Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 30 January 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soy higher on forecast for drier Argentine weather and wetter Brazilian, offsetting talk of higher US acreage. Corn higher on talk of higher global demand, South American concerns. Wheat higher as short-covering linked to a drier US plains weather outlook continues.
• For the w/e Jan 18th US all wheat sales are running 10% down y/y, with shipments 6% lower y/y, with the USDA forecasting a 8% decline on the year. Corn sales 22% down y/y, with shipments 32% lower y/y, with USDA forecasting a 16% decline on the year.
• Surging US corn exports this month should gain even more momentum, helped by a weakening US$ and dry weather in Argentina and South Africa, that threatens to cut output for rival exporters.
• A collapse of the NAFTA which US President Trump has threatened to scrap, could create the most profound disruption for US farmers who produce grain, meats and dairy products sold to Canada and Mexico.
• South American weather had as surprise rainfall across the majority of Argentina, limited rains seen over next 10 days. Limited rains seen for southern Brazil, close to average for the north over next 6-10 days. Temps look average for South America over upcoming 10 days.
• South African maize farmers are expected to plant 18% less of the staple crop this season, due to hot, dry weather along the western part of the maize belt, a Reuters poll showed ahead of the South Africa’s Crop Estimate Committee (CEC) projection.
• Russia is expected to export 4.1mln t of wheat, barley and corn in January, down from 4.9mln t in December, SovEcon reported. Export prices rose last week due to higher global prices and the strengthening of the rouble against the US$.
• The EU Commission cut its estimate of common wheat output in the EU in the 2017-18 season to 141.5mln t from 142mln t previously. It also cut its export forecast to 25.5mln t from 26mln t previously.

Last Trade Settlement:
London May ’18 Settle £139.30/t – up £0.80/tonne from previous close
Paris May ’18 Settle €161.50 – up €1.25/t from previous close
CBOT Mar ’18 Corn Settle $3.5875/bushel – up 2.25 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Mar ’18 Wheat Settle $4.4925/bushel – up 8.25 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1350
GBP USD 1.4070
EUR GBP 0.8805
EUR USD 1.2395