Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 10 September 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets close – Soybeans traded up on the day, with a tight trading range. Corn was just higher having traded 4c/bu lower. Wheat traded lower as CFTC confirmed fund long liquidation over the week.
• The ABARES quarterly S&D is reported tomorrow, following a concerning soil moisture report last night, stating “upper layer soil moisture in August18 was well below average to extremely low across large areas of NSW & QLD, eastern Vic, northern WA & NT”, while moisture levels look much better in the west of the country. Eyes will be on “how low can we go” on production numbers for this current planted crop.
• Most eyes will be on USDA monthly S&D report on 12/9/18 @ 5pm GMT, as traders look to US corn/soybean yields for confirmation of earlier big numbers while, further questions remain on wheat with Aus, Canada & EU 18/19 production numbers, along with exports for EU & Black Sea.
• CFTC report ending 4/9/18, showed managed money reduced CBOT wheat to +42766 contracts (-8414 WoW), KCBT wheat to +55254 contracts (-6206 WoW), and MNE wheat n+976 contracts (-1589 WoW).
• CFTC report ending 4/9/18, showed managed money marginally reduced CBOT corn short to -56884 (+73 WoW), but continued to sell CBOT Soybeans to -62749 contracts (-9107 WoW).
• Matif Wheat Sep18 contract continues to see wild swings, as the contract goes into tender, with a c. €15/t trading range in the last 3 days.
• UK futures bounced from post-Vivergo news, drops to close only marginally down on the day, but well off the previous day lows of £172 & off the day lows of £173.1 Nov18 London.

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £174.6/t – down £0.65/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €197.75 – down €0.75/tonne from previous close

CBOT Nov ’18 Soybeans Settle $8.44/bushel – down 5.75 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle - $3.67/bushel – up 1.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.1125/bushel – down 0.75 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1178

GBP USD 1.2948

EUR GBP 0.8942

EUR USD 1.1582