- Location
- Lincolnshire
- US markets – soy lower on NOPA crush data, but rebounded off lows on threatening weather. Corn slightly lower despite expected decline in crop ratings and weather concerns. Wheat lower on further long liquidation on Chicago and KC markets.
- CFTC report showed managed money a/o 11th July extended their Chicago wheat long by 26682 contracts, now seen 44685 contract long. They also extended long positions in Kansas City and Minneapolis by 18185 and 2294 contracts respectively.
- CFTC report showed managed money a/o 11th July switched both their corn and soy shorts into long positions on weather issues. Purchased 147679 contracts of corn (now 100964 contracts long) and purchased 89254 contract soy (now 19048 contracts long).
- NASS reported the US corn crop at 64% good/excellent condition, down 1 point on the week, with 40% of the crop silking vs 53% last year and 47% as 5-yr average.
- NASS reported the US soybean crop at 61% good/excellent condition, down 1 point on the week, with 52% blooming vs 56% last year vs 51% as 5-yr average, and 16% setting pods vs 16% last year and 13% as 5-yr average.
- NASS reported the US winter wheat crop at 75% harvested vs 75% last year and 73% as 5-yr average.
- NASS reported the US spring wheat crop at 34% good/excellent condition, down 1 point on the week and compared with 69% last year, with 91% of the crop seen as headed vs 95% last year and 87% as 5-yr average.
- US midwest weather has rain generally falling in the north over next 5 days, south mainly dry and hot. 6-10 day forecast has rain over the weekend/early next week, with rain across much of the region.
- Canada – Alberta crop conditions a/o 11th July declined 5 points over the week to 70%, rated as good to excellent with hot and dry weather across much of the province.
- Australian wheat production is on course to miss official forecasts by more than 20% according to private estimates, as dry weather crimps yields, with market now beginning to factor in a crop between 19-21mln t compared with official estimates made in June of 24.1mln t.
- China’s better quality wheat output has increased significantly this year and may reduce imports, reports the Ag Ministry. Total summer wheat harvest came in at 127.35mln t, up 0.9% y/y.
- Russian wheat export prices gained for a ninth straight week, supported by the rouble’s strength, while rain delayed the harvesting campaign.
- Russia had harvested 14.4mln t of all grain a/o 14th July with an average yield of 4.46t/ha, down from the 18.2mln t harvested with an average yield of 4.215t/ha by the same date a year earlier.
- All Ukrainian regions have started their 2017 harvest, threshing 6.5mln t of grain with an average yield of 3.18t/ha a/o 14th July. Farmers have harvested 2mln ha of the total grain area of 14.3mln ha.
London Nov ’17 Settle £148.15/t – down £0.85/t from previous close
Paris Dec ’17 Settle €179.50 – down €1.75/t from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $3.8800/bushel – down 1.50 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $5.3025/bushel – down 4.50 cents/bushel from previous close
Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1300
GBP USD 1.3020
EUR GBP 0.8845
EUR USD 1.1525