Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 31 January 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soy higher on short covering due to threatening weather in South America over next two weeks. Corn higher as market continues to find support from Argentine weather concerns and a weaker US$. Wheat higher as lower state crop ratings, weak US$ supports.
• Condition ratings for US winter wheat declined in January in several southern US plains states that had been hit by drought, including top producing state Kansas.
• Mexican Economy Minister says that negotiators from the US, Canada and Mexico have made enough progress in the talks to revamp NAFTA to be able to conclude the negotiations soon.
• South American weather predicts limited rainfall for Argentina over next 10 days. Limited rainfall seen in southern Brazil, with close to average in the north over next 10 days. Temperatures look average for South America over the 10 day period.
• The Rosario Board of trade chief economist lowered the Argentine soy yield to 2.9t/ha from 3.19t/ha last year, which would produce a crop of 52mln t compared with 57.9mln t last year.
• Thunderstorms and rainfall in key soy producing regions could hamper harvesting and delay planting of winter corn in some areas of Brazil, according to a weather forecaster, as wet conditions should prevail in many parts and are expected to continue through the week.
• The proportion of winter cereals in Ukraine in poor condition diminished over a two-week period following favourable weather. UkrAgroConsult reported the percentage of crops rated in good condition rose to 49.4% (38.5% in 2017), while the share of crops in satisfactory condition decreased to 37% from 43.9%. Winter grain sowing are complete on a total area of 7.237mln ha, including 6.276mln ha of wheat.
• South African corn plantings were seen at 2.31mln ha in 2017-18, down from last year’s 2.63mln, according to the CEC. Less favourable rainfall and warmer temperatures have prevented producers from planting intended area, especially in the western corn belt.

Last Trade Settlement:
London May ’18 Settle £140.00/t – up £0.70/tonne from previous close
Paris May ’18 Settle €163.25 – up €1.85/t from previous close
CBOT Mar ’18 Corn Settle $3.6150/bushel – up 2.75 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Mar ’18 Wheat Settle $4.5725/bushel – up 8.00 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1350
GBP USD 1.4135
EUR GBP 0.8805
EUR USD 1.2450