Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 3 November 2017

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soy higher on technical buying and in case US/SA crops lower. Corn higher on money flow and technical buying. Wheat higher on money flow and technical buying having made recent market lows.
• US Midwest weather has rains moving in this weekend, with warming temperatures, 1 ½ - 2 inches of rain seen in Northern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.
• US Northern Plains weather has temperatures dipping below freezing and highs near low 40’s into the weekend, with the potential of accumulating snowfall as an autumn storm sweeps out of the Rockies, with areas of Montana and Wyoming potentially seeing 8-12 inches of snow.
• US Southern Plains and Delta weather has unseasonal warmth with highs in the 70’s and near 80’s in Texas and Oklahoma over the weekend. Precipitation will be mainly confined to Tennessee and Northern Arkansas.
• FC Stone estimates US soy yield at 49.9bpa, unchanged from their previous projection (USDA @ 49.5bpa), and further estimates US corn yield at 173.7bpa, up sharply above their previous projection of 169.2pba (USDA @ 171.8bpa).
• A weed killer has damaged more than 3.6mln acres of soybean crops, or about 4% of the total planted area in the US this year, the EPA reported, calling for an urgent federal response.
• EU reported soft wheat exports in the w/e 31st October at only 18,000t, bringing the year-to-date figure to 6.606mln t, down 25% from last season’s 8.829mln t. Soft wheat imports seen at 1.095mln t, up 3% y/y.
• £ sterling dipped yesterday on a ‘buy the rumour sell the fact’, as interest rates were increased to 0.5%, the first increase since 2007. Investors had hoped to see hints of further rates rises which were not confirmed.

Last Trade Settlement:
London Nov ’17 Settle £139.00/t – up £2.25 from previous close
Paris Dec ’17 Settle €163.00 – up €3.50/t from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $3.5050/bushel – up 2.25 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $4.2600/bushel – up 8.00 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1215
GBP USD 1.3065
EUR GBP 0.8915
EUR USD 1.1650