Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 7 December 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soybeans lower on scepticism that China will quickly resume buying US beans and talk of higher Brazilian production. Corn lower on weaker beans, talk of higher Ukrainian crop. Wheat lower on Egyptian tender, higher Canadian production.
• StatsCan reported Canadian total 2018 all-wheat production at 31.8mln t vs the average trade estimate of 31.45mln t, and up 6% y/y from last year’s 29.9mln t.
• Brazil’s weather forecast has no major changes as close to average rainfall is still seen in the north. Limited rains in the south, with a front bringing soaking rains to the south by the end of next week.
• Argentina’s weather forecast has no major changes as limited rainfall for now gives way to heavier precipitation by the middle of next week.
• China’s commerce ministry commented that the ultimate goal in Sino-US trade talks is to remove all tariffs, adding that the recent Trump/Xi Jinping meeting had been successful.
• Egypt’s Supply Minister said it had made payment guarantees for three wheat cargoes and would make them for five more, while guarantees for another eight cargoes were not due because the shipment date of Dec 11-20 had not been reached.
• Egypt’s GASC purchased 350,000t (290 Russian and 60 Ukrainian) for January 21-31 shipment. Average price paid of $252.97 was basically unchanged from their previous tender on Nov 22nd. The US was absent from yesterday’s tender.
• Ukraine’s 2018 grain harvest is likely to rise 13% y/y to a record high of 70.2mln t, helped by high corn output forecast to jump 43% y/y to 42.7mln t, with yields rising 40% to 7.69t/ha.

Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’19 Settle £175.60/t – up £0.35/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €200.00 – up €1.00/tonne from previous close

CBOT Jan ’19 Soybeans Settle - $9.0950/bushel – down 4.00 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle - $3.7200/bushel – down 2.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.0525/bushel – down 9.25 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1195

GBP USD 1.2735

EUR GBP 0.8925

EUR USD 1.1370