Fertiliser Price Tracker

B'o'B

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Rutland
Would be nice if they were but they don't really NEED to be on fert price increases alone.
But it isn’t just fert price that has gone up is it, everything has gone up.
Oh except the BPS.
Ag is cyclical at some point it is almost certain that we will have a pinch point of high input prices going into grow a crop with low sales price. And it could be at a time when we have very little of the comfort blanket of BPS left to fall back on.
 

Renaultman

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Darlington
But it isn’t just fert price that has gone up is it, everything has gone up.
Oh except the BPS.
Ag is cyclical at some point it is almost certain that we will have a pinch point of high input prices going into grow a crop with low sales price. And it could be at a time when we have very little of the comfort blanket of BPS left to fall back on.
True and we have the option to fix virtually all those costs and lock in to a sale price, if only we could lock in to a minimum yield :( Then this farming malarkey would be a doddle.
 

lloyd

Member
Location
Herefordshire
True and we have the option to fix virtually all those costs and lock in to a sale price, if only we could lock in to a minimum yield :( Then this farming malarkey would be a doddle.
How many times has selling the unharvested crop months ahead actually
been the best option?
I find most years they only want to pay a small price above the true cost of production taking into consideration average yield data.
 
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Renaultman

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Darlington
If you lock in at these wheat prices; grown UK average yields of wheat; buy and replace you npk at today's prices; and pay a fbt rent and true machinery cost & labour, then you won't make any profit.
What are you working on 3t/acre at £200.0 (not that I would dare sell 3t even though my average is higher) Suppose it would depend on establishment method and how much you are paying for the pleasure to farm?
 

Steevo

Member
Location
Gloucestershire
How many times has selling the unharvested crop months ahead actually
been the best option?
I find most years they only want to pay a small price above the true cost of production taking into consideration average yield data.

Precisely this!!!

The market usually assumes all the good news will happen and ignores any hiccups. It's always optimistic about next year's crop in order to keep prices down.

Yet 9/10 in my experience, things never go quite to plan, and because of all these assumptions and no planning for hiccups, the markets end up short and prices being to rise.

Imagine if you'd sold 2022 crop forward a few years ago, and are now facing having to face a sale price of £160/t, with fertiliser prices of £700/t.



There isn't much point "locking in a profit" as the traders love to call it if you don't have your costs fixed - you aren't locking in any profit at all.
 

Chae1

Member
Location
Aberdeenshire
How many times has selling the unharvested crop months ahead actually
been the best option?
I find most years they only want to pay a small price above the true cost of production taking into consideration average yield data.

I would say with the exception of 2020 and 2021 I have been better off selling forward.

This is Nov 22 futures plus £20 for malting barley contracts.

I've a tonnage locked in for 2022 harvest at £220/t. I don't think the spot market in 22/23 will beat this. But I can make a profit on it at current fert prices. A rise in chemical costs may erase this.
 

SFI - What % were you taking out of production?

  • 0 %

    Votes: 80 42.3%
  • Up to 25%

    Votes: 66 34.9%
  • 25-50%

    Votes: 30 15.9%
  • 50-75%

    Votes: 3 1.6%
  • 75-100%

    Votes: 3 1.6%
  • 100% I’ve had enough of farming!

    Votes: 7 3.7%

Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

  • 1,293
  • 1
As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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