getting out of sheep

[gone up the hill]

Because the opportunity cost of growing cereals or what ever in marginal situations will be lower and that will in turn potentially lower your fixed and feed costs but as an owner occupier you perhaps would understand what opportunity cost is !

Growing grain is far from a cheap job and depending on yield you will be circa £100t + for the most efficient farmer,if on marginal land with poor yields then it could easily be £150t.

Fert/ Fuel/ machinery/ seed/ chemical etc costs will NOT drop post subs ( if that happened ).

Given your comments about the exchange rate and its effects on prices and now this then no offence intended but you don't seem to have a good understanding of these matters.

 

[digger64]

Gravailiable in is far from a cheap job and depending on yield you will be circa £100t + for the most efficient farmer,if on marginal land with poor yields then it could easily be £150t.

Fert/ Fuel/ machinery/ seed/ chemical etc costs will NOT drop post subs ( if that happened ).

Given your comments about the exchange rate and its effects on prices and now this then no offence intended but you don't seem to have a good understanding of these matters.

Which is why if sub was removed you would have more land availible to produce lower cost beef at a more competitive level to compete with imports , what would you do keep growing cereals below break even yields ,fallow or chance your luck on some cows (or take a lower rent with someone else's cows) ?

 

[Kiwi Pete]

i understand what you are trying to say but its not as straightforward to do that over here, if most of you were farming the small farms over here with no sub you would soon realise that it simply doesnt add up

Cutting your variable costs doesn't add up?
Is that just a central Scotland phenomenon..
That's a strange comment, as it seems the mid-size farmers are doing most of the wailing while the smaller more efficient farmers couldn't give a toss if they go.
And that seems tightly correlated to variable costs from what I read.

I guess my point is, you would either be brave or aiming to run at a loss to use conventional cereal production methods (plough, full cultivation, belt and braces fert and chem programme) in NZ or Aus no matter how grand you think the weather is.

It doesn't add up here either, unless you get a better than average growing season, and better than average prices. Say one year in 4 you would profit. 1 year you'd break even, 2 years at a loss.
That doesn't take into account the gear you break, the new coulters bearings and points on the plough, tyre wear, replacement/depreciating gear, or the extra seat time.
Most cereal farms - the serious ones who combine it, not 1 paddock for wholecrop- will give it a graze, a discing maybe, and drill it.
Then you aren't so reliant on the price you are given or the weather being perfect at harvest all for maybe the loss of a ton of grain across a paddock.
These are the sort of things that drive profit - forget the message of the '47 ag act, forget trying to feed the world, you can't supply enough to feed your own country.
Focus solely on making constant system tweaks that drive profit.
Like we do.

I see GUTH has beaten me to it - input costs will not be dropping while there is such steady demand, the only way to stay ahead of it is to develop methods NOW that will let you wean yourself off these inputs.
Livestock farms will need to use less creep, cheaper bedding materials, more outwintering, different genetics in some cases... this takes time to achieve.

Cereal farming will need to adopt lower input systems - not look at them and say "I can't" - can't is close to a swearword in my house. switching to less tillage takes time. It's not a matter of sell the plough and expect healthy soil to follow - min till/zero till is only a fraction of that equation.
You have to look after your soils.

"Belt and braces" often are just as good as a piece of bale string for holding up your pants. It will last you long enough for things to stabilise.

 

[unlacedgecko]

Cereal farming will need to adopt lower input systems - not look at them and say "I can't" - can't is close to a swearword in my house.

"Can't means won't and won't mean jail"

 

[Kiwi Pete]

Can't means "I don't know how to, yet!"

 

[hendrebc]

Cutting your variable costs doesn't add up?
Is that just a central Scotland phenomenon..
That's a strange comment, as it seems the mid-size farmers are doing most of the wailing while the smaller more efficient farmers couldn't give a toss if they go.
And that seems tightly correlated to variable costs from what I read.

I guess my point is, you would either be brave or aiming to run at a loss to use conventional cereal production methods (plough, full cultivation, belt and braces fert and chem programme) in NZ or Aus no matter how grand you think the weather is.

