Fertiliser Price Tracker

PSQ

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Scottish Borders
While NATO may not have boots on the ground, they’ll be using every tool at their disposal to discreetly support Ukrainian forces. Satellite imagery, covert surveillance, communication intercepts, ‘observers’ on the ground.
But with Russia’s previous dirty tricks using ‘false flag’ actors and Wagner Group mercenaries its not going to be a clean fight.
 

county down

Member
Location
downpatrick
It has nothing whatsoever to do with who is in The White House. It has all to do with Putin wanting to expand Russian influence and territory to bring it back to some semblance of a Soviet Union. There is a very very high chance of Russian forces attacking their own side using Ukranian uniforms, imminently, in order to justify an invasion of Ukraine. Just as they did in Crimea some five years or more ago. Putin says that they will not have NATO forces in Ukraine, next door to Russia, yet the paradox is that if they invade Ukraine they most certainly will have several NATO countries right next door to them, so that is not a valid excuse for war at all.

NATO will not intervene militarily to help Ukraine, that much is clear. It is not a NATO country. Western countries, including the USA do promise to increase sanctions and prohibitions on people and trade with Russia like never before, if it comes to it. If we do that though, first thing Russia will do is stop gas exports through Ukraine and the yet to be utilised new direct pipeline. This will freeze, literally, the Ukrainian people and, significantly, most of Western Europe including Germany and the UK. It will cause fertiliser to be basically unavailable at any price, let alone at £1000/ton or more. That, in turn, will cause massive food shortages and price rises unseen since the Second World War and beyond the experience of all but a small number of people left alive in Western Europe today.
worst case scenario but i dont think it will come to that
 
It has nothing whatsoever to do with who is in The White House. It has all to do with Putin wanting to expand Russian influence and territory to bring it back to some semblance of a Soviet Union. There is a very very high chance of Russian forces attacking their own side using Ukranian uniforms, imminently, in order to justify an invasion of Ukraine. Just as they did in Crimea some five years or more ago. Putin says that they will not have NATO forces in Ukraine, next door to Russia, yet the paradox is that if they invade Ukraine they most certainly will have several NATO countries right next door to them, so that is not a valid excuse for war at all.

NATO will not intervene militarily to help Ukraine, that much is clear. It is not a NATO country. Western countries, including the USA do promise to increase sanctions and prohibitions on people and trade with Russia like never before, if it comes to it. If we do that though, first thing Russia will do is stop gas exports through Ukraine and the yet to be utilised new direct pipeline. This will freeze, literally, the Ukrainian people and, significantly, most of Western Europe including Germany and the UK. It will cause fertiliser to be basically unavailable at any price, let alone at £1000/ton or more. That, in turn, will cause massive food shortages and price rises unseen since the Second World War and beyond the experience of all but a small number of people left alive in Western Europe today.
all this talk of russian agression against ukraine, doesnt anyone remember how usa funded the overthrowing of a democratically elected[russian friendly] ukranian govt a few years ago , victoria nuland of us state dept saying how they spent just $5billion starting a civil war to overthrow the ukranian govt and replace with a pro west govt
 

Cowabunga

Member
Location
Ceredigion,Wales
I’ve actually been talking with someone tonight who knows of several farmers, some quite large dairy farmers, that cannot pay any bills currently. Not a penny. What hope have they of paying £18,000 for a truckload of AN to produce the grass they must have for their predominantly Spring calving herds? Their banks will not increase their lending and they will not have any milk cheque until March at the earliest.
People underestimate the financial stress of many farmers out there. I think this will be a crunch year for more farms than usual. Personally I hope that farm gate prices will increase substantially faster than costs, because many farms do not have any slack whatsoever. One wonders why they bother with the stress that it must involve.

Others are doing OK of course, as usual. Its the ones at the two extremes that are under pressure. The ones with little borrowing but little income to live on either. At the other extreme, the very modern units that have expanded and invested heavily; too heavily with high costs and overheads.
 

