Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 16 November 2017

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soy higher on NOPA crush data and talk of higher Chinese crush/imports. Corn unchanged after setting new contract low with slow farmer selling noted as harvest nears completion. Wheat lower on weak technical signs and due to confusion over Egypt’s wheat import standard. GASC (Egypt) are tendering today and all eyes will be on how much is offered, and by who, along with much ‘protection’ is built into the offers given the import confusion/uncertainty.
• SAm weather has no major changes as things remain quiet in Argentina through this week with rains confined to the far north/ south, with 10 day forecast calling for limited rains. Brazil sees rain in the south through the weekend, with 10 day forecast showing good rains in most areas. Temperatures look to run below average in most areas for most of the next 10 days.
• Egypt’s wheat reserves are sufficient to last through until April, reported the supply minister, with the country expected to purchase about 7mln t of wheat during the fiscal year that started in July.
• Egypt’s Ag Ministry is awaiting instructions from the cabinet, after a court ruling reinstating a ban on wheat imports containing the common ergot fungus renewed uncertainty over the policy.
• Chinese official think tank reports country’s soybean crushing volume may double (possibly triple next year), with COFCO estimating that this year’s bean imports will hit 100mln t.
• Brazil’s 2017-18 soybean crop should reach 109.43mln t according to an average from analysts on a Reuters poll, as impact from early dryness in the season remain uncertain. Brazil should plant 34.8mln ha as more farmers opt for the oilseed in the first crop of the year.
• Ukrainian farmers have harvested 56.1mln t of grain from 93% of the season’s sown area, of 13.5mln ha, ministry data showed. Ukraine has completed the 2017 wheat harvest threshing 26.5mln t, with the total grain harvest seen at 62mln t. Exports could reach 45mln t.

Last Trade Settlement:
London Nov ’17 Settle £138.20/t – down £0.05/t from previous close
Paris Dec ’17 Settle €159.25 – down €0.50/t from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $3.3825/bushel – up 0.75 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $4.2000/bushel – down 8.00 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1195
GBP USD 1.3185
EUR GBP 0.8920
EUR USD 1.1770