Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 19 July 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets close – soybeans higher on continued talk that China ‘willing to talk’. Corn higher on crop concerns in parts of the Midwest from hot weather during pollination. Wheat lower as talk of large US2018 spring wheat harvest continues to offer resistance.
• US Midwest weather forecast has no major changes with above average rains and temperatures running average to below average, things look to be dry across much of the region for much of next week.
• US 11-16 day weather forecast has average temperatures and close to average precipitation for the Midwest. Limited rains are seen in the Plains due to ridging. The Southern Plains are to have above average temperatures, the Northern Plains average temperatures.
• US traders were focused on US Chief Economic Advisor, Larry Kudlow’s, comments at the recent conference in New York. To sum up, he said that several officials in China are willing to make a trade deal, but the proverbial ‘ball in is President Xi’s court’.
• China’s summer grain output fell 2.2% to 138.72mln t in 2018, with grain acreage at 267.03mln ha, down 0.6% y/y. Output drop this year was mainly due to falling wheat acreage and yield, as bad weather damaged the grain, and after farmers switched to other crops.
• The imposition of minimum freight prices by the Brazilian government, which in practice raises logistic costs for farmers, may limit the growth of the country’s soybean area in the next harvest.
• UK cereals harvest continues to progress steadily, with early parcels of wheat beginning to come forward slowly in the South, albeit very limited and off light land, with comments stating yields are looking average/below average at this stage.

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £171.50/t – down £0.20/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €187.75 – down €1.00/tonne from previous close

CBOT Nov ’18 Soybean Settle - $8.5775/bushel – up 2.50cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle - $3.6100– up 1.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.1075 – down 1.50 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1190

GBP USD 1.3000

EUR GBP 0.8925

EUR USD 1.1610