Fertiliser Price Tracker

Badshot

Member
Location
Kent
In effect what were experiencing with the fertiliser price is what happens when demand outstrips supply by a large amount.
The next few years are going to be exciting with the knock on effects to crop yields.
 

WRXppp

Member
Location
North Yorks
My cropping decision is made with half an eye on the prices in may / June. First priority is cover rent, then look at likely profit and risk. If I can make the same money with less risk and less investment, I'll do that. I expect a 20 percent return on cash invested in growing crop.
Well I’m sat here having just taken my aunt to drop off some clothes to my uncle in hospital and 12 months ago I took the same road taking them for their 1st jabs and it’s like driving through heaven compared to last years hell looking at the roadside crops, hedge to hedge good looking crops, not half fields, missing patch’s or lakes or the headlands where there’s only odd bits of green after they had been puddled in, potential is clearly there.
Southern Hemisphere harvest, the last grown with 100% ”cheap” NPK don’t seem bumper and of course here on our isles how much will be grown with ”cheap“ NPK allowing leeway for 100% potential at relatively less risk is anyone’s guess, the trade is in the difficult position of not wanting to cause concern with stocks for those that need without being seen as profiteering from the situation.
Farming with it’s buying in June one year the major input, N, of a milling wheat crop which is harvested in august the following year to be sold in June the following year is pretty risky, I’m just a lad with 90 acres of feed barley and to begin to plan after this cropping year is like pinning water to the wall.
All the very best to all for the coming cropping year.
 

Homesy

Member
Location
North West Devon
In effect what were experiencing with the fertiliser price is what happens when demand outstrips supply by a large amount.
The next few years are going to be exciting with the knock on effects to crop yields.
Exciting is not a word I would use. We are all playing roulette with our livelihoods. The bigger the bubble gets the more unstable it becomes. How much money we make is more down to chance than ever before. The markets will eventually crash when decides your fate.
 

som farmer

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
somerset
Exciting is not a word I would use. We are all playing roulette with our livelihoods. The bigger the bubble gets the more unstable it becomes. How much money we make is more down to chance than ever before. The markets will eventually crash when decides your fate.
disagree, no one can survive without food. The only way food keeps cheap, is because we are stupid enough to keep pumping it out, as we are encouraged to, and accepting a lower price, by raising our yields, the best way we can, that's usually more fert.

If we cannot, or wont, buy and use fert, because it is uneconomic to do so, there is a choice, price of grain/meat/milk, goes up to cover the price, or, less is used, which decreases supply.
Globally, food supply/demand, is very finely balanced, any decrease in supply, means shortages, to stop those shortages, price will have to rise, to tempt us to increase supply, and that is by paying more. As fert price is a global commodity, the same argument applies to virtually all countries, across the globe, so they cannot import cheap food.

And, unless there is a huge reverse of 'climate change' policies/commitments, demand, will be greater than supply, for a long time. And that, for us, is good news.
Decreased use of fert, is also good news for the climate change zealots,, ............... until they go to buy their food.
 

Fuzzy

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Bedfordshire
If 40% supply of something stops (European fertiliser supply) then prices increase significantly, just because the cost of production reduces, it doesn't mean that supply just magically appears overnight to reduce the sales price.
I didn't say overnight, (imo it wont have a big impact on early 2022 spring prices)but some of the debate has been about new season prices of £500+ ...which is rubbish based on current prices. Also Gas prices reduce in the summer due to much lower demand. We were told in the past that Gas represents 70% of the production cost of AN and that Fert Producers do not buy gas forward.
They cant have it both ways, if they had bought gas on forward contracts fert prices would currently be at 2019/2020 levels and all factories would be open. If they buy at spot prices the recent high AN prices will plummet very quickly as the new lower gas prices roll into the production lines !!!
 

som farmer

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
somerset
lets be honest, if, in the spring, fert drops back £100-£150/ton, all hell will break loose, and rightly so, so for that reason it won't alter much. And from their point of business, having got us used to high prices, they will cash in, barstewards. However l do not think it will ever get back down to what we think of, as normal price.
 

Fuzzy

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Bedfordshire
In effect what were experiencing with the fertiliser price is what happens when demand outstrips supply by a large amount.
The next few years are going to be exciting with the knock on effects to crop yields.
I dont agree, imo fert price is high due to cost of GAS, the fert producers have taken a view on production capacity due to the unprecedented situation and opened/shut factories based on what they can actually sell. The impact on crops yields you are correct.
 
I didn't say overnight, (imo it wont have a big impact on early 2022 spring prices)but some of the debate has been about new season prices of £500+ ...which is rubbish based on current prices. Also Gas prices reduce in the summer due to much lower demand. We were told in the past that Gas represents 70% of the production cost of AN and that Fert Producers do not buy gas forward.
They cant have it both ways, if they had bought gas on forward contracts fert prices would currently be at 2019/2020 levels and all factories would be open. If they buy at spot prices the recent high AN prices will plummet very quickly as the new lower gas prices roll into the production lines !!!
I don't see new season prices over £500. £300 maybe, but not £500.
 
disagree, no one can survive without food. The only way food keeps cheap, is because we are stupid enough to keep pumping it out, as we are encouraged to, and accepting a lower price, by raising our yields, the best way we can, that's usually more fert.

If we cannot, or wont, buy and use fert, because it is uneconomic to do so, there is a choice, price of grain/meat/milk, goes up to cover the price, or, less is used, which decreases supply.
Globally, food supply/demand, is very finely balanced, any decrease in supply, means shortages, to stop those shortages, price will have to rise, to tempt us to increase supply, and that is by paying more. As fert price is a global commodity, the same argument applies to virtually all countries, across the globe, so they cannot import cheap food.

And, unless there is a huge reverse of 'climate change' policies/commitments, demand, will be greater than supply, for a long time. And that, for us, is good news.
Decreased use of fert, is also good news for the climate change zealots,, ............... until they go to buy their food.
so my store cattle price is going to increase?
 

Half Pipe

Member
At somepoint will fert manufacturing output increase with cheaper gas and possibly increased infrastructure?
Must be a country/company seeing an opportunity when fert is at such high prices!
 

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HSENI names new farm safety champions

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Written by William Kellett from Agriland

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The Health and Safety Executive for Northern Ireland (HSENI) alongside the Farm Safety Partnership (FSP), has named new farm safety champions and commended the outstanding work on farm safety that has been carried out in the farming community in the last 20 years.

Two of these champions are Malcom Downey, retired principal inspector for the Agri/Food team in HSENI and Harry Sinclair, current chair of the Farm Safety Partnership and former president of the Ulster Farmers’ Union (UFU).

Improving farm safety is the key aim of HSENI’s and the FSP’s work and...
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