Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 4 May 2017

ADM Agriculture

Member
Trade
Location
Lincolnshire
US markets – soy moved higher on talk that China have purchased more US beans. Corn higher on drier Brazilian outlook/US fuel mandate (increased ethanol) and mid-west weather. Wheat mixed as weather issues support, strong US$ gives some resistance.

US$ seen near six-week high on expectations of a June Fed rate hike – keeps pressure on US commodity prices.

US quality wheat tour (1st day in Kansas) reports yield potential about average, but not as good as last year (record state yield). Remains difficult to make a confident assessment given recent heavy snow.

Brazilian farmers are close to finishing their soybean harvest for 2016-17, with 95% complete a/o 28th April. Estimates now in the 110-112mln t range.

Russian wheat export prices remain flat last week, despite upward movement in CBOT. Talk of Russian exports to Turkey ‘resuming’ in the next few days.

EU Commission trims 300,000t off 2017 EU-28 soft wheat crop estimate to 141.9mln t (134.4mln t last year). Leaves export projections for both 16/17 and 17/18 unchanged at 24mln t and 28.9mln t respectively.

Last Trade Settlement:
London Nov ’17 Settle £140.15/t – down £0.10/t from previous close
Paris Dec ’17 Settle €173.25 – down €1.50/t from previous close
CBOT Nov ’17 Corn Settle $3.9225/bushel – up 2.25 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Nov ’17 Wheat Settle $4.8800/bushel – down 1.25 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1805
GBP USD 1.2885
EUR GBP 0.8470
EUR USD 1.0910
 

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