Cowabunga

Member
Location
Ceredigion,Wales
all this talk of russian agression against ukraine, doesnt anyone remember how usa funded the overthrowing of a democratically elected[russian friendly] ukranian govt a few years ago , victoria nuland of us state dept saying how they spent just $5billion starting a civil war to overthrow the ukranian govt and replace with a pro west govt
No sane person trusts either the Russians or the Americans. Not even the UK Government is trustworthy for its own country and people for goodness’ sake! No country trusts the UK any longer since reneging on several deals done with the EU. We are an international laughing stock due to you-know-what.

The UK in particular is run by corrupt imbeciles. Very recent events at Number10 and the PPI procurement corruption confirm this without a shadow of a doubt. Where is our energy security? Sold off to foreign ownership and imports. Food security is going the same way. Two local farms, one recently a very productive dairy farm, have been sold off to an investment company who work on behalf of Cardiff Wales Airport in order to offset their carbon emission through planting it all to trees. About 600 acres between the two. What absolute crass absurdity! Lunacy!
 
Last edited:

Homesy

Member
Location
North West Devon
No sane person trusts either the Russians or the Americans. Not even the UK Government is trustworthy for its own country and people for goodness’ sake! No country trusts the UK any longer since reneging on several deals done with the EU. We are an international laughing stock due to you-know-what.

The UK in particular is run by imbeciles. Very recent events confirm this without a shadow of a doubt. Where is our energy security? Sold off to foreign ownership and imports. Food security is going the same way. Two local farms, one recently a very productive dairy farm, have been sold off to an investment company who work on behalf of Cardiff Wales Airport in order to offset their carbon emission through planting it all to trees. About 600 acres between the two. What absolute crass absurdity! Lunacy!
You seriously think the EU government are any better ?
1642314117525.png


The surrender of their energy supplies to Russia is the cause of the gas spike. We are at least building nuclear power stations. They are closing theirs. Utter madness.
 

egbert

Member
all this talk of russian agression against ukraine, doesnt anyone remember how usa funded the overthrowing of a democratically elected[russian friendly] ukranian govt a few years ago , victoria nuland of us state dept saying how they spent just $5billion starting a civil war to overthrow the ukranian govt and replace with a pro west govt
Did they?
(IE US start the civil war?)
I watched fairly carefully- having pals out east- and what I never heard was who had started shooting demonstrators the day after the Russian winter Olympics finished.
That was the kick off wasn't it?
It appeared to me that the start button was pressed from the East there.

The smooth and rapid seizing of Crimea certainly suggests plans were already laid....

As it unfolded, Putin was telling his country that the West was already IN Ukraine.
We scoffed when Russian chums told us this.....right up until some Western 'military advisers' were picked up.

The only thing I am sure of is that it is clearly a lot more complicated than we can easily see from here.
 

som farmer

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
somerset
No sane person trusts either the Russians or the Americans. Not even the UK Government is trustworthy for its own country and people for goodness’ sake! No country trusts the UK any longer since reneging on several deals done with the EU. We are an international laughing stock due to you-know-what.

The UK in particular is run by imbeciles. Very recent events confirm this without a shadow of a doubt. Where is our energy security? Sold off to foreign ownership and imports. Food security is going the same way. Two local farms, one recently a very productive dairy farm, have been sold off to an investment company who work on behalf of Cardiff Wales Airport in order to offset their carbon emission through planting it all to trees. About 600 acres between the two. What absolute crass absurdity! Lunacy!
it's a joke talking about politicians, they are merely front men, for the extremely rich group of elite, that run countries for their own advantage, from behind the scenes.
Perhaps the biggest joke is democracy, where we re-elect a new guv every 4/5 years, a system we are really proud of. What it actually means is, no guv is going to bring/reform policies in, that would be extremally unpopular with the electorate, however desperately they may be needed, reform of the NHS prime example, short term guv = short term policies.
The irony of it is, communism, or dictators, etc, actually allow reform, or long term policies, to be implemented - not that l would want to live under them.

No guv is completely trustworthy, the truth is politics are a back stabbing, twisting load of bull-shite, where deals are done, with backhanders, trade offs, and any other lying twisting things, that you can think of.

