Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 6 February 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soy lower on talk of rains for Argentina this week and a drier Brazil. Corn lower, despite Argentinian crop concerns, as higher US$ and lower US equity/energy markets offered resistance. Wheat lower on talk that US southern plains could see needed rainfall.
• Heavy snow fell across the midwest over the weekend, easing fears that recent adverse weather will curb production by providing protection to crops and easing dryness concerns.
• US weather forecast for the midwest has winter being re-energised, with below normal temperatures pushing down from Canada for all the midwest/northern plains along with snowfall – system will move east into the weekend with rains in the SE and snow along the east coast.
• US 11-16 day forecast has temperatures normal in the central US and above normal in the west. Precipitation will be below normal in the northwest and northern plains, and normal in the eastern half of the US. Southern plains could see above normal precipitation.
• Stats Canada estimated December 31st 2017 all-wheat stocks at 23.55mln t, down 2.2% from last year’s 24.1mln t, and below the average trade estimate of 23.87mln t. Durum stocks were seen at 4.8mln t, down 21.4% y/y, but above traded estimates of 4.7mln t.
• Brazil’s Mato Grosso region is 19.9% harvested on soybeans, vs 12.4% last week, and 30.6% last year according to the Rural Economy Institute (IMEA).
• Saudi Arabia’s main state wheat buying agency (SAGO) said on Monday it had purchased 739,000t of wheat in an international tender, with origins noted as EU, North and South America or Australia – price paid would mean EU (France) most likely.

Last Trade Settlement:
London May ’18 Settle £137.25/t – down £0.35/tonne from previous close -traded at yearly low of £136.75 during the session
Paris May ’18 Settle €159.75 – unchanged from previous close
CBOT Mar ’18 Corn Settle $3.5875/bushel – down 2.75 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Mar ’18 Wheat Settle $4.4025/bushel – down 6.50 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1280
GBP USD 1.3985
EUR GBP 0.8865
EUR USD 1.2400