Agreed, but we are not at this stage yet. As things stand, we are staring at a shortage of nitrogen products in the UK.It has to reach a stage where it becomes totally uneconomic and I think for a grassland farmer it has just about reached that stage,unless there is a significant rise in the price of our end product.
You won't need 210kgN/Ha for an 8t/ha crop? Would of thought 180kgN would get u there? £25 acre less spendWell I’ve done some fag packet calculations today
We still have some ground left to drill. So my calculation was 2nd Winter Wheat , Spring Barley or fallow
WW @ 3.25 t/ac @ £190/t ( already sold some at that) less seed ( already in shed) and N @ 210kgN/ha @£700/tonne and spray at 50% more cost than last year
I know that’s an unhealthy mix of /ha and /ac but it’s how I work it all out longhand ! With a mix of kg/ha and cwt /ac to boot lol
leaves around £260/acre to pay for overheads, rent& finance ,machinery, cultivation’s, sundries etc.
similar calc with Spring Barley @ 2.25t/ac @ £170/ton ( again already sold some at that) gives a figure of £208/acre
well still keep trying to put Winter wheat in
But spring barley vs fallow vs cover will be a calculation for March.
good luck everyone
it’s going to be a difficult and draining year. Both financially and emotionally
Edit:- £260/acre is a crap Gross Margin
But the alternatives to me appears to be worse. Other than a cover fallow and a decent first wheat next year the overhead costs are still there. So £260/ac is better than nowt.
Massive variables in that calc =
Yield/seed rate/fertilizer price and availability/spray price and availability/ grain sale price etc
Those who have done nothing and think the price is going to drop will be extremely lucky to even get product onto farmI think there's a likely point where folk who have held off buying, ring up and are told that there simply isn't product. If there are no boats of urea coming in, no CF compounds being made, then there just won't be any product to deliver.