As to brexit, it was utterly stupidity of EU, as acknowledged by merkel, to have let it happen, but it did. And l don't really think the EU have kept their side of the bargain, l think their policy has been more to do with discouraging others to leave. Beyond doubt, the UK leaving has seriously weakened the union, hopefully not mortally.

And as many have said, the UK has mineral/oil deposits etc, that are the envy of more than the EU, it is the 'climate action' that stops them being utilised, one could argue, that by using them sensibly, is better than importing them, from where 'sensible' abstraction is ignored.

The world is rather unstable at the moment, and whatever happens, it is us, that will bear the fallout.
 
I’ve actually been talking with someone tonight who knows of several farmers, some quite large dairy farmers, that cannot pay any bills currently. Not a penny. What hope have they of paying £18,000 for a truckload of AN to produce the grass they must have for their predominantly Spring calving herds? Their banks will not increase their lending and they will not have any milk cheque until March at the earliest.
People underestimate the financial stress of many farmers out there. I think this will be a crunch year for more farms than usual. Personally I hope that farm gate prices will increase substantially faster than costs, because many farms do not have any slack whatsoever. One wonders why they bother with the stress that it must involve.

Others are doing OK of course, as usual. Its the ones at the two extremes that are under pressure. The ones with little borrowing but little income to live on either. At the other extreme, the very modern units that have expanded and invested heavily; too heavily with high costs and overheads.
If they’re in trouble already it ain’t good, the impact of higher prices have yet to filter through for many.
I’m sure many are like me, haven’t had to pay for any of this expensive fertiliser yet and still on electricity contracts signed before energy costs soared. Milk prices are creeping up, so far covering my increased feed and wage costs, will have a bigger jump in milk price this month but that won’t hit the bank before the end of February by which time there should be some fert here to pay for, my electricity contract will be coming up for renewal and of course, income tax will have to be paid shortly, add in general inflation on just about everything else and just about everything we buy is going to get more expensive.
In the short term higher milk prices are going to struggle to keep up with rising costs, only if they persist over the longer term will they fully pay for things like fert price increases which although seasonal expenditure only pay back over a yearly cycle, fert bought now for first cut silage that will still be being fed in 12 months time.
Question is, will the milk price increases be enough and will they last long enough.

Glad I’m not running a buisness under financial pressure but certainly don’t want to be working for nothing considering the work and money involved, indeed I have long been of the opinion that there isn’t really enough in the job all things considered
 

Werzle

Member
Location
Midlands
I’ve actually been talking with someone tonight who knows of several farmers, some quite large dairy farmers, that cannot pay any bills currently. Not a penny. What hope have they of paying £18,000 for a truckload of AN to produce the grass they must have for their predominantly Spring calving herds? Their banks will not increase their lending and they will not have any milk cheque until March at the earliest.
People underestimate the financial stress of many farmers out there. I think this will be a crunch year for more farms than usual. Personally I hope that farm gate prices will increase substantially faster than costs, because many farms do not have any slack whatsoever. One wonders why they bother with the stress that it must involve.

Others are doing OK of course, as usual. Its the ones at the two extremes that are under pressure. The ones with little borrowing but little income to live on either. At the other extreme, the very modern units that have expanded and invested heavily; too heavily with high costs and overheads.
Wouldnt have been so bad if high input prices started next year, but for inputs to rise just as farmers started seeing better returns was a bitter blow for them. No better off than they were before and now theres more risk handling bigger amounts of money
 

som farmer

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
somerset
l think we all hope for a more balanced relationship between us, processors and retailers, because, at the moment, it most certainly is not.
The 'just in time' policy that major retailers use, to source cheap food resources, basically following harvests around the world, international co-operation etc, is well and truly fudged.
And that is likely to take time to recover, if it ever can. This is at a time when world available food supply, is very finely balanced with demand. The global cost of fert, will mean less will be used, which will further reduce food production.

That is the fact, what effects us, is how the major retailers re-act. Most of them, have only ever seen short term shortages, followed by a glut, caused by them upping the price, and then reducing it, to recover their 'loss'. I rather think this time may/hopefully be a more long term event. Quite certain many young buyers, are still in short term mode, and expect a massive glut to follow these shortages, they may have a shock.

