Fertiliser Price Tracker

[Just because]

Pullan straight N £697

 

[nonemouse]

did the sirius mine actually produce anything yet bought by anglo american who can afford to develop it the government didnt even try to help them with loans really sad something which would have been a great asset to the country

The Anglo American owned woodsmith mine is still in construction phase so not mined anything yet. The polyhalite solid in the uk is coming out of the old boulby potash mine (now owned by ICL) production switched as the potash seams became worked out.

 

[Flatlander]

Msgd two friends that are Chem/fert retailers. Neither had heard of any softening in the market. keep in mind the US sometimes offer up prices in US dollars per short ton. 2000lbs.

 

[scholland]

Any new from the fert experts?

@Planet Bee @crazy_bull

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1479119072444907527

 

[Planet Bee]

Any new from the fert experts?

@Planet Bee @crazy_bull

Expert?

Defined as, "A has-been under pressure"?

Assuming you were referencing the Urea market, the US relies on immediate liquidity. Incoming vessels needed a home. They also have a sizeable domestic production capacity which is different to the situation in our corner of the planet. Warehouses are not elastic sided and the only way to stimulate movement was with price. The low's of yesterday were a bargain, globally speaking. Today, much of the discount has been recovered and it's back to where it was.

Locally, the domestic AN producer is still without an offer into the market. Might not mean much today but come 4-6 weeks when applications have started and top-up is being called for, I doubt that the price part will matter; more of a case of can it be delivered in time.

To my knowledge, there's only one Urea cargo of 10kt lined up to arrive into Immingham for end Jan; it's under load now in Damietta, Egypt. I would imagine most of it is already committed as are the limited stocks we've seen imported for the 21-22 campaign.

Urea imports have lagged this year as the domestic AN producer had a particularly aggressive pricing strategy at the start of the season in June. It didn't make economic sense for importers to compete, at a clear loss. Only when Nat Gas prices forced the AN producer upwards, was there a trading opportunity for importers to consider it worth the risk lining up $10m cargoes.

We're at a critical point. ADHB advised that cereal farmers need reduce applications to account for the high Fert prices compared to the prevailing (forward) crop price. There's certainly not enough Nitrogen available for a "100%" crop and the unknown is what demand destruction there'd be as a result of the advice. This is influenced by the average price paid for the inputs - there being no such thing as an average farmer.

Logistics are clearly a problem. There's now only one AN plant running in the UK and there's no way that deliveries by road can be made to the whole of the UK by road. Indeed, the producer has for the first time in ages, shipped domestic tonnage around the UK, at humungous cost, to alleviate the logistic crush. Being AN, it's not been an easy feat considering the obvious safety considerations.

All said, most growers have something to get going with and I hope by now that it's been delivered. With a notable few exceptions, growers had the opportunities to buy every day since June with the information to hand. This was the year to have bought early said Captain Obvious.

 

[Chae1]

Expert?

Defined as, "A has-been under pressure"?

Assuming you were referencing the Urea market, the US relies on immediate liquidity. Incoming vessels needed a home. They also have a sizeable domestic production capacity which is different to the situation in our corner of the planet. Warehouses are not elastic sided and the only way to stimulate movement was with price. The low's of yesterday were a bargain, globally speaking. Today, much of the discount has been recovered and it's back to where it was.

Locally, the domestic AN producer is still without an offer into the market. Might not mean much today but come 4-6 weeks when applications have started and top-up is being called for, I doubt that the price part will matter; more of a case of can it be delivered in time.

To my knowledge, there's only one Urea cargo of 10kt lined up to arrive into Immingham for end Jan; it's under load now in Damietta, Egypt. I would imagine most of it is already committed as are the limited stocks we've seen imported for the 21-22 campaign.

Urea imports have lagged this year as the domestic AN producer had a particularly aggressive pricing strategy at the start of the season in June. It didn't make economic sense for importers to compete, at a clear loss. Only when Nat Gas prices forced the AN producer upwards, was there a trading opportunity for importers to consider it worth the risk lining up $10m cargoes.

We're at a critical point. ADHB advised that cereal farmers need reduce applications to account for the high Fert prices compared to the prevailing (forward) crop price. There's certainly not enough Nitrogen available for a "100%" crop and the unknown is what demand destruction there'd be as a result of the advice. This is influenced by the average price paid for the inputs - there being no such thing as an average farmer.

Logistics are clearly a problem. There's now only one AN plant running in the UK and there's no way that deliveries by road can be made to the whole of the UK by road. Indeed, the producer has for the first time in ages, shipped domestic tonnage around the UK, at humungous cost, to alleviate the logistic crush. Being AN, it's not been an easy feat considering the obvious safety considerations.

All said, most growers have something to get going with and I hope by now that it's been delivered. With a notable few exceptions, growers had the opportunities to buy every day since June with the information to hand. This was the year to have bought early said Captain Obvious.

Expert?

Defined as, "A has-been under pressure"?

Assuming you were referencing the Urea market, the US relies on immediate liquidity. Incoming vessels needed a home. They also have a sizeable domestic production capacity which is different to the situation in our corner of the planet. Warehouses are not elastic sided and the only way to stimulate movement was with price. The low's of yesterday were a bargain, globally speaking. Today, much of the discount has been recovered and it's back to where it was.

Locally, the domestic AN producer is still without an offer into the market. Might not mean much today but come 4-6 weeks when applications have started and top-up is being called for, I doubt that the price part will matter; more of a case of can it be delivered in time.

To my knowledge, there's only one Urea cargo of 10kt lined up to arrive into Immingham for end Jan; it's under load now in Damietta, Egypt. I would imagine most of it is already committed as are the limited stocks we've seen imported for the 21-22 campaign.

