Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 21 July 2017

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soy & corn higher on NOAA 30 and 90 day Midwest forecast of a warmer than normal weather outlook. Wheat higher on lower US$ and support from firmer soy/corn markets.
• Informa Economics has adjusted its US production forecasts due to continued dry conditions. Corn seen at 13.9bln bushels (166.2b/ac) and spring wheat seen at nearly 400mln bushels (38.1b/ac).
• US weather – Midwest saw no major changes with general rains over next 2-3 days in north, mainly dry for the south, while the weekend looks dry with 6-10 day forecast seeing rains again in the northern sections.
• US weather – Northern US Plains forecast has periodic precipitation for the region over the next 5 days with no widespread/soaking rains seen while the 6-10 day forecast sees close to average rainfall in the east and limited activity in the west.
• US weather – 11-16 day forecast has ridging in the plains producing above average temperatures and limited rainfall for those areas, with average temperatures and average to below average precipitation seen for the Midwest and Delta regions.
• Argentina’s 2016-17 corn harvest will reach a record 49mln t according to the Ag Minister. Much higher than the government’s most recent official estimate for a 47.5mln t harvest.
• Wheat farms in the state of Parana (Brazil’s largest wheat producing state) were hit by frosts earlier in the week, causing damage to the crop in the west of the state. Frost occurred in a smaller than expected area and the extent of the damage will be assessed.
• Matif fell for the 7th straight day closing at a 3-week low as the euro rallied to a near 2-year high. EU shipments, although very early in the season, were reported running 70% behind a year ago.
• UK harvest continues to be dogged by catchy and sporadic weather, with rains seen generally across the country over the weekend.

Last Trade Settlement:
London Nov ’17 Settle £148.30/t – up £0.35/t from previous close
Paris Dec ’17 Settle €176.75 – down €1.50/t from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $4.0475/bushel – up 8.50 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $5.2925/bushel – up 3.50 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1150
GBP USD 1.3000
EUR GBP 0.8965
EUR USD 1.1655