Future prof power supply needs for EV Charging?

[PhilSL]

no mains gas sadly

Dependent on what the unit price per kW for power and heating costs for the units are, consumption profile, exc EV chargers and inc EV chargers, an LPG fuelled CHP may be an option?

 

[Doing it for the kids]

Dependent on what the unit price per kW for power and heating costs for the units are, consumption profile, exc EV chargers and inc EV chargers, an LPG fuelled CHP may be an option?

agreed but as the units are being let as shells it will be down to them, if indeed they need much heating

 

[PhilSL]

The properties are mostly private and scattered over 4 areas. Nearest gas is 4 miles away though I do have a 3 foot main to Ireland within 300m. Long drill and bingo, free gas.

I forgot that a new 132kV line is being upgraded and it is only 200m away. Need a big transformer

agreed but as the units are being let as shells it will be down to them, if indeed they need much heating

If you could find a use for the heat elsewhere, an LPG fuelled CHP unit could power the EV Chargers and sell the power to the units?

 

[renewablejohn]

Really?

In the wet harvest of 1987 the 2000 ton grain store i worked in was burning 3000 litres of diesel per week drying grain. Could a renewable system deliver that sort of energy demand in a wet overcast summer? Time was critical as the grain would set solid in the bins if not dried down from 24% to 18% moisture on arrival.

Very easily. Tubes still work in overcast conditions

 

[renewablejohn]

The spare capacity is not there at peak times and when two or more generators are stopped for maintenance and/or repair. At which time it is usually France that keeps us going. There are plenty of recent warnings about us being under capacity as some of the nuclear plants close and some have been kept on-line for years longer than their design life specifically because they cannot afford to lose their generating capacity.
You appear to be just about a lone voice that claims we have plenty of capacity. Presumably you are counting the wind turbines. I've got news for you on that front though…. when their capacity is needed most, which is during a very cold icy spell after widespread snow, we commonly get a prolonged period where no discernible wind blows over the vast majority of the UK. That is why the total capacity needed has to be able to be generated by more reliable means with wind only supplying excess capacity that can be switched to an alternative when circumstances dictate.

Also you address none of the local issues such as most premises in the UK being on single phase and limited even on three phase where the recharging of a couple of electric vehicles will take all of the kW capacity to those premises, allowing none for running other plant and equipment or heating etc.

Dont you actually read the comment I made. The spare capacity even at peak time yesterday was 12GW assuming a maximum gas output of 25GW even with no wind at all gas is capable of covering that level of demand. Your comments are really a decade out of date when demand was higher and before the dash for gas.

Another 1.7GW CCGT has just been mothballed until winter 2021. So much for your shortage of capacity.

 

[Cowabunga]

Dont you actually read the comment I made. The spare capacity even at peak time yesterday was 12GW assuming a maximum gas output of 25GW even with no wind at all gas is capable of covering that level of demand. Your comments are really a decade out of date when demand was higher and before the dash for gas.

Another 1.7GW CCGT has just been mothballed until winter 2021. So much for your shortage of capacity.

I read it but do not take what you say as gospel.
As far as I can see we currently have around 50GW peak demand with peak capacity of 70GW, which seems a fair amount until you realise that between 1990 and 2000, consumption rose by over 20% with no massive change in infrastructure that I can see. In fact if we were to resume consuming energy at year 2000 levels we would meet or exceed generating capacity. Of course over the next ten years there is going to be a careful balance between supply and demand so as not to electrify too much transport, heating and industry so as not to push demand over supply, no matter what you claim. Partly it will self moderate because as I mentioned several times previously, local supply infrastructure cannot possibly cope without huge investment by the Grid, distribution companies, and consumers in uprating their systems. I would need a mile of three phase supply line, a new transformer and wiring and meters etc at a cost even today of well in excess of £100,000 if I were to just add two electric cars charging reasonably quickly to existing consumers. That is even if I could persuade Western Power to do the job at any cost, which is doubtful.

