Fertiliser Price Tracker

Steevo

Member
Location
Gloucestershire
Only a short period you could refuse to buy food before it wouldnt do you any good!!
Use less fert, produce less product that will then increase in price and return the same profit as before. Madness rushing to buy fert at current prices imo

I agree with the above. But your previous post that if nobody bought it the price will drop ignores the global aspect. If they can make a profit from it people will buy it, and that’s only prudent. We can only control the things within our own control.
 

e3120

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Northumberland
Only thinking quickly

youre talking about £1/kg N

so 150 kg/ha for 8t wb

180 for 10t ww

75 for 25t grass yield

thats reasonable in a mixed enterprise, I might argue lean for high protein grass but there abouts

and to be fair I’d be with you in saying at £350 to do anything dramatic will cost more than just getting bummed for the fert, the big question is, what’s the price and availability? This thread would be 20 pages shorter if fdry was £350 and readily available, when you look at those numbers at 50% or more higher fert prices it’s a bit scary
Yes, the ratios are about right, but I'd be applying more for higher yields. My instinct was that the grazing ground would make the poorest argument, but the 3 crops cost 10% of gross output in N, the grazing costs 5%, albeit with a lot more capital employed and work/ac.

The exercise was to work out how much of what I've got/ordered to spread. In my mind this is priced at the replacement cost in new season.
 

silverfox

Member
Location
Shropshire
For grassland ,chicken muck wants buying now and sheeting up so it comes out like rocket fuelled black peat next spring . How many farmers will blow the sfp on fert rather than wait and see? Sod fert at anywhere near its current price, if nobody bought any im sure it would drop.
I think if no one buys it, they will divert loads to countries where they will , often subsidised by their government like India are doing .
 

county down

Member
Location
downpatrick
I think if no one buys it, they will divert loads to countries where they will , often subsidised by their government like India are doing .
indian gov is very smart subsidise fert for mainly small farms so that enough food gets produced to feed their country george eustice doesnt see any rationale in this and hes supposed to be the agrictural mentor in this gov new zealand only sending 3 boat load of lamb this christmas instead of6 or 7 reason they can get more for it elsewhere we could be very hungry before 2023
 

Werzle

Member
Location
Midlands
Not if feed wheat hits £250t by harvest.
Doubtfull, longterm view isnt that great . I would say with logistic issues with the chicken job and pubs being half empty the demand for corn will drop off, especially on the back of a bumper harvest imo. Farmers be crying they flocked to buy dear fert to supply cheap corn next year
 

Renaultman

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Darlington
Doubtfull, longterm view isnt that great . I would say with logistic issues with the chicken job and pubs being half empty the demand for corn will drop off, especially on the back of a bumper harvest imo. Farmers be crying they flocked to buy dear fert to supply cheap corn next year
I'm not so sure a a out the bumper harvest? As always it all boils down to the biofuel market IMHO. Keep E10 and the market will at least hold at current levels.
 

teslacoils

Member
Location
Lincolnshire
Have been 'told' that some big players; buying groups & farming companies may have been in the bunfight as things rocketed with little or no cover. Is this actually the case?

By 'told' that is exactly what I mean-I have not been categorically informed of this as fact. Woldmarsh were mentioned...there are surely some members who may want to comment.

For clarity, we, I, would normally buy 2nd & 3rd cut silage N after new year for delivery before June. Looks like a stretching job on my urea!
I wouldn't expect my buying group to "take a position" on fert without confirmed customer orders. Buying groups don't run their members businesses so without orders why would they buy fert?

I get a sheet every year where I can out in my fert needs, and confirm if this is a firm order to purchase. If I don't put it down as a firm order I get a call when the season kicks off to sort it. We've been made aware of the fert situation several times earlier in the season.

This year I ordered nothing in advance. Come September I rang the buying group and was told there simply were no terms on fert that day. I told the lass that as soon as there were terms I'd buy. She rang back on the Monday, we confirmed an (at the time) appalling price. It's due on Wednesday. It's still £200+ a ton cheaper than spot.

My frontier rep had *no nitrogen fert* available to sell me between 16the September and 1st October. My gleadell rep very candidly told me the price for piamon was dear but that it would look a great price a few weeks later. And it does. Must admit that I let my pride get in the way of a deal this year, and that it has cost me maybe £9k. But on the flip side that's still looking like £11k better than today's prices, and will be in the shed.

Exactly how much fert has actually been imported since June, and is scheduled to arrive before April? It's naff all. UK fert sales are low for the time of year and the logistics between now and then are not good. Today's lorry driver had come out of retirement to help a family firm out for a bit.
 

county down

Member
Location
downpatrick
Even 2.5 ton acre of wheat is ok at £200 ton, if you’ve spent bugger all on it .
if we fallowed 30% of our land we would have a normal crop of 14million ton of grain in a normal year what do you think the price would rise because of the 6million ton of grain which isnt there could it rise 50% so we would be no worse off if the price did not rise we would have cleared our face on the fallow ground do you think it would work i dont think the gov will have considered this not smart enough
 

Fuzzy

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Bedfordshire
Same could be said of food or gas.

Problem of playing that game is that you’ll end up breaking before they ever will.

It’s a global issue of lack of supply. If we won’t pay the price someone else will.
But who is going to pay £600+ a tonne anywhere in the world? Who will they sell it too ??
 

Steevo

Member
Location
Gloucestershire
But who is going to pay £600+ a tonne anywhere in the world? Who will they sell it too ??

Anyone whose business is contracted to rent land, or with payments on machinery in order to produce food. Without fertiliser they face paying out their rent, and those other fixed costs with zero return.
As @teslacoils says - better a possible small loss than certain large one.

Also depends which governments decide to subsidise their food production industry.
 

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