Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 18 July 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets close – soybean higher on news that China may be ‘willing to talk’ and larger than expected drop in crop ratings. Corn higher on support from soybeans, lower crop ratings. Wheat higher on lack of ‘follow-through’ selling, and talk of lower foreign supplies.
• US Midwest weather forecast has no major changes, as above average rains look to fall, with temperatures running average to below average for the next 10 days. Things look to be fairly quiet the first half of the week.
• US 11-16 day weather forecast has average temperatures and close to average precipitation for the Midwest, limited rains seen in the Plains due to ridging, with the southern Plains seeing above average temperatures. The northern Plains average temperatures.
• US export inspections had wheat exports running 44% behind y/y, with USDA forecasting a 8% increase, corn 5% behind (up 5%), and soybeans 4% behind (a 4% decline).
• Brazilian fob cash offers of beans have significantly risen against US gulf prices, the difference reflecting nearly the 25% tariff that China has levied on US bean imports, although if cargoes are for state reserves, China will compensate the buyer for the cost of the tariff.
• Russia had harvested 27.2mln t of grain, with an average yield of 3.76t/ha from 16% of the area, data from the Ag Ministry showed. It had harvested 12.2mln t, with an average yield of 4.49t/ha, on the same date a year earlier.
• Russia’s July exports of wheat, barley and maize, are estimated at 3.25mln t compared with 3.09mln t in June, SovEcon reported.
• Germany is expected to harvest 21.419mln t of wheat this year, down 12% from 2017 consultancy Agritel said. The production forecast, 16% below the 5-yr average, reflects the impact of hot, dry spring weather that lowered yields, and heavy autumn rains that reduced sowings.
• UK barley harvest is progressing well with winter yields looking acceptable, while wheat harvest in the south of the country will start in earnest over the next 10 days. The UK wheat market continues to be underpinned over concerns of a smaller crop and a tight balance sheet.

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £171.70/t – up £2.60/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €188.75 – up €2.75/tonne from previous close

CBOT Nov ’18 Soybean Settle - $8.5525/bushel – up 9.50cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle - $3.5975– up 4.50 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.1225 – up 8.25 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1210

GBP USD 1.3035

EUR GBP 0.8915

EUR USD 1.1625