Glad I sold my wheat

[fudge]

Isn’t sage a smelly herb?

I wonder if you could market other people’s grain for a small fee? It could prove a very popular service.

 

[Brisel]

I wonder if you could market other people’s grain for a small fee? It could prove a very popular service.

FFS if I was that good I'd be in Farmers Weekly! I really didn't sell it all at the top of the market - I'm 60% sold on new crop and have nothing but drought in the forecast if there's a nice little bull run coming so won't be brave enough to sell any more until it's in the shed and the quality is known. Some is on min/max or upside contracts so there's a floor price set. I also sold my 2018 osr at £300 having put it into a rented store for £10 and could have sold it all at harvest for £325.

Think of a strategy, write it down and stick to it. Aim for a good average in the long term, not to aim for the top then bail out at the bottom. I sell a lot forward because I have budgets to fulfil and the prices exceeded those. Others prefer to stay long and not sell anything until it's in the shed or chuck it in a pool as a benchmark. That's fine too but what would have worked one year is no guarantee of a good result the next. Everyone's attitude to risk is different.

When I do get it right, I'll be buying Necker Island from Richard Branson and playing the markets from the beach. Until then, I'm just another keyboard warrior with an opinion.

 

[SilliamWhale]

Just because it's dry here doesn't mean the world markets are about to catch fire. Wheat has touched 5 year contract lows in America a few times in recent months. The world stocks to use ratio is still near 30%. Volatility doesn't start until it's below 20%. Ensus is on maize so the by product is displacing feed grain on the domestic market. A lot has to change to see much of a rally. Not a year for long holders.

This is what the Sage of Dorset said 3 weeks ago..

 

[lloyd]

FFS if I was that good I'd be in Farmers Weekly! I really didn't sell it all at the top of the market - I'm 60% sold on new crop and have nothing but drought in the forecast if there's a nice little bull run coming so won't be brave enough to sell any more until it's in the shed and the quality is known. Some is on min/max or upside contracts so there's a floor price set. I also sold my 2018 osr at £300 having put it into a rented store for £10 and could have sold it all at harvest for £325.

Think of a strategy, write it down and stick to it. Aim for a good average in the long term, not to aim for the top then bail out at the bottom. I sell a lot forward because I have budgets to fulfil and the prices exceeded those. Others prefer to stay long and not sell anything until it's in the shed or chuck it in a pool as a benchmark. That's fine too but what would have worked one year is no guarantee of a good result the next. Everyone's attitude to risk is different.

When I do get it right, I'll be buying Necker Island from Richard Branson and playing the markets from the beach. Until then, I'm just another keyboard warrior with an opinion.

Far too modest Brisel,far too modest.

Anyway I'm predicting wheat up atleast 3quid for Nov this week.

If this doesnt happen I will leave it to the experts.

 

[lloyd]

Up 5.75

 

[Brisel]

This looks like a weather market. If you look back in history to the last 3 years, we've had a decent rally in July, not June. No major planting going on except Australian wheat & early southern European/Texas harvesting which aren't serious market movers. The big exporters in the N hemisphere will have run stocks down before their own main harvests. That's when you'll see more volatility especially if Western Europe is still dry IMO.

Hopefully I'll be wrong and there will be less expectations on me in future!

Source: David Burroughes @davidburrs on Twitter

https://cereals.ahdb.org.uk/markets

 

[lloyd]

Yep the weather in the states is in the driving seat but
don't forget our currency has the foot on the pedal.

 

[benny6910]

 

[JCfarmer]

I wonder how what has been planted is fairing with all the wet weather?