Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 17 July 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets close – soybeans have rebounded on rumours that China may be willing to come back to the negotiating table. Corn also higher, although US weather deemed ‘non-threatening’. Wheat lower on reports of better HRW yields and rains in the forecast.
• NASS reported US corn crop rating at 72% good/excellent, down 3 points on the week and vs 64% last year.
• NASS reported US soybean crop rating at 69% good/excellent, down 2 pints on the week and vs 61% last year.
• NASS reported US spring wheat crop rating at 80% good/excellent, unchanged on the week and vs 34% last year.
• NASS reported US corn crop silking at 63%, up 26 points on the week and vs 37% last year, and 37% as the 5-yr average.
• NASS reported US soybean crop blooming at 65%, up 18 points on the week, and vs 49% last year and 45% as the 5-yr average.
• NASS reported US soybean crop setting pods at 26%, up 15 points on the week and vs 15% last year, and 11% as the 5-yr average.
• NASS reported US spring wheat crop headed at 93%, up 12 points on the week and vs 89% last year, and 85% as the 5-yr average.
• NASS reported US winter wheat harvest 74% complete, up 11 points on the week and vs 74% last year, and 71% as the 5-yr average.
• US Midwest weather forecast has above average rains to fall, and temperatures being cool to a bit below average for the next 10 days, with dryness seen for the weekend and early next week.
• US 11-16 day weather forecast has average temperatures and below average precipitation for the Midwest. Limited rains in the Plains due to ridging, with the southern Plains seeing above normal precipitation and northern Plains seeing average temperatures.
• US soybeans crushing in June was likely the largest on record for the month, as soy plants took advantage of high profitable crush margins for processing.
• China’s commence ministry said it had filed a complaint with the WTO regarding Washington’s proposed tariff list on $200 billion worth of Chinese good son July 16th.
• Brazilian farmers are expected to expand the area planted with soybeans to a record 36mln ha in the 2018-19 season, which begins in September, according the consultancy Safras & Mercado. As a result, Safras forecasts Brazil will harvest 119.78mln t of beans in 2018-19.
• EU wheat harvest shrinks as weather takes its toll, with forecasters cutting estimates as the EU wheat harvest gets going. North EU hit by parched conditions. Downpours hurt France, with EU volume dropping, to add to tighter global supply.

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £169.10/t – down £0.40/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €186.00 – up €0.50/tonne from previous close

CBOT Nov ’18 Soybean Settle - $8.4575/bushel – up 11.50cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle - $3.5525– up 0.50 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.0400 – down 8.50 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1275

GBP USD 1.3205

EUR GBP 0.8865

EUR USD 1.1710