Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 1 February 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soy lower on forecast of rain in the longer-term maps for Argentina. Corn virtually unchanged, with uncertain Argentine weather supporting. Wheat lower on selling pressure.
• South American weather forecast remains with limited rainfall for Argentina over the next 10 days. Limited rainfall seen in southern Brazil over next 5 days, with a forecast of close to average rainfall over most of Brazil in the 6-10 day period – temperatures look near average.
• Two Brazilian companies plan to build ethanol plants based in the country, using corn as the raw material, to take advantage of ample supply. Brazil’s ethanol industry is almost entirely based on sugar cane.
• Argentina’s corn crop will suffer yield losses to drought this year and the estimated planting area may drop further because dry weather in the northern part of the country has blacked late-season planting according to local reports.
• Russia’s grain export can total 50mln t of grain in 2017-18 marketing year, including 35mln t of wheat, department director of the Ag Ministry reported.
• Ukraine’s corn harvest was seen at 24.1mln t, down from the USDA’s 25mln t, according to the country’s Ag Ministry. Corn exports were seen at 7.7mln t so far this season, down 15% from last year.
• Ukraine’s wheat harvest was seen at 26.1mln t, down from the USDA’s 26.5mln t, according to the country’s State Statistics Office. Wheat exports seen at 12.2mln t so far this season, down 3.8% from last year according to the Ag Ministry.
• The EU Commission has opened an investigation into whether Argentine biodiesel exporters benefit from unfair subsidies, a response to successful legal challenges against previous trade measures.

Last Trade Settlement:
London May ’18 Settle £139.60/t – down £0.40/tonne from previous close
Paris May ’18 Settle €160.50 –down €2.75/t from previous close
CBOT Mar ’18 Corn Settle $3.6150/bushel – unchanged from previous close
CBOT Mar ’18 Wheat Settle $4.5175/bushel – down 5.50 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1445
GBP USD 1.4245
EUR GBP 0.8735
EUR USD 1.2445