Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 18 October 2018

ADM Agriculture

Member
Trade
Location
Lincolnshire
  • US markets close – Soybeans higher on slowdown of US harvest, record domestic crop and hope of new US/China trade deal. Corn higher on short covering linked to good demand and slow US harvest. Wheat higher, as talk of declining foreign supplies supports.
  • For the w/e 9th October, CFTC report showed managed money extended their Chicago wheat short position by 4786 contracts (now seen 16885 contracts short), while also trimming their Kansas City wheat long position by 2612 contracts (now seen 25813 contracts long).
  • For the w/e 9th October, CFTC report showed managed money trimmed their Chicago corn short position by 23732 contracts (now seen 34032 contracts short), while also trimming their Chicago soybean short by 3002 contracts (now seen 41401 contracts short).
  • US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, plan to meet at the G20 summit in Argentina in late November, citing officials in both countries.
  • US Midwest weather forecast has no major changes as this week looks fairly quiet in all areas. Temperatures seen running below average early this week, before warming to average by the second part of the week.
  • US Southern Plains weather forecast has no major changes, as things look dry across the region over the next 10 days.
  • Brazil weather forecast has no major changes with close to average rainfall in most areas over the 10 day period.
  • Argentina weather forecast has no major changes, as this week sees light to moderate rains to fall.
  • China is considering a limit on the amount of protein used to feed pigs and poultry, highlighting Beijing’s concerns that hefty Chinese tariffs on US soybeans will tighten supplies.
  • Brazilian farmers could collect a record grain crop in the 2018-19 marketing season if weather conditions permit, the Ag Ministry reported, as CONAB estimated the country’s grain crop could reach a record 238.54mln t.
  • Frost and a lack of rain could scale back Argentina’s 2018-19 wheat crop, which is currently seen as a record 19.7, the BAGE reported. Farmers still in the stage of planting the 2018-19 corn crop, with 27% of the expected 5.8mln ha sown.
  • SovEcon upgraded its forecast for Russia’s 2018 grain crop by 700,000t to 109mln t, including a rise in the wheat estimate to 69.8mln t from 69.0mln t previously, but a lower corn estimate of 9.8mln t, down from 10.6mln t previously.
  • Strategie Grains raised its estimate of the EU 2018-19 soft wheat crop by 0.2mln t to 127mln t, still 10% down y/y, raises exports 0.6mln t to 19.4mln t. Also sees the EU grain maize crop at 59.4mln t, up 1mln t from previous estimate, with exports also raised to 21.1mln t.
  • Farm office FranceAgriMer estimates the French maize harvest was 65% complete a/o Oct 8th, well above the 24% seen at the same date last year. Soft wheat sowings for next year’s harvest were estimated at 15% complete.
Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £177.70/t – up £0.45/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €204.75 – up €1.25/tonne from previous close

CBOT Nov ’18 Soybeans Settle - $8.6750/bushel – up 9.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle - $3.7375/bushel – up 4.50 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.1725/bushel – up 9.25 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1350

GBP USD 1.3140

EUR GBP 0.8810

EUR USD 1.1580
 

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Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

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As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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