Fertiliser Price Tracker

[lloyd]

I would say with the exception of 2020 and 2021 I have been better off selling forward.

This is Nov 22 futures plus £20 for malting barley contracts.

I've a tonnage locked in for 2022 harvest at £220/t. I don't think the spot market in 22/23 will beat this. But I can make a profit on it at current fert prices. A rise in chemical costs may erase this.

Malting barley contracts might be more generous as long as
the firms you deal with are sensible and dont reject loads when
the market goes against them.
I see you got upto £275t for barley lately ,you must foresee a big
slide in prices for the coming season.

 

[Eartha Kitt]

egyptian urea today 630dollars for february equates to £485 fob should be about £620 in uk in march something cheaper but will any shipper chance it has fallen$180 in last 10 weeks could it fall another$100 which would make an price completely wrong

It hasn't traded this low, more like low $700's fob, but well back on the highs. I suspect we'll see European buyers step in soon as it looks good value against AN and AN availability in Europe remains tight due to shutdowns etc

 

[David.]

I think there is still every chance of seeing an average '22 selling price of £160, with 700 quid fertilizer on it.

 

[lloyd]

I think there is still every chance of seeing an average '22 selling price of £160, with 700 quid fertilizer on it.

Would large amounts of fert not have been bought earlier at more sensible prices?
New prices in June could be interesting though especially if the forward price of
grain has a wobble which would tally with your comment.

 

[Eartha Kitt]

Would large amounts of fert not have been bought earlier at more sensible prices?
New prices in June could be interesting though especially if the forward price of
grain has a wobble which would tally with your comment.

Depends on what you call sensible. The last time we saw Egypt at the todays price was around September and I can guarantee anything pre-September will have been sold.

 

[lloyd]

Depends on what you call sensible. The last time we saw Egypt at the todays price was around September and I can guarantee anything pre-September will have been sold.

In your opinion will we see any better prices mid March
on ?

 

[farenheit]

I'm not an expert on this by any means, and I may be misinterpreting, but if you look at the futures prices for the next few years: https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/NF*0/futures-prices

you'll see a return to more normal prices per therm, so big producers can be hedging future prices and there's no reason why fertiliser prices should stay at these highs for ever.

 

[Eartha Kitt]

Very good question. It will all come down to stock levels (both CF & imported) and demand left in the UK. I do not think there will be the appetite to import much more and import stocks are already low, that is well known and can be seen when looking at import stats. I also get the sense that there are a lot of growers holding until March/April to complete their requirements, but to what extent is difficult to gauge. Sorry, I know that is a bit of a politicians answer.

 

[DRC]

I’d never personally sell more than 1.5 ton an acre of non harvested crop.was waiting for wheat to hit £200 a few weeks back but it never got there and dropped back further since
nick...

It did around here. I sold some at £203 off the combine . Beginning to wish I’d sold a lot more .

 

[nick...]

It did around here. I sold some at £203 off the combine . Beginning to wish I’d sold a lot more .

Ain’t hindsight brilliant.if I can get things right half the time that ain’t too bad.
nick...

 

[teslacoils]

What are you working on 3t/acre at £200.0 (not that I would dare sell 3t even though my average is higher) Suppose it would depend on establishment method and how much you are paying for the pleasure to farm?

8t/ha. Replacement p&k, rotational lime and moling 1/5. Disc and press, subsoil, roll, cultivator drill, roll. Preem, three splits of n, contractor fibrophos, four fungicides, cut and carted, outloaded, conditioned, bit of drying. Market fbt rent. Hedging one in three. Ditching one in five.

I've sold nothing forward. And fert not awful. Just saying if you got average yields at today's input and sales prices then there isn't much meat on the bone.

 

[lloyd]

8t/ha. Replacement p&k, rotational lime and moling 1/5. Disc and press, subsoil, roll, cultivator drill, roll. Preem, three splits of n, contractor fibrophos, four fungicides, cut and carted, outloaded, conditioned, bit of drying. Market fbt rent. Hedging one in three. Ditching one in five.

