Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 6 November 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets close – soybeans lower on weaker tone following President’s Xi denouncement of US trade practices. Corn higher above a resistance level of 3.7150 on increased talk of lower corn yields. Wheat mostly lower on disappointing weekly export numbers.
• Informa Economics lowered its forecast for the US 2018 corn yield to 179.2bpa from last month’s 182.1bpa, and also lowered its soybean yield to 52.6bpa from last month’s 53bpa.
• US Midwest weather forecast has a rain system moving through early this week bringing light/moderate rainfall to 75% of the region, another system arrives later in the week bringing precipitation to most areas in the SE with some snow. Temperatures running below average.
• US Southern Plains weather forecast is dry through Wednesday, when a system brings light to moderate rains to most of the region, things then quiet down for the weekend and early next week. Temperatures will be running near average.
• Brazil weather forecast is for hit and miss rains to the north, with mainly dry weather elsewhere through the week, with the 6=10 days forecast having soaking rains for most areas with coverage around 85%.
• Argentina weather forecast has spotty rains for 70% of the growing region to early this week, with things drying at the end of the week, before a more powerful front is seen bringing light to moderate rains to 85% of the region by the weekend and early next week.
• Ukrainian farmers have completed winter grain sowing for the 2019 harvest and weather is seen favourable for the crop development, the state weather forecasters commented, putting 90% of the crop in good condition, the best in the past 10 years.
• Farm office FranceAgriMer reported 96% of the country’s maize crop had been harvested by Oct 28th vs 91% the previous week and 85% by the same time last year. Farmers had also sown 69% of the soft wheat crop vs 51% the previous week and 75% a year earlier.

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £170.05/t – down £2.20/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €200.25 – down €0.50/tonne from previous close

CBOT Nov ’18 Soybeans Settle - $8.7300/bushel – down 2.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle - $3.7400/bushel – up 2.75 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.0725/bushel – down 1.50 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1445

GBP USD 1.3060

EUR GBP 0.8730

EUR USD 1.1405