Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 13 July 2017

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soy lower, although off the lows, as weather threatens yields and provides underlying support. Corn lower on bearish USDA, albeit not a surveyed report, weather still threatens. Wheat lower as bearish report (higher spring wheat crop) continued fund long liquidation.
• USDA cuts US 2017/18 wheat production, but raises stocks on lower export projection. Global production and stocks marginally trimmed.
• USDA raises US 2017/18 corn production and stocks - surprises market by leaving corn yield unchanged @ 170.7bu/ac. Global production and stocks also projected higher than forecast.
• Brazil’s CONAB raised its 2016/17 corn crop forecast to 96mln t, up from 93.83mln t last month, citing an increase in planted area and productivity for the second corn crop. It maintained its 2016/17 soybean crop estimate at 113.92mln t.
• Russia’s Ag Ministry reported that the country had harvested 9.1mln t of grain with an average yield of 4.42t/ha so far this year, down from 13.8mln t harvested with an average yield of 4.34t/ha by the same date a year earlier.
• Ukrainian regions have started the 2017 grain harvest threshing 3.7mln t of grain (from 1.2mln ha), with an average yield of 3.16t/ha a/o 11th July. Total grain area came to 14.3mln ha, including 6.28mln wheat, 4.47mln maize, 2.46mln barley and 1mln of other grains/cereals.
• China’s 2017/18 soybean output is expected to reach 14.73mln t according to the Ag Ministry, up from last month’s 14.1mln t, with further forecasted corn output to reach 211.91mln t. Little changed from last month’s forecast of 211.65mln t.
• Farm office FranceAgriMer slightly raised its estimates of soft wheat stocks as of the end of the 2016/17 season (June 30th) to 2.8mln t, compared with 2.7mln t last month. Upward revision to supply outweighed an increase of exports within the EU.
• £ firms back to similar numbers seen last week after a dip in values, particularly vs Eur, following divisive comments on the BREXIT divorce bill and further comments from BoE that base interest rates are unlikely to increase in the near future.

Last Trade Settlement:
London Nov ’17 Settle £152.00/t – down £2.00/t from previous close
Paris Dec ’17 Settle €184.75 – down €2.25/t from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $3.9875/bushel – down 15.50 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $5.6050/bushel – down 16.000 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1335
GBP USD 1.2930
EUR GBP 0.8815
EUR USD 1.1405