 

[renewablejohn]

I read it but do not take what you say as gospel.
As far as I can see we currently have around 50GW peak demand with peak capacity of 70GW, which seems a fair amount until you realise that between 1990 and 2000, consumption rose by over 20% with no massive change in infrastructure that I can see. In fact if we were to resume consuming energy at year 2000 levels we would meet or exceed generating capacity. Of course over the next ten years there is going to be a careful balance between supply and demand so as not to electrify too much transport, heating and industry so as not to push demand over supply, no matter what you claim. Partly it will self moderate because as I mentioned several times previously, local supply infrastructure cannot possibly cope without huge investment by the Grid, distribution companies, and consumers in uprating their systems. I would need a mile of three phase supply line, a new transformer and wiring and meters etc at a cost even today of well in excess of £100,000 if I were to just add two electric cars charging reasonably quickly to existing consumers. That is even if I could persuade Western Power to do the job at any cost, which is doubtful.

Dont expect people to take stuff as gospel but at least look up the reference I gave before making up rubbish.

GB Fuel type power generation production

GridWatch | Live statistic of UK National Electricity grid by type of generation | Solar PV power Generation | Coal Stations output in Gigawatts | Wind Output Gigawatts | Nuclear energy output |Biomass power generation Output

gridwatch.co.uk

As can clearly be seen from gridwatch peak demand for both this year and last year only just crept into the 40GW mark. As for 2000 levels that heavy industry has long gone never to return. Why would any rational person spend 100k on electric infrastructure for 2 cars when the equivalent fuel cell cars require no infrastructure.

 

[Doing it for the kids]

Dont expect people to take stuff as gospel but at least look up the reference I gave before making up rubbish.

GB Fuel type power generation production

GridWatch | Live statistic of UK National Electricity grid by type of generation | Solar PV power Generation | Coal Stations output in Gigawatts | Wind Output Gigawatts | Nuclear energy output |Biomass power generation Output

gridwatch.co.uk

As can clearly be seen from gridwatch peak demand for both this year and last year only just crept into the 40GW mark. As for 2000 levels that heavy industry has long gone never to return. Why would any rational person spend 100k on electric infrastructure for 2 cars when the equivalent fuel cell cars require no infrastructure.

john I know you have an understanding of this topic Better than most But surely you can’t disagree with the infrastructure fall out we are about to see?

the push to shut down coal is all well and good and whilst we may have sufficient capacity to produce the power we need, much of the back up gas as you say are so inefficient for start stop.

how do you see the ticking time bomb being solved as more and more EV’s come on line? How will power get to these charge points? Charing at work is all well and good if you do a 9-5 But not everyone does This now.

 

[Cowabunga]

Dont expect people to take stuff as gospel but at least look up the reference I gave before making up rubbish.

GB Fuel type power generation production

GridWatch | Live statistic of UK National Electricity grid by type of generation | Solar PV power Generation | Coal Stations output in Gigawatts | Wind Output Gigawatts | Nuclear energy output |Biomass power generation Output

gridwatch.co.uk

As can clearly be seen from gridwatch peak demand for both this year and last year only just crept into the 40GW mark. As for 2000 levels that heavy industry has long gone never to return. Why would any rational person spend 100k on electric infrastructure for 2 cars when the equivalent fuel cell cars require no infrastructure.

I got my figures and estimates from here...

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/728374/UK_Energy_in_Brief_2018.pdf

Fuel cell cars don't really exist or certainly aren't generally available yet and as far as I can tell fuel production for them has a very high energy demand and inefficiency. But that is completely deflecting the point that the mass electrification being touted from nearly all directions will not be possible due to both supply and local infrastructure issues as I illustrated.

 

[renewablejohn]

john I know you have an understanding of this topic Better than most But surely you can’t disagree with the infrastructure fall out we are about to see?

the push to shut down coal is all well and good and whilst we may have sufficient capacity to produce the power we need, much of the back up gas as you say are so inefficient for start stop.

how do you see the ticking time bomb being solved as more and more EV’s come on line? How will power get to these charge points? Charing at work is all well and good if you do a 9-5 But not everyone does This now.

Its because of the inefficient start stop of CCGT that we already have the solution. Its a very old solution used for example at Berlin power station for decades very successfully using steam accumulators. With a modern twist the accumulators could also store the excess energy from wind reducing the volume of gas used.

 

[renewablejohn]

I got my figures and estimates from here...

