Fertiliser Price Tracker

Same here, ordered mid December for end of January delivery, been delivered this morning. The haulage company wanted to deliver it 2 days after I ordered it, threatened that I might not get it til March or April if I didn't take it due to shortage of hauliers 🤣🤣
On the other hand, I ordered first days of November for November/December delivery and still haven’t heard anything, perhaps timing is down to availability of a back load ?
 

crazy_bull

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Huntingdon
@crazy_bull , @Eartha Kitt , etc is the concensus then that fert volumes are down this year? Or have folk just bought the same but at higher prices?

from what I’ve seen half the early orders were as per normal with perhaps 1/4 ordering 50-75% to hedge bets and 1/4 who normally order early not do anything at all and then fall into: later orderers have either ordered the same, less or none at all!! So overall orders are lower than normal. Quoting for volume every day, so many have had the head in the sand hoping for prices to fall back for the last £200 rise ☹️

C B
 

teslacoils

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
Ty. I wasn't overly digging for info! But so far I've not heard of any lack of fert getting to, say, India, and the only person admitting they didn't book it all on day one in the area is....me.

I read an article saying India capped domestic urea prices at c£70 a ton. Ooof.
 

e3120

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Northumberland
I guess largest demand destruction will come from the grassland sector, with plentiful forage made last year and so far mild winter? They can ‘afford’ to cut back on fert…… 🤷🏼‍♂️
Even in the grassland sector, most of the volume goes to those of us that are pretty committed to decent rates, as the rest of the system is geared accordingly.

I'd say that those who can opt to use less don't represent that much of usual volumes.
 

neilo

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Montgomeryshire
Ty. I wasn't overly digging for info! But so far I've not heard of any lack of fert getting to, say, India, and the only person admitting they didn't book it all on day one in the area is....me.

I read an article saying India capped domestic urea prices at c£70 a ton. Ooof.

How does one go about getting an Indian passport?🤔
 

PSQ

Member
Arable Farmer
If this all works out well for Russia and China, will 2023 be more of the same ? 2024 ? Maybe a new norm for the foreseeable.🥺
If this was a game of chess, you'd have to wonder what strategy China was aiming for. After reading the article below you'd almost wonder if many of the worlds heavily indebted small countries aren't sailing dangerously close to 'check mate'. Tight fertiliser supply, a weather event somewhere, shortages of foodstuffs leading to 'Arab Spring' type uprisings, and governments around the world will sell their souls (and mineral rights) in perpetuity to China:

DALIAN, China/TOKYO -- Less than 20% of the world's population has managed to stockpile more than half of the globe's maize and other grains, leading to steep price increases across the planet and dropping more countries into famine.

The hoarding is taking place in China.

COFCO Group, a major Chinese state-owned food processor, runs one of China's largest food stockpiling bases, at the port of Dalian, in the northeastern part of the country. It stores beans and grains gathered from home and abroad in 310 huge silos. From there, the calories make their way throughout China via rail and sea.



China is maintaining its food stockpiles at a "historically high level," Qin Yuyun, head of grain reserves at the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration, told reporters in November. "Our wheat stockpiles can meet demand for one and a half years. There is no problem whatsoever about the supply of food."
 

Flatlander

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lorette Manitoba
If this was a game of chess, you'd have to wonder what strategy China was aiming for. After reading the article below you'd almost wonder if many of the worlds heavily indebted small countries aren't sailing dangerously close to 'check mate'. Tight fertiliser supply, a weather event somewhere, shortages of foodstuffs leading to 'Arab Spring' type uprisings, and governments around the world will sell their souls (and mineral rights) in perpetuity to China:

DALIAN, China/TOKYO -- Less than 20% of the world's population has managed to stockpile more than half of the globe's maize and other grains, leading to steep price increases across the planet and dropping more countries into famine.

The hoarding is taking place in China.

COFCO Group, a major Chinese state-owned food processor, runs one of China's largest food stockpiling bases, at the port of Dalian, in the northeastern part of the country. It stores beans and grains gathered from home and abroad in 310 huge silos. From there, the calories make their way throughout China via rail and sea.



China is maintaining its food stockpiles at a "historically high level," Qin Yuyun, head of grain reserves at the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration, told reporters in November. "Our wheat stockpiles can meet demand for one and a half years. There is no problem whatsoever about the supply of food."
Countries stockpiling supplies and hoarding what they produce would be a good strategy in times of war. Today I think its more of a commodity war. If China has enough grain for a year and a half I cant see them pushing the worldwide prices higher and once they withdraw from the market place uncertainty sets in creating a mini crash. Traders do it most days With the help of weather issues,political problems pandemics and any other excuse that will come in handy .The media love a dramatic story that’s been fed to them and used as puppets to hype up even the slightest issue.
 
@crazy_bull , @Eartha Kitt , etc is the concensus then that fert volumes are down this year? Or have folk just bought the same but at higher prices?
I would say orders are running slightly behind usual, however there will be some demand destruction with N prices where they are. This said, I would think most farmers average buy price for N is not too bad, and whilst topping up at these levels is not ideal, it is not the end of the world when looking at the average. So I sense there will be reasonable spring demand.
What is interesting is when you look at imported fertiliser tonnes and UK production for this season so far - both of which are well down on previous years. This is why I believe most of what has been imported to the UK is allocated to existing orders. There are definitely supplies of N about the country - CF now offering Nitram; tonnes of urea & imported AN at Immingham and some availability on the west coast. Apart from this the cupboards are pretty bare for this time of year. So assuming little fresh imports of N, is there enough product between CF and what is currently in the country to satisfy demand? 🤷‍♂️
 

SFI - What % were you taking out of production?

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Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

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As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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