Theres no question speculators give the market fluidity but this notion that we wouldnt be able to buy and sell without them like they are indispensable annoys me. We would just have to sell when there are buyers, develop your own relationships with buyers that suit your profile. We would adapt and proceedWithout speculators the market would seize up
consumers not buying farmers cannot sell
farmers not selling consumers cannot buy
speculators give the system liquidity and take on the risk
And the price will never come down if they are happy to buy it at these pricesDefinitely a two tier market for the fertiliser - the arable chaps can possibly afford the current prices if things stay as they are or improve slightly.
Livestock farmers are in a very different position, massive price rises are necessary for the beef, lamb and hay market if they are to justify buying more than a small proportion of their usual N requirement.
I got the last of one merchants allocation at that price yesterday. Only had half a load left.Managed to get a load of Yara 33.5 for £640 on Friday. I told the mechant if new prices were coming out to book a load as I am needing it now . Been holding off from buying it at 790 to 750 hoping it would drop. I think they only released a few loads at that price. Still need for this season and should of bought more but more about managing finances!