Urea imports have lagged this year as the domestic AN producer had a particularly aggressive pricing strategy at the start of the season in June. It didn't make economic sense for importers to compete, at a clear loss. Only when Nat Gas prices forced the AN producer upwards, was there a trading opportunity for importers to consider it worth the risk lining up $10m cargoes.

We're at a critical point. ADHB advised that cereal farmers need reduce applications to account for the high Fert prices compared to the prevailing (forward) crop price. There's certainly not enough Nitrogen available for a "100%" crop and the unknown is what demand destruction there'd be as a result of the advice. This is influenced by the average price paid for the inputs - there being no such thing as an average farmer.

Logistics are clearly a problem. There's now only one AN plant running in the UK and there's no way that deliveries by road can be made to the whole of the UK by road. Indeed, the producer has for the first time in ages, shipped domestic tonnage around the UK, at humungous cost, to alleviate the logistic crush. Being AN, it's not been an easy feat considering the obvious safety considerations.

All said, most growers have something to get going with and I hope by now that it's been delivered. With a notable few exceptions, growers had the opportunities to buy every day since June with the information to hand. This was the year to have bought early said Captain Obvious.

Thanks for your input.

 

[PSQ]

The Anglo American owned woodsmith mine is still in construction phase so not mined anything yet. The polyhalite solid in the uk is coming out of the old boulby potash mine (now owned by ICL) production switched as the potash seams became worked out.

did the sirius mine actually produce anything yet bought by anglo american who can afford to develop it the government didnt even try to help them with loans really sad something which would have been a great asset to the country

I stand corrected. It's the Sirius Mine, but Anglo American. I asked the driver if it was coming out of Boulby (ICL) and he said it was Sirius. It looks like they're in production and hauling product by road to the old steel works bulk terminal for export while they finish the tunnel, as per the original Sirius plan:

Redcar Bulk Terminal signs major land and handling deal with Sirius Minerals PLC

britishsteel.co.uk

 

[nonemouse]

I stand corrected. It's the Sirius Mine, but Anglo American. I asked the driver if it was coming out of Boulby (ICL) and he said it was Sirius. It looks like they're in production and hauling product by road to the old steel works bulk terminal for export while they finish the tunnel, as per the original Sirius plan:

Redcar Bulk Terminal signs major land and handling deal with Sirius Minerals PLC

britishsteel.co.uk

Surprised if it actually is coming out of woodsmith mine, last press reports I saw, still talked about target was to have it in production by 2024, and part of the planning permissions was that fert wouldn’t be hauled out of the national park by road. Although I’m not close enough to see what is happening at the moment.

 

[Renaultman]

Surprised if it actually is coming out of woodsmith mine, last press reports I saw, still talked about target was to have it in production by 2024, and part of the planning permissions was that fert wouldn’t be hauled out of the national park by road. Although I’m not close enough to see what is happening at the moment.

I'm wondering if it's what they're digging out to sink the shafts, I could probably find out, if anyone is that interested?

 

[crazy_bull]

Any new from the fert experts?

@Planet Bee @crazy_bull

unfortunatley I am still of the opinion prices stay firm for the short term, the spot drop in price seen earlier this week with NOLA urea has already vanished, with Feb trading back up, and globally there is still issues around getting product in the right places at the right time. Prices will correct I am sure, but will take some time for inventorys to re-build and for suppliers to be fighting for business as opposed to being knocked over in the rush to buy.

 

[redsloe]

Quoted £680/t for yara extran today, plus a fiver for next month. Only asked out of curiosity.

 

[TomB]

Urea FOB Egypt Feb '22 Futures Price - Barchart.com

Urea FOB Egypt futures price quote with latest real-time prices, charts, financials, latest news, technical analysis and opinions.

www.barchart.com

Shows Egypt urea down to $765

 

[county down]

Urea FOB Egypt Feb '22 Futures Price - Barchart.com

Urea FOB Egypt futures price quote with latest real-time prices, charts, financials, latest news, technical analysis and opinions.

www.barchart.com

Shows Egypt urea down to $765

if it would fall to $600 it would help

 

[Gedd]

Lithan £680 blended 20.10.10.£580 no cf prices

 

[Eartha Kitt]

International prices are softer but there are other factors involved, such as:

It is January, therefore the window to import is getting smaller by the day. It takes a good 3-4 weeks to bring a cargo of urea from Egypt and then process this through a store.
Stocks in the UK are low. The majority of stock sat at a port will be sold.
CF still not out with a price.
CF only running one plant.
Why would any importer take the risk of bringing in a cargo of urea now when they risk not being able to sell it. I do not imagine farmers wanting any carryover either.
Any potential effect of Covid sickness. If an importer is unable to process product through a store or deliver in good time due to Covid staff sickness, this then opens risk to a potential carryover.

 

[Devil's advocate]

Surprised if it actually is coming out of woodsmith mine, last press reports I saw, still talked about target was to have it in production by 2024, and part of the planning permissions was that fert wouldn’t be hauled out of the national park by road. Although I’m not close enough to see what is happening at the moment.

If USA owned.

Its a case of America first, hope there were no motor cyclists in the way,

 

[Chae1]

Fertiliser giant CF Industries paid £4.5m dividend before bailout

The payout has been disclosed in the most recent accounts for CF Industries (UK). It produces about 60 per cent of the UK's commercial CO2.

www.thisismoney.co.uk

 

[jackrussell101]

Disgusting

 

[JCfarmer]

Thats just about right!

 

[county down]

Thats just about right!

how much subsidy do you think they were getting for every ton of fertiliser produced