- Location
- Lincolnshire
- US markets – soy and corn ended higher, but off the highs, as midday GFS model gave a much wetter outlook for the mid-west 23-28th July, confining rising temperature/dryness to the far western corn belt. Wheat lower on continued long liquidation, Egyptian tender, which reportedly saw little change on previous tender values.
- Some private crop estimates suggest US 2017 corn yield could be near 165bpa (crop 13760mln bushels), and also see soybean yield near 47.5bpa (crop 4210mln bushels). Currently USDA pegging yields at 170.7 and 48pba respectively.
- Wire story reports droughts are shrivelling high-quality wheat crops across in several key areas, sending prices to recent year highs. Bread makers scramble for supplies, as high protein wheat has emerged as the one tight commodity in a swamped global market. The UK market has the potential to buck this general trend with high proportions of Gp1 & 2 varieties (40%) in the ground, with UK wheat harvest in the not too distant future.
- NOPA’s June soy crush data fell below trade estimates, and at 138.1mln bushels, was well below the 143.1mln bushels expected compared with 149.2mln bushels the month previous and 145.1mln bushels in June last year.
- Yesterday’s USDA US weekly export inspections indicated year-on-year wheat exports were running 26% ahead of a year ago, with the USDA currently forecasting an 8% yearly decline.
- Brazilian corn exports rose sharply in the first two weeks of July as key producing states continued harvesting their second crop.
- Canada – Manitoba reports above normal temperatures continue to advance crops while rain fell in much of the province last week. Central/western areas would benefit from additional rain, with majority of crops in the flowering/fill stages of development.
- Russia’s IKAR revised its forecast for Russia’s 2017 wheat crop to 71-75mln t, while Russia’s Grain Union sees the wheat crop ‘more than 70mln t’, with the country expected to produce 115-118mln t of grain in 2017, exceeding the previous year’s harvest.
- Egypt’s GASC purchased 300,000t (120k mt Russian, 120k mt Romanian and 60k mt French wheat) for August 21-31 shipment. Prices paid were similar to previous tender with Russian prices at $10 over standard 12.5% fob levels to cover GASC costing, while lower freight allowed French to compete.
- UK barley harvest progresses well, however rains across the South & NW of the country last night will delay in the short-term with catchy weather moving into the short-term forecast. Wheat harvest is still very much in its infancy/not started, with only small parcels of very early maturing varieties/light land in EA being cut at this point.
London Nov ’17 Settle £148.70/t – up £0.55/t from previous close
Paris Dec ’17 Settle €179.25 – down €0.25/t from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $3.9075/bushel – up 2.75 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $5.2675/bushel – down 3.50 cents/bushel from previous close
Currency Today:
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