Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 29 January 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soy lower on disappointing export sales. Corn slightly higher as Argentine concerns continues to support. Wheat higher as export sales showed an improvement and short-covering as US drought concerns intensify.
• US President Donald Trump said he ultimately wants the dollar to be strong, contradicting comments made by the Treasury Secretary one day earlier.
• CFTC reports showed that a/o 23rd January managed funds extended their Chicago wheat short by 2469 contracts (now seen 145408 contracts short), extended their short KCBT wheat position by 3576 contracts, but trimmed their long Minneapolis position by 39 contracts.
• CFTC reports showed that a/o 23rd January managed funds trimmed their Chicago corn short by 7200 contracts (now seen 219676 contracts short), and trimmed their short Chicago soybean position by 21859 contracts (now seen 81538 contracts short).
• More than two dozen small US refineries are seeking waivers from the nation’s biofuels law, an unusually high number that reflects growing oil industry resistance to the program.
• South American weather forecast has no major changes. Limited rainfall in Argentina for next 6-10 days, forecast for this week is limited rainfall for Southern Brazil with heavy amounts in the North. Temperatures seen near average for most of South America.
• Argentine farmers are expected to sow 8.7mln ha of corn in the current 2017-18 season, compared with a previous estimate of 8.8mlm ha, while parts of the grain belt suffer from dry conditions, reports the Ag Ministry. They also see soy at 16.75mln ha, down from previous 16.8mln ha.
• Russia gathered the record-breaking harvest of grain in weight after processing amounting to 134.1mln t, up 11.2% y/y the Russian Federal Statistics Service reported. Deputy PM commented the country will support high grain exports and problems will be solved.
• EU soft wheat exports in the 2017-18 marketing season reached 11.9mln t a/o Jan 16th, down 17% y/y, official data showed. All wheat exports were reported at 13.0mln t, down 18% y/y, whilst all-wheat imports were reported at 3.0mln t, unchanged y/y.

Last Trade Settlement:
London May ’18 Settle £138.50/t – down £0.15/tonne from previous close
Paris May ’18 Settle €160.25 – up €1.00/t from previous close
CBOT Mar ’18 Corn Settle $3.5650/bushel – up 1.25 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Mar ’18 Wheat Settle $4.4100/bushel – up 6.50 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1365
GBP USD 1.4110
EUR GBP 0.8795
EUR USD 1.2415

 

[franklin]

It would be helpful if you could swap the currency and overseas grain futures with something like a price for OSR delivered to say Hull or full spec wheat delivered to a large mill etc.