We all know their are some very potential 'hot spots' around the world, one on Europes border, these will affect trade, and following covid, there is a good mess to sort out, before things can even start to recover. Food and water, are the two things we cannot do without, and any disruption, will have a large impact.

Being selfish, and a farmer, any disruption or distortion of the food supply chain, is good for us, and any crap people talk about, 'it's our duty' to feed the world, is fine, if they look after, or be even thankful, which they don't, and even vilify us. So two fingers to them, and if they want more, let them pay a realistic price.
 

county down

Member
Location
downpatrick
l think we all hope for a more balanced relationship between us, processors and retailers, because, at the moment, it most certainly is not.
The 'just in time' policy that major retailers use, to source cheap food resources, basically following harvests around the world, international co-operation etc, is well and truly fudged.
And that is likely to take time to recover, if it ever can. This is at a time when world available food supply, is very finely balanced with demand. The global cost of fert, will mean less will be used, which will further reduce food production.

That is the fact, what effects us, is how the major retailers re-act. Most of them, have only ever seen short term shortages, followed by a glut, caused by them upping the price, and then reducing it, to recover their 'loss'. I rather think this time may/hopefully be a more long term event. Quite certain many young buyers, are still in short term mode, and expect a massive glut to follow these shortages, they may have a shock.

We all know their are some very potential 'hot spots' around the world, one on Europes border, these will affect trade, and following covid, there is a good mess to sort out, before things can even start to recover. Food and water, are the two things we cannot do without, and any disruption, will have a large impact.

Being selfish, and a farmer, any disruption or distortion of the food supply chain, is good for us, and any crap people talk about, 'it's our duty' to feed the world, is fine, if they look after, or be even thankful, which they don't, and even vilify us. So two fingers to them, and if they want more, let them pay a realistic price.
absolutely true were looked down at by people who should know better
 

czechmate

Member
Mixed Farmer
If they’re in trouble already it ain’t good, the impact of higher prices have yet to filter through for many.
I’m sure many are like me, haven’t had to pay for any of this expensive fertiliser yet and still on electricity contracts signed before energy costs soared. Milk prices are creeping up, so far covering my increased feed and wage costs, will have a bigger jump in milk price this month but that won’t hit the bank before the end of February by which time there should be some fert here to pay for, my electricity contract will be coming up for renewal and of course, income tax will have to be paid shortly, add in general inflation on just about everything else and just about everything we buy is going to get more expensive.
In the short term higher milk prices are going to struggle to keep up with rising costs, only if they persist over the longer term will they fully pay for things like fert price increases which although seasonal expenditure only pay back over a yearly cycle, fert bought now for first cut silage that will still be being fed in 12 months time.
Question is, will the milk price increases be enough and will they last long enough.

Glad I’m not running a buisness under financial pressure but certainly don’t want to be working for nothing considering the work and money involved, indeed I have long been of the opinion that there isn’t really enough in the job all things considered


I’m just interested, as you mention it a couple of times, is electricity a significant input for yourself? It’s just I might watch with more than a little interest what some inputs are doing here, but electricity is way down the list🤔
 

county down

Member
Location
downpatrick
I’m just interested, as you mention it a couple of times, is electricity a significant input for yourself? It’s just I might watch with more than a little interest what some inputs are doing here, but electricity is way down the list🤔
not really a big thing for stock farms but is for dairy farms or drying grain in a wet year
 

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Five nature-recovery projects spanning 100,000ha launched

  • 101
  • 1
Written by Michelle Martin from Agriland

Image-source-Savills-field-640x360.jpg
Five nature-recovery projects spanning nearly 100,000ha across the West Midlands, Cambridgeshire, the Peak District, Norfolk and Somerset have been announced by the government and Natural England today (Thursday, May 26).

This is the equivalent in size to all 219 current National Reserves.

The aim of the projects is to deliver nature recovery at a landscape scale, helping to tackle biodiversity loss, climate change and improve public health and well-being.

All five projects will make a significant contribution towards the national delivery of the international commitment to protect at least 30% of land and...
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