Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 25 October 2018

ADM Agriculture

Member
Trade
Location
Lincolnshire
  • US markets close – soybean lower on weak meal prices, and talk that China will allow the sale of 4-6mln t from state reserves. Corn lower on favourable harvest weather. Wheat lower (traded at a six-week low) on a higher US$ and potential higher Russian export supplies.
  • US Midwest weather forecast has a weak system working through before seeing the weekend and early next week dry. Another system brings moderate rains, or even snow, second half of next week. Temperatures will be running below normal.
  • US Southern Plains weather forecast has light to moderate rainfall favouring the west. Things quiet down for the region at the weekend and first half of next week, with light to moderate rains later next week. Temperatures will be running below average.
  • Brazil weather continues with a soaking rain pattern for most of the region over the near to mid-term with coverage around 75%.
  • Argentina weather forecast has light to moderate rainfall in the western growing region. Things will be mainly dry in all regions through the remainder of the week, with hit and miss rains later in the weekend and into the first half of next week.
  • The UN food agency says extreme weather in Syria has caused domestic agricultural production to hit its lowest point in three decades, as wheat production this year fell to a 29-year low of 1.2mln t, about 2/3th of last year’s level.
  • Algeria purchased 500-600mt of wheat for December. Shipment will probably mean that new crop Argentine, although cheaper, will not be the originator. Likely to be French, but could be the last throw of the dice before new crop Argentine enters the market in early 2019.
  • Russian Ag Ministry commented that the grain harvest this year will be 109mln t, 3mln t above the earlier plan, and grain exports will grow to 38-39mln t.
  • Ukraine’s total grain exports were seen at 12.1mln t a/o Oct 24th , down 3.8% on the year. Corn exports are seen at 2.3mln t, up 57% y/y.
Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £171.35/t – down £2.40/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €200.250 – down €0.50/tonne from previous close

CBOT Nov ’18 Soybeans Settle - $8.5025/bushel – down 7.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle - $3.6825/bushel – down 2.00 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $4.9950/bushel – down 9.50 cents/bushel from previous close

UK wheat has continued its current weak trend, trading down another £1-2 this morning, as the perceived fall in domestic usage (closure of the UK’s ethanol plants) increases the UK surplus.

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1305

GBP USD 1.2900

EUR GBP 0.8840

EUR USD 1.1410
 

SFI - What % were you taking out of production?

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  • 100% I’ve had enough of farming!

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Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

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As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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