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/728374/UK_Energy_in_Brief_2018.pdf

Fuel cell cars don't really exist or certainly aren't generally available yet and as far as I can tell fuel production for them has a very high energy demand and inefficiency. But that is completely deflecting the point that the mass electrification being touted from nearly all directions will not be possible due to both supply and local infrastructure issues as I illustrated.

So totally out of date figures when you consider the growth in wind, the reduction in coal and the reduction in demand.

 

[br jones]

Dont worry about UK service stations they already have it well in hand just look to who has bought ASDA.

Not yet ,as the 6 billion in loans habnt been agreed

 

[Cowabunga]

So totally out of date figures when you consider the growth in wind, the reduction in coal and the reduction in demand.

The growth in wind is all fine as long as the wind blows. It can never be relied on without duplicating the capacity with more reliable generating capacity. It's literally a matter of life and death.
The reduction of coal has decreased this capacity.
So the reduction in demand over the last two years of recession is relevant but the potential massive increase in future demand from electrification as a substitute for fossil fuels is discounted as irrelevant by you. Hmm!

 

[renewablejohn]

The growth in wind is all fine as long as the wind blows. It can never be relied on without duplicating the capacity with more reliable generating capacity. It's literally a matter of life and death.
The reduction of coal has decreased this capacity.
So the reduction in demand over the last two years of recession is relevant but the potential massive increase in future demand from electrification as a substitute for fossil fuels is discounted as irrelevant by you. Hmm!

Of course its totally irrelevant at the moment. The demand your talking about is overnight charging of vehicles. As referred to the example above CCGT gas generation for that period had to be curtailed back from 15GW to 3GW so until that 12GW of spare capacity is used on overnight charging we do not have a problem. Even then there is not a problem as new gas plant is still being installed resulting in more of the old plant being mothballed for this doomsday event of no wind throughout europe which is scheduled to last for a week but has never happened before.

 

[Cowabunga]

Of course its totally irrelevant at the moment. The demand your talking about is overnight charging of vehicles. As referred to the example above CCGT gas generation for that period had to be curtailed back from 15GW to 3GW so until that 12GW of spare capacity is used on overnight charging we do not have a problem. Even then there is not a problem as new gas plant is still being installed resulting in more of the old plant being mothballed for this doomsday event of no wind throughout europe which is scheduled to last for a week but has never happened before.

It happens commonly after heavy snowstorms. You may be too young to remember such events, that can last for weeks, but they happen and it is a matter of life and death. It cannot be allowed to happen and I'm glad that you are not the one in charge of our energy security.

 

[TheTallGuy]

Aside from whether or not we have sufficient generating capacity, there is a fundamental issue in that the supply network simply isn't up to the job of delivering the energy to sufficient charging points in the right places & then there is the issue that not everyone has their own dedicated parking spaces at home. There are streets in our towns and cities where cars park half on the pavement both sides of the road - put charging points along these streets & the cars will have to be parked in the road, but the roads aren't wide enough to accommodate all the cars - hence why they are parked on the pavements!

Properties in streets like these often have looped supplies that aren't suitable for chargers & the passing mains are running near to capacity.

Going back to the generation capacity - there's ~38.4 million registered vehicles made up of: 31.6 million cars, 4 million LGVs & ~0.5 million HGVs, the rest being motorcycles, busses, tractors, plant, etc. Let's assume that 1/4 of cars require charging at any one time - so 7.9 million, let's assume that they are all on 7kW chargers, that gives a demand of 55.3GW - just for cars! Even going down to one in ten cars charging at a time - that's still ~22GW! Okay so we can probably cope at that level, but then way about all the other vehicles? What about increasing electrification of the railways?

 

[Y Fan Wen]

I know this has its own thread going...

Energy Report — RethinkX

We are on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most profound disruption of the energy sector in over a century.

www.rethinkx.com

 

[TrickyT]

I work in the gas industry. We are still renewing old legacy pipes to reduce our environmental impact from gas escapes. There is enough work to see me into retirement.

With the Governments proposal to ban gas heating in homes from 2025 (not gas hobs) not 100% sure how heating will be supplied. They talk about ground source heating etc, but not sure.

