Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 2 February 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soy lower on talk of rain in Argentina/drier Brazil and lower than expected export sales. Corn virtually unchanged as higher exports support/large US supply offers resistance. Wheat marginally lower, but well off the lows, as lower US$/dry US plains supports.
• South American weather now has hit and miss rainfall later next week in Argentina, with limited rainfall in Brazil early next week too, and closer to average in the 6-10 forecast. Near average temperatures seen for all South America over next 10 days.
• BAGE lowered its 2017-18 soybean production estimate to 51mln t, from 54mln t in October. Soy is planted with final acreage estimated at 18mln ha.
• BAGE estimated corn plantings at 96.7% complete vs 92.4% last week. Corn planted area estimate was left unchanged at 5.4mln ha, but commented that dryness is curbing yield potential.
• Russia’s SovEcon reported it had upgraded its forecast for Russian 2017-18 grain exports to 48mln t, from a previously 46.6mln t. Its estimate for 2017-18 wheat exports was raised to 36.8mln t, from 35.5mln t previously, due to strong exports in December18/January19.
• Wheat from Pakistan has been sold to overseas buyers, after the country started a new state export incentive program. Around 200-300,000t may have been sold – this is seen potentially undercutting Russian wheat in East Africa.
• FAO raised its forecast for total global cereals output in 2017 to 2.64bln t, 1.3% higher than 2016’s harvest and an all-time record high.
• EU soft wheat exports a/o Jan 30th were reported at 12.18mln t, down 18.6% y/y, with all-wheat exports at 13.31mln t, down 19.3%. Soft wheat imports were reported at 2.2mln t, up 5.1% y/y, and all-wheat imports at 3.2mln t, up 1.5% y/y.

Last Trade Settlement:
London May ’18 Settle £138.00/t – down £1.60/tonne from previous close - traded at yearly low of £137.50 during the session
Paris May ’18 Settle €158.75 down €1.75/t from previous close
CBOT Mar ’18 Corn Settle $3.6175/bushel – up 0.25cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Mar ’18 Wheat Settle $4.5100/bushel – down 0.75 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1385
GBP USD 1.4215
EUR GBP 0.8780
EUR USD 1.2485