Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 30 August 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets close – soybeans higher, although rain over the coming days still seen as bearish for the market. Corn marginally higher, as seasonal pressure weighs on prices. Wheat higher on news that Russian Ag Ministry will consider introducing a wheat export tax potentially.
• US/EU wheat prices surged higher yesterday on talk of Russian export curbs, with Russian Ag Ministry due to discuss current market situation, production and export plans during its routine meeting with exporters next Monday.
• US Midwest weather forecast has rains finishing & turning quieter Friday. More rain returns to the north over the weekend, and for the whole region the middle of next week. Temperatures seen bouncing from the 70’s to the 90’s.
• US 11-16 day forecast continues to hold average temperatures for the Midwest and Plains. Average to a bit below average rainfall is seen from the Midwest. Below average for the Plains.
• China will lower the price for some of its wheat stocks from early September. The move is the most recent effort by Beijing to destock its huge wheat stockpiles.
• Indian framers harvested a record 99.7mln t of wheat in the crop year to June 2018, up from 98.61mln t estimated in May, data released by the farm ministry showed.
• South Africa is expected to harvest 13.2mln t of maize in 2018, the CEC reported, largely in line with market expectations.
• IKAR downgraded its forecast for Russia’s 2018 grain crop to 110mln t, from a previous 112.8mln t, lowering its forecast for grain exports to 39.8mln t, down from 41mlm t previously. Cuts wheat crop from 70.8mln t to 69.6mln t, but left exports unchanged at 32.5mln t.

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £182.15/t – up £4.95/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €203.25 – up €5.00/tonne from previous close

CBOT Nov ’18 Soybeans Settle - $8.3600/bushel – up 2.75 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle - $3.5650/bushel – up 0.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.4175/bushel – up 18.50 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1125

GBP USD 1.3005

EUR GBP 0.8985

EUR USD 1.1685