It doesn't add up here either, unless you get a better than average growing season, and better than average prices. Say one year in 4 you would profit. 1 year you'd break even, 2 years at a loss.
That doesn't take into account the gear you break, the new coulters bearings and points on the plough, tyre wear, replacement/depreciating gear, or the extra seat time.
Most cereal farms - the serious ones who combine it, not 1 paddock for wholecrop- will give it a graze, a discing maybe, and drill it.
Then you aren't so reliant on the price you are given or the weather being perfect at harvest all for maybe the loss of a ton of grain across a paddock.
These are the sort of things that drive profit - forget the message of the '47 ag act, forget trying to feed the world, you can't supply enough to feed your own country.
Focus solely on making constant system tweaks that drive profit.
Like we do.

I see GUTH has beaten me to it - input costs will not be dropping while there is such steady demand, the only way to stay ahead of it is to develop methods NOW that will let you wean yourself off these inputs.
Livestock farms will need to use less creep, cheaper bedding materials, more outwintering, different genetics in some cases... this takes time to achieve.

Cereal farming will need to adopt lower input systems - not look at them and say "I can't" - can't is close to a swearword in my house. switching to less tillage takes time. It's not a matter of sell the plough and expect healthy soil to follow - min till/zero till is only a fraction of that equation.
You have to look after your soils.

"Belt and braces" often are just as good as a piece of bale string for holding up your pants. It will last you long enough for things to stabilise.

Good post @Kiwi Pete

 

[Kiwi Pete]

Good post @Kiwi Pete

That wasn't only my words..
I don't want to go on yet another tangent.. this is meant to be a sheep thread..

But to anyone - if you want to succeed with growing stuff on soil, you have to focus on your soil - (it isn't "land" or "dirt") - it is the substance of life.
(Fudgeing hippy)
Your soil dictates how well you profit from trying to farm on it - it is so simple

Look to the regenerative ag style of farming - plenty if not all the really profitable US and Aussie cropping farms are using these methods. It works anywhere, on any soil... you have resilience from flooding, and dry summers..
Gabe Brown has good YouTube videos, see what his costs are relative to yields if you don't think it can be done without ploughs and a dozen trips on tramlines.
It's no secret but you'd think it was
How to grow cheaper stuff

 

[hendrebc]

That wasn't only my words..
I don't want to go on yet another tangent.. this is meant to be a sheep thread..

But to anyone - if you want to succeed with growing stuff on soil, you have to focus on your soil - (it isn't "land" or "dirt") - it is the substance of life.
(Fudgeing hippy)
Your soil dictates how well you profit from trying to farm on it - it is so simple

Look to the regenerative ag style of farming - plenty if not all the really profitable US and Aussie cropping farms are using these methods. It works anywhere, on any soil... you have resilience from flooding, and dry summers..
Gabe Brown has good YouTube videos, see what his costs are relative to yields if you don't think it can be done without ploughs and a dozen trips on tramlines.
It's no secret but you'd think it was
How to grow cheaper stuff

Theres a FB group you would like in this subject. I find it very inreresting its calles reGenerative grazing group.

 

[Kiwi Pete]

It's not my place to tell farmers how to run their farms.
But so many farmers are doing silly things to their soils and moaning about how much it costs to run a farm these days.. it's everyone's fault but their own, of course.

If you ran any other business and didn't learn and understand your principle asset to the best of your ability - would you still expect a hand from the tax vault?
Soils need long periods of being left alone to reach their potential - most of the old world has been buggered by mankind trying to improve it - and now the costs are against farming.
I truly believe that this is the missing "KPI" from the animal board's reports.
That is the main driver - getting your soils working for you instead of using it as a sandpit.
I think it will become the only way to farm without help in the future, across the globe.

