Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 6 September 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets close – soybean lower on talk of higher US yield, although Chinese demand and Argentine export uncertainties keep the market choppy. Corn lower, after failing to break 5-day moving average. Wheat lower on technical data, continued long liquidation.
• Yesterday US weekly export inspections (a/o Aug 30th), had US wheat exports running 32% behind y/y, with the USDA forecasting a 14% increase. Corn up 1% y/y and soybeans 3% behind y/y, although the marketing season for both corn and soybeans ended 31st August.
• US Midwest weather forecast looks to have more rains moving through the region, with remnants of Gordon (tropical storm) also impacting upon the region. Temperatures then look to turn drier towards next week, still seen 70’s-90’sish.
• US 11-16 day forecast has above average rains for the northern Midwest, average rains in the south and below average rains for the Plains. Temperatures for all regions running close to average.
• Egypt’s GASC purchased 60,000t of Russian wheat for 21-30 October shipment. 600,000t of Russian wheat offered along with a single Romanian cargo. Cargo purchased was offered $7 below the other Russian offers, and $20 below the sole Romanian offer.
• Argentina’s peso continues to slide, as investors react with scepticism to President Macri’s plans to cut the budget deficit. While a government delegation arrived in Washington for talks with the IMF about accelerating its standby finance deal.
• Ukraine’s maize production will jump this year to just over 30mln t, supported by record yields after crops benefited from good growing weather, consultancy Agritel forecast.
• UK£ ended the day higher generally, but off the highs, as early strength linked to reports that the UK and Germany had made progress towards a Brexit deal, then waned after London and Berlin both denied there had been any change.

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £177.35/t – down £0.65/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €199.75 – down €0.75/tonne from previous close

CBOT Nov ’18 Soybeans Settle - $8.3800/bushel – down 6.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle - $3.6525/bushel – down 3.00 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.2175/bushel – down 9.75 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1100

GBP USD 1.2920

EUR GBP 0.9000

EUR USD 1.1635