why, is it a bubble getting ready to pop

Shares prices are not based on actual value but perceived value.

Most companies are losing money. But because the UK has rolled out vaccines the perceived value is the potential profit in the near future - especially when considering the failure of the EU. Money is chasing "Investment".

The question is how large will unemployment be and for how long and how does this compare with other countries.

I think there will be a drop at some point but not whilst optimism exists.

 

[GeorgeK]

Lets take wheat, the UK contributes less than 2% of global wheat production, even if 90% of farmers in the UK quit growing wheat and planted trees as BPS reductions take effect, the impact on global wheat supply and price uplift for the 10% of producers that remain would be next to nothing.

Supply is also elastic, if wheat prices go up more wheat is planted. Marginal land becomes viable and is brought into production. Climate change is disrupting food production in some areas like Australia, but at the same time permafrost is thawing and fertile peat land is being created. I have traveled across eastern Europe and Russia and have seen thousands upon thousands of acres of unused flat, fertile soil as far as the eye can see that is steadily being drained and cultivated. Personally I believe global food supply will keep pace with growing demand in the short and medium term

 

[som farmer]

Shares prices are not based on actual value but perceived value.

Most companies are losing money. But because the UK has rolled out vaccines the perceived value is the potential profit in the near future - especially when considering the failure of the EU. Money is chasing "Investment".

The question is how large will unemployment be and for how long and how does this compare with other countries.

I think there will be a drop at some point but not whilst optimism exists.

the stock i was referring to, definitely have a real value, rather than a perceived one, they have 4 legs.

 

[BrianV]

Food will go to the highest bidder, in global terms we are a relatively wealthy country, we won’t have a problem outbidding many others if there is a shortage.
However full bellies here could mean hunger elsewhere but out of sight out of mind, at least we as a country will have done our bit saving the planet, planting trees.

With Drax power station burning 800,000 trees a day the exact opposite could be argued!