Fertiliser Price Tracker

[Chae1]

What's the end point with this situation?

A good question.

So many different scenarios.

We might get nuked and none of us here to worry about fert prices

Ukraine might get defeated next week.

Can't see economic sanctions being dropped whatever happens

Might be a revolution in Russia or military coup and Putin overthrown. That's probably best case scenario.

War might drag on for months/years.

Government might intervene and subsidise gas prices leading to cheaper fert.

Just a few thoughts. Many more possibilities I'm sure.

 

[bankrupt]

yield reduction is .4 tonnes per ha for n 50 kg below optimum yield

Yara's calculations are all based on getting 6.6t/ha with zero N.

I doubt that's very realistic for many - it's certainly not, here.

 

[frederick]

i am moving feed wheat at 217 sold a month ago

current offer is 297 for may movement

if feed merchants are pulling deals made before the war in ukraine they should have fixed their buying prices when they made the sales then they were obviously gambling on grain prices falling
they have not got their risk management sorted
the last 50 years the grain merchants that had poor risk management have gone bust

This is all correct and straightforward for wheat grown and sourced in the UK.

However I am now trying to ascertain where some of my ingredients like rape are going to be sourced from. If the rape or fetiliser was due to come from Ukraine and the boat simply isnt going to get filled up then unfortunately force majeure is a completely justifiable outcome.

 

[crazy_bull]

This is all correct and straightforward for wheat grown and sourced in the UK.

However I am now trying to ascertain where some of my ingredients like rape are going to be sourced from. If the rape or fetiliser was due to come from Ukraine and the boat simply isnt going to get filled up then unfortunately force majeure is a completely justifiable outcome.

There is still OsR and fertiliser available from other sources, just at higher values, therefore it can be replaced, and contracts delivered.
C B

 

[Bossfarmer]

Quoted liquid 27N 5S £770 couple days ago.

its barely gone up since i bought mine then, wats all the fuss about

 

[Steevo]

Yara's calculations are all based on getting 6.6t/ha with zero N.

View attachment 1022242

I doubt that's very realistic for many - it's certainly not, here.

I wish I could get 8t/ha with 50kgN/ha or 9t/ha with 100kgN/ha.

 

[teslacoils]

slight tangent
but at a friends last night who does fabrication work
he bought and paid for 20 ton steel last week supplier ringing him to ask if he wants it and supplier would give him £6000 profit on it not to deliver
all this will either break or make a lot very profitable

I've transatlantic flights bought before COVID. Non transferable, but I did wonder if, before we fly in 2024 if Mr Branson will be paying us to cancel them.

 

[poppy]

Would it surprise you

Miming ham is nothing to do with CF, that’s an import point for Yara, ADM, Origin etc

 

[adda]

Rep told me today Yara n34 at closing book on Friday £935 ton artic load only

 

[bankrupt]

I wish I could get 8t/ha with 50kgN/ha or 9t/ha with 100kgN/ha.

Always been the case that trials conducted by the likes of ICI, Fisons, Yara, HGCA, NIAB, AHDB, etc. tended to gravitate to the best land.

Fair enough when pushing the limits of technology at the time and giving all of us rather more slovenly yokels something to aspire to.

But now the economics of production's suddenly all gone tits up and optimization's turned on its head they may not have exactly all the right data to help us all out..

 

[bankrupt]

I have 11 loads of wheat booked out in the next ten days sold quite a bit below spot price but will do nothing but honour my contracts.

Similar, here.

Next week's loads are all £226 but last week loaded one at £160 sold forward in August 2020 when spot was £115.

 

[teslacoils]

Similar, here.

Next week's loads are all £226 but last week loaded one at £160 sold forward in August 2020 when spot was £115.

The concern at these prices is that you get paid for what is collected.

All my grain is ex store, and there's £150/t spread between highest and lowest prices.

 

[David.]

Similar, here.

Next week's loads are all £226 but last week loaded one at £160 sold forward in August 2020 when spot was £115.

Did you say at the time "If that is my lowest sale, I will be happy".......

 

[crazy_bull]

Miming ham is nothing to do with CF, that’s an import point for Yara, ADM, Origin etc

Sssshhhh don’t ruin a good conspiracy theory! FFS

 

[Northern territory]

Sssshhhh don’t ruin a good conspiracy theory! FFS

I got it wrong it was actually billingham, teesport.

 

[yellow belly]

Yara's calculations are all based on getting 6.6t/ha with zero N.

View attachment 1022242

I doubt that's very realistic for many - it's certainly not, here.

stats and their presentation

if the scale was a true presentation it would start at 0 yield and would look very flat

it would also be a better graph based on the profit margin of the crop after all cost especially post combineing costs

there have been hundreds of nitrogen trials over the years they need representing with nitrogen at £ 3 a kg and £4 a kg of n and £ 0.25 0.3 and .35 per kg of wheat same for barley

not the historic of £0.3 or £ 0.5 per kg of n and £0.1 £0.15 or £0.2 fr whea or barley

 

[bankrupt]

Did you say at the time "If that is my lowest sale, I will be happy".......

There used to be a joke theory, promoted by futures and options brokers, called "locking in a profit".

Even so, the way things are, £160 2 years ahead for Jan 22 might still leave more than will £215 now for Jan 24.

 

[David.]

Trouble is, they weren't joking.
Much the same as the mustard trousered parasites, who won't be joking when this autumn they will be asserting that most grain this year has been sold for nearly £300, and that you can sell the next two harvests for approaching £250.

 

[Chrisw]

Trouble is, they weren't joking.
Much the same as the mustard trousered parasites, who won't be joking when this autumn they will be asserting that most grain this year has been sold for nearly £300, and that you can sell the next two harvests for approaching £250.

And we go back and tell them all red diesel costs £1.50/L and fert is £1,300/t. I'm pretty sure there isnt much ground for justification of an increase in rent, especially when high machinery and part prices are included

 

[Adeptandy]

And we go back and tell them all red diesel costs £1.50/L and fert is £1,300/t. I'm pretty sure there isnt much ground for justification of an increase in rent, especially when high machinery and part prices are included

They’ll just say that’s irrelevant, we’ve been letting it for £100/acre more than your paying to Mr x down the road.