 

[Bossfarmer]

Because the opportunity cost of growing cereals or what ever in marginal situations will be lower and that will in turn potentially lower your fixed and feed costs but as an owner occupier you perhaps would understand what opportunity cost is !

thats just on paper what about reality ie cashflow? cash is king

 

[Bossfarmer]

Would it upset your gamekeeper ?

i have no hill to outwinter on and i wouldnt want to anyway as i have my own straw and need the dung, cattle outside on kale really do suffer in a harsh scottish winter

 

[Bossfarmer]

I haven't reinvented or invented anything. Just a short video I thought you might find useful as you were looking to increase cattle.numbers without building more sheds.

its a nice idea but wont work as well here

 

[Bossfarmer]

Why? Curious as im thinking of trying to kep mine out so anyones opinion is gratefully recieved

what part of the country are you in? this will make a big difference

 

[Bossfarmer]

Which is why if sub was removed you would have more land availible to produce lower cost beef at a more competitive level to compete with imports , what would you do keep growing cereals below break even yields ,fallow or chance your luck on some cows (or take a lower rent with someone else's cows) ?

how would there be more land most will be trying to up production to compensate for loss of subs? how would if be cheaper beef production its not suitable for feedlot systems here

 

[Bossfarmer]

Cutting your variable costs doesn't add up?
Is that just a central Scotland phenomenon..
That's a strange comment, as it seems the mid-size farmers are doing most of the wailing while the smaller more efficient farmers couldn't give a toss if they go.
And that seems tightly correlated to variable costs from what I read.

I guess my point is, you would either be brave or aiming to run at a loss to use conventional cereal production methods (plough, full cultivation, belt and braces fert and chem programme) in NZ or Aus no matter how grand you think the weather is.

It doesn't add up here either, unless you get a better than average growing season, and better than average prices. Say one year in 4 you would profit. 1 year you'd break even, 2 years at a loss.
That doesn't take into account the gear you break, the new coulters bearings and points on the plough, tyre wear, replacement/depreciating gear, or the extra seat time.
Most cereal farms - the serious ones who combine it, not 1 paddock for wholecrop- will give it a graze, a discing maybe, and drill it.
Then you aren't so reliant on the price you are given or the weather being perfect at harvest all for maybe the loss of a ton of grain across a paddock.
These are the sort of things that drive profit - forget the message of the '47 ag act, forget trying to feed the world, you can't supply enough to feed your own country.
Focus solely on making constant system tweaks that drive profit.
Like we do.

I see GUTH has beaten me to it - input costs will not be dropping while there is such steady demand, the only way to stay ahead of it is to develop methods NOW that will let you wean yourself off these inputs.
Livestock farms will need to use less creep, cheaper bedding materials, more outwintering, different genetics in some cases... this takes time to achieve.

Cereal farming will need to adopt lower input systems - not look at them and say "I can't" - can't is close to a swearword in my house. switching to less tillage takes time. It's not a matter of sell the plough and expect healthy soil to follow - min till/zero till is only a fraction of that equation.
You have to look after your soils.

"Belt and braces" often are just as good as a piece of bale string for holding up your pants. It will last you long enough for things to stabilise.

if variable costs were easy to cut they would be cut already, trust me we are as efficient as can be any less fert/spray etc will cost more in loss of yield theres no shortcuts, no till is also lower yielding with weed issues a lot of spraying and still requires a plough every few years unless your laying off staff/massive kit who were previously ploughing it does not stack up ploughing is more economical many have tried this already trust me and wasted money in the process!

 

[Kiwi Pete]

Fair enough.
I wish you luck

 

[digger64]

thats just on paper what about reality ie cashflow? cash is king

Doing less usually means more cash in the shortterm

 

[digger64]

i have no hill to outwinter on and i wouldnt want to anyway as i have my own straw and need the dung, cattle outside on kale really do suffer in a harsh scottish winter

Cows on kale still sh!t and pee ! But they dont need cleaning out !

 

[Bossfarmer]

Cows on kale still sh!t and pee ! But they dont need cleaning out !

just wreck ur fields in wet weather

 

[digger64]

if variable costs were easy to cut they would be cut already, trust me we are as efficient as can be any less fert/spray etc will cost more in loss of yield theres no shortcuts, no till is also lower yielding with weed issues a lot of spraying and still requires a plough every few years unless your laying off staff/massive kit who were previously ploughing it does not stack up ploughing is more economical many have tried this already trust me and wasted money in the process!

Just stay as you are then