Farmer Roy's Random Thoughts - I never said it was easy.

Ignoring facts is not to be confused with inconclusive information, unfortunately these days everyone think you make complete assumptions of single data points, this is music to the ears of media companies.

Weather is one field type that has highly variable macro and micro data factors, and even as many try as they might there are still manual normalisations used not so much for current data but especially comparing 2019 back to the early 1900's.

Its is highly challenging in my somewhat fully controlled work site and that still requires months of data analysis and additional capture technology. I am currently working on the first steps of AI and machine learning data analysis. If you can get accurate information you can make accurate decisions, no guarantee the solution will work but higher success rate.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/datasets/datasets.shtml

In the bom article it says early 20th century the shelters used lowered max temps, but then they adjusted Darwin and many others down not up to match modern data capture.

Rainfall maps are another one where a grain of salt could be applied, they should look like data points on map especially for nthn oz, we don't have rainfall gauge every sq km. We can use satellite to normalise but didn't have satellite in 1900. As nthn oz is mainly storm based results between locations can be highly variable, and also we do not know if there were more or less collection points in 1900s and collection routines are sketchy.

So to me as a data analyst being a major part of my job, i know i need more information for some results to be conclusive, then if i talked to climatologists would no doubt need a bunch more.

Good news is it shouldn't get to variable from here on if data collection is accurate, which in my location its not. But 1 is not then end of the world in the scheme of things.

The data time period we can observe being the only period we have recorded is also a massive issue. When u look at 100 years on planet earth, thats like looking at the performance parameters on an engine for 1 second on an engine that will do 10,000 hrs, none of us would do that but with weather we do it for some reason.

Traditional safe zone is one that i find perplexing and i know that will upset some but if you have had 70 good years or above x rain for 70 years out of the last 100, all that means is exactly that, in those 100 years the rain was above x, unless you have another 10x 100 years you cannot draw the conclusion that the 70 years with above x is representative of the true characteristic for weather in that area. Tree rings are highly variable as well as trees that get disease or inspects swarm and stress trees they exhibit the same closer rings that rainfall shortages.

There is little doubt that we are seeing warming from 6.5 billion consumer hungry mamals on the planet, but its also that data effect that has to overlay over climate with many other factors like solar flares etc...then it still does draw the conclusion that the drought is from those affects and aren't cylycle, it may be 100% caused by humans, thats probable, but so are all the other climate influences and normal cycles.

All this pondering of information should also not detract from our efforts to reduce carbon, reduce rubbish and correct the consumer trends which the majority are trending the wrong way. Reducing rubbish in our oceans should be treated as a global emergency, its a disgusting mark against our species.

Ant....
 

cows sh#t me to tears

Member
Livestock Farmer
you have wet windrows ?

A whole 7mm :rolleyes:? I've been conditioned over the last 3 years to panic at .5mm
I cant remember what I used to do when we would get an inch on the hay :oops::scratchhead:
It was fairly damp through the row. And these flashy ryegrasses wont stop growing in spring....trying to get hay dry on top of fresh grass is pretty hard as the hay keeps pulling moisture out of the grass.
 
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A whole 7mm :rolleyes:? I've been conditioned over the last 3 years to panic at .5mm
I cant remember what I used to do when we would get an inch on the hay :oops::scratchhead:
It was fairly damp through the row. And these flashy ryegrasses wont stop growing in spring....trying to get hay dry on top of fresh grass is pretty hard as the hay keeps pulling moisture out of the grass.
What a problem to have!! Wait to u try harvesting grass seed in sth west, grass a foot tall on regrowth trying to pick up windrow.

Ant...
 
Shes having a go at Rolleston, bit of rain, lots of lightning, some parts of the mine coping a burst i see on the cameras.

Be raining at carnarvon gorge for sure, its more reliable than portland!

Ant...
 

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cows sh#t me to tears

Member
Livestock Farmer

This may or may not work.....but today they said the current Indian ocean dipole is the strongest it has been since 1997 and 94. This is more of a key driver of our weather than El nino is.
 

holwellcourtfarm

Member
Livestock Farmer
Another interesting Nuffield report: https://nuffieldinternational.org/live/Report/CA/2016/tony-balkwill

Who would have guessed where the best farmers were? :unsure:;)

The take-home, from this region and the several growers I spent time with, was very humbling. These growers were truly some of the best farmers I have ever met. They were farming tough, erosion-prone soils, and variable rating all of the applications they could. They were aware of all costs per acre, and embraced technology. They also expressed a clear limit of the potential of that investment. A quote from one that is a great summary of this area, was as such “Technology cannot out-farm mother nature”. That was the completion of a few weeks in a very unique farming region of southern Australia. It was quite the contrast to the thought process of Ontario and the UK regions, I had visited previously. While Ontario and the UK showed amazing farming practices and results, they, by no means, had the volatility of this region in Australia. The weather volatility forced them to be more aware of the economics of farming.
 
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CornishTone

Member
BASIS
Location
Cornwall
This brightened my day up,these lot need to get their point across not pi55 working people off.


Bloody hilarious! They’re trying to get us to give up cars and use public transport, and to reinforce the message they stop everyone using public transport. Smart, very smart!

But did you notice the pack mentality of the crowd once he was down? It was like something out of a David Attenborough documentary.
 
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Yale

Member
Livestock Farmer
Bloody hilarious! They’re trying to get us to give up cars and use Pulitzer transport, and to reinforce the message they stop everyone using public transport. Smart, very smart!

But did you notice the pack mentality of the crowd once he was down? It was like something out of a David Attenborough documentary.
Yes,I noticed that and I will admit to shouting at the tv ‘go on,get stuck in!’. :woot:
 

Yale

Member
Livestock Farmer
Bloody hilarious! They’re trying to get us to give up cars and use Pulitzer transport, and to reinforce the message they stop everyone using public transport. Smart, very smart!

But did you notice the pack mentality of the crowd once he was down? It was like something out of a David Attenborough documentary.
If you’ve ever seen a pack of hounds catch up with a fox. :nailbiting:
 

SFI - What % were you taking out of production?

  • 0 %

    Votes: 80 42.3%
  • Up to 25%

    Votes: 66 34.9%
  • 25-50%

    Votes: 30 15.9%
  • 50-75%

    Votes: 3 1.6%
  • 75-100%

    Votes: 3 1.6%
  • 100% I’ve had enough of farming!

    Votes: 7 3.7%

Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

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As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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