- Location
- Lincolnshire
Be like me, do nothing.If wheat is £300/t in 12 months' time then maybe.
Frankly I don't know what the hell to do for the best at the moment.
Be like me, do nothing.If wheat is £300/t in 12 months' time then maybe.
Frankly I don't know what the hell to do for the best at the moment.
If you KNEW the answer to that question you would be a very rich manIs there any possibility at all of a significant drop in prices (ie AN sub 450, urea sub 550) before the spring?
Don’t do it ,price will drop
Most of my livestock neighbours have said they'll manage without next year , simply can't afford itThe trouble is that could be when the "new season" prices come out next June and the bulk of the sales kick off again.
I can't see traders will be too keen to keep too much stock at these prices. Imagine if they got stuck with a boatload of urea at £800/t.....and then the price drops to £500/t! Heard one trader comment that there will come a time that they will shut the book and draw a line under any more sales and say there is no more to be had. If you knew farmers were 90% bought would you be ordering another boatload at £800/t...?
It's not so much when the price drops.....as when the shipment the traders bought at a lower price price actually arrives. If 3-4 farmers phone up in Feb/Mar wanting 50t each, that won't justify having another boat.
This. Assuming that world urea prices are still at record levels then any boat brought now, will be full of urea at this price. This boat might arrive in January so if there is any unbrought urea on the boat it will be at these elevated prices I would of thought. Until the world market price drops and boats are ordered at lower levels we are unlikely to see lower prices. However if the price drops over the next few weeks which it may well, then these boats arriving in Feb/March may well be cheaperIt's not so much when the price drops.....as when the shipment the traders bought at a lower price price actually arrives.
Is any of it still unpriced?It is……. Hope you have bought some.
But who knows when it was bought, not sure if you know shipping or not, but you can’t order on a Tuesday and have it delivered on a Wednesday.
When buying vessels you commit to a fixed price FOB, CFR, CIF etc, more often than not in euros or dollars and a fixed delivery period. Whether you sell it or not is the prerogative of the buyer.Is any of it still unpriced?
Vlad has got us by the testes .I'd be interested to know from those in the trade, if someone rang up a supplier of decent granular urea to order 10,000t or whatever, how soon could it be delivered, bagged and git out to farm in the UK? It must be two weeks just the journey, plus getting the boat chartered, loading, unloading, port capacity, bagging, lorries etc.
I think the ship has sailed (lol) for much arriving in good time if not already ordered.
I'd be interested to know from those in the trade, if someone rang up a supplier of decent granular urea to order 10,000t or whatever, how soon could it be delivered, bagged and git out to farm in the UK? It must be two weeks just the journey, plus getting the boat chartered, loading, unloading, port capacity, bagging, lorries etc.
I think the ship has sailed (lol) for much arriving in good time if not already ordered.
In essence yes but usually end up paying the manufacturer before payment from farm gate.Fascinating stuff!
Sounds like in a normal year, 60 days BOL payment terms would mean merchants may just about have the cash (assuming 28 day payment) before they pay for the cargo.
This year as you say though…..having to stump it all up front would be quite a cashflow issue!
In essence yes but usually end up paying the manufacturer before payment from farm gate.
also means paying for product that you haven’t seen and is being loaded onto a boat in another country.
Makes the relationship with trusted suppliers very valuable.
EDIT: also just to add, we have to pay all the VAT and any Duty up front to her majesty’s at the time of clearing customs
To some extent, the situation has been exacerbated by the particularly aggressive pricing of the UK's domestic AN producer during May-September.possibly some traders may have volume for Dec but unlikely
Arrival early Jan (week 2).
5 days to discharge the boat on the basis it’s a dry week, realistically 7 working days
Depending on the facility, bagging at around 500t a day (urea is slow to bag) (single shift) would finish bagging mid feb.
the bigger issue is finding the $10m to pay for it, usual terms are 60days from BoL but with prices as they are credit limits are stretched and payment is required upfront.
also most importers and blenders start to move to nitrate at the start of the new year.
What is certain is that the global cereal production system will be stressed!To some extent, the situation has been exacerbated by the particularly aggressive pricing of the UK's domestic AN producer during May-September.
As you well know, Granular Urea was trading globally at a $30-$50/mt premium to the corresponding AN prices during the same period. Even if you calculated with a small inefficiency factor favouring Nitrates. Slightly less so if you compared to inhibited Urea. Simultaneously, they were also discounted too, in pure £/kg of N terms, the EU nitrate producers.
The result being and compared to the 5-year average, Granular Urea shipments have been very much behind the normal pace of imports during the same period. Only when the domestic AN producer exited the market in September, citing high gas costs, was there an opportunity for traders to make Urea work, price wise.
Sadly, warehouses at ports are not elastic sided. There's only so much logistic capacity, as @Southwestmassive highlights, to process tonnes from their arrival to being where they're required - on farm.
It's widely rumoured that upwards of 300kt AN equivalent Nitrogen will be missing from the supply side for the 2021-22 cropping year. Maybe some of this will be offset by demand destruction caused by high prices? It's difficult to know exactly as the RB209 "Bible" only guides on prices up to £483 for AN.
Essentially, the UK fertiliser distribution system is "stressed". Those saying, "wait, it'll drop in price", I admire your optimism. Good luck!
Completely agree, and unfortunately it will be the third world countries that suffer.What is certain is that the global cereal production system will be stressed!
What is certain is that the global cereal production system has never suffered anything like this stress before!
What is uncertain is how these massive supply and demand changes will affect the market.
I fear starvation for some is looking inevitable.
absolutely!Completely agree, and unfortunately it will be the third world countries that suffer.
If you can get UK AN for £600ish then buy some as there doesnt seem to be any logic behind the price.
Could this spell the end of UK manufactured AN????
Price went at 13:00absolutely!
~£600 is the cheapest Nitrogen in the region, by miles. The French are paying somewhere around £680 equivalent.
India just paid the UK AN equivalent of ~£680/mt. That was for just shy of 500kt.
Their next tender is already underway; this time with traders participating. They need ~3mmt before the end of March. With China and Russia curtailing exports to varying degrees, the Indian supply options look limited. 150kt from the last tender will ship from Egypt; the top source for the product to the EU and UK markets.
To repeat. ~£600 is Xmas come early. Get it covered - from what I heard, offers expire at cob today.