Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 19 October 2018

ADM Agriculture

Member
Trade
Location
Lincolnshire
  • US markets close – soybeans lower on sharp drop in Chinese/US stocks, weakness in energy markets and poor export sales. Corn lower on disappointing sales data. Wheat lower as CBOT/KCBT settled below critical support levels with follow-through weakness likely.
  • The EPA aims to release its draft rule allowing year-round sales of higher ethanol gasoline blends by February, and end deliberations on the proposal by May, according to a filing with the Office of Management and Budget.
  • US regulators have cleared the way for farmers to grow a cotton plant genetically modified to make the cottonseed edible for people, a protein-packed potential new food source that could be beneficial in cotton-growing countries beset with malnutrition.
  • US Midwest weather forecast sees light rains working through the region over the weekend. Most of next week is dry with possible rains in the west the following weekend. Temperatures continue to run below average for the near to mid-term.
  • US Southern Plains weather has most of the weekend and next week looking dry with some rains possible the following weekend. Temperatures seen running below average.
  • Brazilian weather still has a soaking rain pattern in most areas over the near to mid-term with coverage around 85%.
  • Argentine weather has a front moving in with light to moderate rains covering around 75% of the region favouring the west this week, before a stronger front moves in over the weekend and early next week. bringing moderate rainfall to most regions.
  • BAGE estimates Argentine corn planting progress at 32.6% complete, as recent rainfall has boosted moisture levels and allowed producers to speed up sowings, although crop condition is still reported well down y/y.
  • BAGE estimates Argentine wheat harvest progress at 1.2% complete with early results showing very poor yields. Crop condition also reported to be well down y/y.
  • China’s recent corn auction was well subscribed with 3.2mln t of corn sold out of the 3.9mln t offered. Since April 12th China has sold 93mln t out of government state reserves.
  • Kazakhstan plans to resume exports of wheat to the Egyptian market after years of absence.
  • Ukraine has exported 11.1mln t of grain since the season began July 1st, down from around 13mln t as the same point last season, Ag ministry data showed. Exports included 6.7mln t of wheat and 1.9mln t of corn, with total seasonal exports maybe reaching 42mln t.
  • Russian 2018-19 wheat exports totalled 13.8mln t in the first three months of the season that started July 1st, up 41% y/y, according to official data. Exports for all grains were seen at 16.2mln t, up 29% y/y.
Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £175.85/t – up £0.10/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €201.25 – down €0.75/tonne from previous close

CBOT Nov ’18 Soybeans Settle - $8.6350/bushel – down 22.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle - $3.7075/bushel – down 3.50 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.1300/bushel – down 4.50 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1370

GBP USD 1.3030

EUR GBP 0.8795

EUR USD 1.1460
 

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