This has been discussed in out industry and we believe this will put more strain on the existing electric infrastructure.

The biggest issue with using electricity, unlike gas, is that there is no current storage for it. It is down to supply and demand.

We are doing lots of connections for small gas fired power stations to ensure that demand can be met by the electric companies as they face huge fines if there is a network outage due to not being able to supply the demand.

Like the electric companies, when we renew a pipe, we have to be cost effective for the end user, so we replace it with the smallest size possible to maintain the existing supply.

It would make sense to over engineer the pipes (and cables) that are laid to anticipate future growth, but we are not permitted to do this by OFGEM.

When we talk about electric vehicles and charging, as mentioned, you need to have the right property and supply to be able to charge them. As mentioned if you live in a flat or have on street parking, then what chance do you have.

Electric vehicles are not cheap. My parents have an old car, there is no chance that they are going to spend £30k or more on a new electric vehicle. It would never be cost effective for them.

As for company vehicles, we are being forced to change to electric or hybrids. Many have already changed. They are loving the tax benefits from having one. But I know several of them who have never plugged one in to be charged since they have had it. So basically running around in a 2.5 L petrol.

I will have to make that change in 2021, but do not have the ability to charge one. I can also do up to 200 miles (or more) a day, to the normal range of the battery is 40-50 miles, so I will be running on petrol.

Yes, there are vehicles like the Tesla that have the range, but I cannot charge one and we don't have them in our 'budget' to pick them from.

Trevor

 

[renewablejohn]

It happens commonly after heavy snowstorms. You may be too young to remember such events, that can last for weeks, but they happen and it is a matter of life and death. It cannot be allowed to happen and I'm glad that you are not the one in charge of our energy security.

Oh but I do remember the last one being 1963 where the village was cut off for 3 weeks. But since then we have global warming dont you keep up with the news. Warmest wettest winters all in the last two decades.

 

[Cowabunga]

Aside from whether or not we have sufficient generating capacity, there is a fundamental issue in that the supply network simply isn't up to the job of delivering the energy to sufficient charging points in the right places & then there is the issue that not everyone has their own dedicated parking spaces at home. There are streets in our towns and cities where cars park half on the pavement both sides of the road - put charging points along these streets & the cars will have to be parked in the road, but the roads aren't wide enough to accommodate all the cars - hence why they are parked on the pavements!

Properties in streets like these often have looped supplies that aren't suitable for chargers & the passing mains are running near to capacity.

Going back to the generation capacity - there's ~38.4 million registered vehicles made up of: 31.6 million cars, 4 million LGVs & ~0.5 million HGVs, the rest being motorcycles, busses, tractors, plant, etc. Let's assume that 1/4 of cars require charging at any one time - so 7.9 million, let's assume that they are all on 7kW chargers, that gives a demand of 55.3GW - just for cars! Even going down to one in ten cars charging at a time - that's still ~22GW! Okay so we can probably cope at that level, but then way about all the other vehicles? What about increasing electrification of the railways?

I agree and that is before the planned change to domestic and industrial heating away from fossil fuel to electricity, which is a whole bigger chunk of capacity again.
The infrastructure element of local delivery systems and provision is likely to be the biggest moderating factor in the UK growth of electric cars, which are the future. Tesla already has exceeded the million mile battery, with some estimates of total cycles taking his new batteries to 3 million mile lifetime. These are here NOW and will be selling locally next year. The German model Y will have his new larger cells from the get-go which will probably enable it to have a range of over 400 miles and possibly up to 500. With that kind of vehicle, with that kind of performance and range, people will be queuing round the block to get their hands on Tesla cars. These new battery cells are reportedly up to 50% higher capacity for 30% the price of current batteries from LG and Panasonic and have a re-use capability after the rest of the car is scrapped.
But how do we provide the charging capability at people's homes and workplaces? As I explained, in my yard at least I have the room to charge not one, but several cars nightly, but my electricity supply is inadequate to charge several, let alone change the house heating to electric and run existing plant and machinery at the same time.

Some people seem to have their heads in the sand about this and the fundamental problems that will arise as electric vehicles become more mainstream and the deadline for phasing out passenger vehicle IC engines looms ever nearer.
There needs to be massive investment at every level.