I've sold nothing forward. And fert not awful. Just saying if you got average yields at today's input and sales prices then there isn't much meat on the bone.

Seed cost ,royalty charges.Alternative income from grain store or
charges at co operative for storage.

 

[Steevo]

I think there is still every chance of seeing an average '22 selling price of £160, with 700 quid fertilizer on it.

Could be painful if '23 fertiliser price is similar too and it's being paid this June!

 

[Planet Bee]

Precisely this!!!

The market usually assumes all the good news will happen and ignores any hiccups. It's always optimistic about next year's crop in order to keep prices down.

Yet 9/10 in my experience, things never go quite to plan, and because of all these assumptions and no planning for hiccups, the markets end up short and prices being to rise.

Imagine if you'd sold 2022 crop forward a few years ago, and are now facing having to face a sale price of £160/t, with fertiliser prices of £700/t.



There isn't much point "locking in a profit" as the traders love to call it if you don't have your costs fixed - you aren't locking in any profit at all.

Steevo, to some extent, I respectfully disagree.

If you'd sold at £160, you'd have likely had the chance to buy, at that time, AN at sub £300. In my mind, that's locking in a profit, weather permitting and all going well, as we say in shipping circles.

Hedging input prices against outputs makes sense to me. At least a large portion of either decision.

Otherwise it's a trip to the casino.

 

[Steevo]

Steevo, to some extent, I respectfully disagree.

If you'd sold at £160, you'd have likely had the chance to buy, at that time, AN at sub £300. In my mind, that's locking in a profit, weather permitting and all going well, as we say in shipping circles.

Hedging input prices against outputs makes sense to me. At least a large portion of either decision.

Otherwise it's a trip to the casino.

I can understand that perspective.

Given the choice between:

1. buying inputs in advance and selling grain in advance
2. selling grain when you have it harvested and being a bit more flexible on inputs

I can see some would choose the supposed certainty option 1 might bring, but I prefer to deal with the present "knowns" rather than trying to live the future, in the present.

Personally I'd rather have grain in the barn before I sell it....and would value not being exposed to the "forward" risks more than I would value knowing I had the "profit" locked in.

Each to their own.

 

[Planet Bee]

I can understand that perspective.

Given the choice between:

1. buying inputs in advance and selling grain in advance
2. selling grain when you have it harvested and being a bit more flexible on inputs

I can see some would choose the supposed certainty option 1 might bring, but I prefer to deal with the present "knowns" rather than trying to live the future, in the present.

Personally I'd rather have grain in the barn before I sell it....and would value not being exposed to the "forward" risks more than I would value knowing I had the "profit" locked in.

Each to their own.

agreed.

probably best to have a hybrid of both

everyone likes to roll the dice now and again!

 

[Chae1]

Malting barley contracts might be more generous as long as
the firms you deal with are sensible and dont reject loads when
the market goes against them.
I see you got upto £275t for barley lately ,you must foresee a big
slide in prices for the coming season.

I just try to spread risk really. Like most I can't predict where markets are going.
This season will be the smallest tonnage we have ever had on contract.

 

[Flatlander]

I’m with Steevo on this one. i won’t sell what I don’t have. I have kept grain over until the next year quiet often and sold that on a forward contract but I have enough to cover it in a bin. Have neighbours here that sold all of 21s crop forward only to have a pee poor yield. Many cutting cheques to buy out the contracts and missing today’s higher prices. I’ve always figured grain trader are more in the know than me and if they are offering 200 a ton it’s going to be more than likely more. Each to their thou.

 

[Pebd99]

What’s the latest date you need delivery by?

Late April/May.

 

[wanton dwarf]

Personally I'd rather have grain in the barn before I sell it....and would value not being exposed to the "forward" risks more than I would value knowing I had the "profit" locked in.

Forward options just set a base price for next years crop. That base price is going to be down on what it could have been if no one had sold. Those using forward selling only benefit in a decreasing market - IF the buyer honours the contract, which they don't have to as they can always reject the crop as substandard with no recourse. But as inflation is generally increasing, there is no reason to selling forward other than fear.