Glad I sold my wheat

[Andrew K]

Same here I sold about 70% of my predicted cereal output for harvest 19 between August and November 18. For a while I thought I had messed up, pleased now though. Almost as pleased as finding 15mm of rain in the gauge this morning.

Was that via Camgrain Andrew?

 

[Brisel]

Soylent green.

I had to Google that! Like Sweeny Todd's pies...

 

[B'o'B]

Not selling a grain

Crops look excellent due to sheer amount of N and air in soil

However it only takes one hot week and huge swaths of uk cereals could wilt IMO

Drains running mean little when you stick a digger in the ground and find dust at 3ft below a moist surface along with a highway of cracks for that water to hit the backfill

BASF have put a gizmo in one of my fields that estimates the moisture balance for the crop. It’s saying the crop used 5.5mm Sunday and 6mm on Monday. So thats about half of the 25mm rain we had last week used up in 2 days, today was hotter and windier and tomorrow forecast is hot but less windy so that’ll be it all used up. Not that I’m complaining the crops look tonnes better for it, but it doesn’t go far.

 

[Banana Bar]

Was that via Camgrain Andrew?

Some, GP3, Siskin and GP4 are all stored on farm and either sold or placed in to merchant pools. Camgrain take most of my GP1, malting barley and oats.

 

[shakerator]

BASF have put a gizmo in one of my fields that estimates the moisture balance for the crop. It’s saying the crop used 5.5mm Sunday and 6mm on Monday. So thats about half of the 25mm rain we had last week used up in 2 days, today was hotter and windier and tomorrow forecast is hot but less windy so that’ll be it all used up. Not that I’m complaining the crops look tonnes better for it, but it doesn’t go far.

Hydroponics produces the best yields by maximising oxygen around root balls.. and fields do look like greenhouse crops at the moment .....however the big caveat is control is retained over water ! Like you say supply and demand are just being kept in balance, but June will need 6mm/day average and that is a very wet month ...

 

[lloyd]

Several USA states suffering extreme wet conditions
and failing to plant .
A pound that looks like falling further against the euro .
This thread will soon be
Glad I didn't sell my wheat forward!

 

[super4]

Several USA states suffering extreme wet conditions
and failing to plant .
A pound that looks like falling further against the euro .
This thread will soon be
Glad I didn't sell my wheat forward!

It's very dry here. If the forecast is correct this will not be corrected any time soon.
I have spent the last 6mths quite chuffed with my forward sales. I expect to spend the next 6 mths thinking what the ..ck have I done.

 

[Banana Bar]

It's very dry here. If the forecast is correct this will not be corrected any time soon.
I have spent the last 6mths quite chuffed with my forward sales. I expect to spend the next 6 mths thinking what the ..ck have I done.

Same here but I could buy those contracts out if I wanted to now and clear £25 - £30/t. If I see big market lifts I may well do this.

 

[Surgery]

How things can change since this thread got started , a month is a very long time.

 

[super4]

Same here but I could buy those contracts out if I wanted to now and clear £25 - £30/t. If I see big market lifts I may well do this.

My thinking aswell. Not sure how long we will have until the markets move.

 

[SilliamWhale]

Will we see wheat at £180+ in 2019?

Not sure. I would say it does appear there is definitely a bottom in the market now at least which is a relief.

 

[lloyd]

My thinking aswell. Not sure how long we will have until the markets move.

It's already moving
Paris up

 

[JCfarmer]

It's already moving
Paris up

By much?

 

[lloyd]

By much?

MILLING WHEAT UP 3 Euro Sep

 

[7610 super q]

And if we do get a " proper " drought ", spring crops may be worth more as wholecrop in livestock areas. By selling grain forward you lose that option.

 

[Brisel]

And if we do get a " proper " drought ", spring crops may be worth more as wholecrop in livestock areas. By selling grain forward you lose that option.

It depends on how you've done it. If you've sold physical grain forwards, talk to the merchant about cashing it in if the market rises. If you've taken a future position or an option, you don't need to provide physical grain, just close the position or sell the option or let it lapse (if the market has gone against you).

 

[lloyd]

It depends on how you've done it. If you've sold physical grain forwards, talk to the merchant about cashing it in if the market rises. If you've taken a future position or an option, you don't need to provide physical grain, just close the position or sell the option or let it lapse (if the market has gone against you).

Looking back on previous grain market posts you
called the top of the market for 2018 wheat correctly.
What's your insight for harvest 2019?

 

[Brisel]

Looking back on previous grain market posts you
called the top of the market for 2018 wheat correctly.
What's your insight for harvest 2019?

Steady on! That’s flattering but not entirely true. I did say that the July 18 market was a good time to sell a lot but I didn’t do much as I was already 60% sold by then.

I have no idea where prices will go but a bull market now at the right side of £150/t ex would be an opportunity not to be missed. The world stocks-to-use ratio is over 30% (even if the Chinese hold half that and 2/3 of the rotting maize stocks too) which means volatility is far from assured. We’re in a weather market for maize but a good week would finish drilling for a lot of USA.

Paris wheat may be up but osr is down and US grains are stable.

https://cereals.ahdb.org.uk/markets.aspx

 

[SilliamWhale]

Looking back on previous grain market posts you
called the top of the market for 2018 wheat correctly.
What's your insight for harvest 2019?

The sage of Dorset!

 

[Brisel]

Isn’t sage a smelly herb?